Trading economic for security performance: shifting voters' agenda during 2023 Turkish elections

Abstract

This study examines the changing impact of economic and security performance evaluations on support for the incumbent president during the 2023 Turkish election campaign, contributing to the literature on economic voting and electoral strategies in hybrid regimes. Using a three-wave panel survey, we find that the effects of these evaluations fluctuate throughout the campaign. Four months before the elections, economic evaluations had a stronger impact on support for Erdoğan than security evaluations. However, 1 month before the elections, security evaluations became more influential. Six weeks after the elections, security compared to economic evaluations remained more significant than economic evaluations, though the gap narrowed. This temporal change coincides with shifts diagnosed in the literature attributed to Erdoğan’s strategic emphasis on security over economic challenges. The findings suggest that incumbents in competitive authoritarian regimes can use their privileged policy tools, such as media access, to shift the campaign agenda towards favorable issues, even during economic downturns, to survive the unfavorable performance conditions.