Data: Climate change
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Çoban, Mert
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IEEE
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Climate change poses a significant threat to agricultural productivity, particularly in semi-arid regions where water availability and temperature fluctuations directly affect crop yields. This study investigates the relationship between long-term climatic trends and wheat production across selected provinces in Central and Southeastern Anatolia between 1980 and 2020. Using meteorological datasets (temperature, precipitation, and evapotranspiration) and agricultural yield statistics, we applied multiple linear regression and time-series analyses to quantify the sensitivity of wheat yields to changing climatic variables. Results indicate a statistically significant negative correlation between average temperature increases and yield levels, while moderate rainfall improvements partly offset yield losses in certain years. Model simulations under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios suggest an expected yield decline of 10–18% by 2050 if adaptation measures remain limited. The findings emphasize the urgent need for climate-resilient crop varieties, sustainable irrigation practices, and region-specific adaptation strategies to mitigate the adverse effects of climate change on food security in Anatolia.
Subject
Climate, Agroecology
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Creative Commons license
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