Mountain moves: spatial interaction modelling of Bulgaria's internal migration (1934-1992)

Abstract

Bulgaria experienced dramatic rural decline alongside rapid urban growth during the 20th century, shaped by both demographic pressures and socioeconomic change. Today, it remains one of Europe's fastest-declining populations, underlining the importance of understanding long-term migration dynamics. Understanding these migration dynamics is essential for interpreting the country's broader population shifts. This study provides a spatial analysis of internal migration in Bulgaria from 1934 to 1992. We construct a harmonised geocoded census settlement dataset, combining historical population records with geospatial settlement boundaries, road network data, and terrain ruggedness measures. Distances between settlements are calculated using both Euclidean and road-network measures, and terrain effects are quantified through terrain ruggedness indices. Migration flows are estimated using spatial interaction models (SIMs), parameterised by population scaling and distance decay functions. Model outputs are validated against historical benchmarks and aggregated regional flows, as well as on the settlement level, by intercensal period variability, ensuring robustness between the intercensal periods. Our analysis investigates the role of challenging topography in shaping migration flows, showing how mountainous landscapes constrained movement while facilitating concentrated urban growth. By integrating historical census records with spatial modelling and geospatial analysis, we uncover local migration dynamics that remain invisible at larger scales. Although our study does not offer direct policy advice, it provides a quantified geospatial perspective on historical context for contemporary policy debates and urban planning initiatives in a country that has experienced both significant rural decline and rapid urbanisation. The findings shed new light on Bulgaria's population history and provide a framework for understanding the interplay between landscape features and migration dynamics.