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Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14288/3
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Item Metadata only Holdup, knowledge transferability, and productivity: theory and evidence from knowledge workers(John Wiley and Sons Inc, 2023) 0000-0003-3160-394X; Wehrheim, David; Department of Economics; Ekinci, Emre; Faculty Member; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; 309364This article studies how firing costs affect the productivity of knowledge workers. We develop a holdup model in which workers are essential to knowledge transfer between firms and show that if the worker's knowledge stock is sufficiently transferable to competing firms, an increase in firing costs inhibits the firm's ability to hold up the worker and thereby leads to higher effort. We consider the passage of the wrongful discharge laws in the US as an exogenous increase in firing costs and test our theory using data on patents filed at the United States Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO). © 2023 The Editorial Board of The Journal of Industrial Economics and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.Item Metadata only Youth responses to political populism: education abroad as a step toward emigration(Academic Press Inc Elsevier Science, 2023) 0000-0002-3255-2809; Department of Economics; Demirci, Murat; Faculty Member; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; 272082Populism is on the rise, and democratic rights are deteriorating in many countries as a result of authoritarian policies adopted by populist leaders. This study analyzes how rising political populism in developing countries affects whether their citizens pursue higher education abroad. Applying the Synthetic Control Method, student migration patterns from Hungary, Ukraine, Venezuela, and Indonesia are explored as cases constituting early examples of authoritarian populism. The estimates show that the rise of authoritarianism after the closely contested elec-tions that result in favor of the populist leaders in these countries increases the number of citizens who attend universities in foreign countries. Finding limited evidence for worsening higher ed-ucation options in the origin countries suggests that more students start pursuing foreign edu-cation to increase their chances of living abroad after graduation. Emigration of skilled citizens from developing countries as a consequence of political populism is likely to constitute a threat to the economic performance of these countries in the long-term.Item Metadata only Debating voter defection in Turkey(Routledge Journals, Taylor & Francis Ltd, 2023) 0000-0003-4087-168X; Balta, Evren; Demiralp, Seda; Department of Economics; Demiralp, Selva; Faculty Member; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; 42533This study examines patterns of voter defection from Turkey's incumbent AKP amid major economic and democratic decline. As in other electoral autocracies, defectors constitute a small but politically significant group in Turkey, where the opposition's ability to secure a transition from authoritarianism depends on reducing the incumbent's vote share. Based on survey data gathered in November 2021 and February 2022, we find that while the high level of partizanship among AKP voters hinders defection, persistent economic and democratic decline still reduces incumbent support. We also found that defections are higher outside of the lowest income group. Our findings have important implications for opposition strategies in electoral autocracies. Directing public debate away from identity issues to economic and democratic problems increases the likelihood of defection. In addition, offering voters clear superior alternatives decreases the cost of uncertainty that comes with change and increases the likelihood of defection.Item Metadata only COVID-19 and emerging markets: a SIR model, demand shocks and capital flows(Elsevier, 2023) 0000-0002-4688-2788; 0000-0003-4087-168X; 0000-0001-9446-6220; 0000-0003-2826-1766; Ozcan, Sebnem Kalemli; Department of Economics; Department of Economics; Department of Economics; Department of Economics; Çakmaklı, Cem; Demiralp, Selva; Yeşiltaş, Sevcan; Yıldırım, Muhammed Ali; Faculty Member; Faculty Member; Faculty Member; Faculty Member; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; 107818; 42533; 258768; 219280We quantify the macroeconomic effects of COVID-19 for a small open economy. We use a two-country framework combined with a sectoral SIR model to estimate the effects of collapses in foreign demand and supply. The small open economy (country one) suffers from domestic demand and supply shocks due to its own pandemic. In addition, there are external shocks coming from the rest of the world (country two). Aggregate exports of the small open economy decline when foreign demand goes down, and aggregate imports suffer from lockdowns in the rest of the world. We calibrate the model to Turkey. Our results show that the optimal policy, which yields the lowest output loss and saves the maximum number of lives, for the small open economy, is an early and globally coordinated full lockdown of 39 days.Item Metadata only Using survey information for improving the density nowcasting of U.S. GDP(Taylor and Francis Ltd., 2023) 0000-0002-4688-2788; Demircan, Hamza; Department of Economics; Çakmaklı, Cem; Faculty Member; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; 107818We provide a methodology that efficiently combines the statistical models of nowcasting with the survey information for improving the (density) nowcasting of U.S. real GDP. Specifically, we use the conventional dynamic factor model together with stochastic volatility components as the baseline statistical model. We augment the model with information from the survey expectations by aligning the first and second moments of the predictive distribution implied by this baseline model with those extracted from the survey information at various horizons. Results indicate that survey information bears valuable information over the baseline model for nowcasting GDP. While the mean survey predictions deliver valuable information during extreme events such as the Covid-19 pandemic, the variation in the survey participants’ predictions, often used as a measure of “ambiguity,” conveys crucial information beyond the mean of those predictions for capturing the tail behavior of the GDP distribution.Publication Metadata only On the past, present, and future of the Diebold-Yilmaz approach to dynamic network connectedness(Elsevier Science Sa, 2023) Diebold, Francis X.; Department of Economics; Department of Economics; Yılmaz, Kamil; College of Administrative Sciences and EconomicsWe offer retrospective and prospective assessments of the Diebold-Yilmaz connected-ness research program, combined with personal recollections of its development. Its centerpiece in many respects is Diebold and Yilmaz (2014), around which our discussion is organized.Publication Metadata only On the network topology of variance decompositions: measuring the connectedness of financial firms (Reprinted from Journal of Econometrics, Vol 182, Issue 1, September 2014, Pages 119-134)(Elsevier Science Sa, 2023) Diebold, Francis X.; Department of Economics; Department of Economics; Yılmaz, Kamil; College of Administrative Sciences and EconomicsWe propose several connectedness measures built from pieces of variance decomposi-tions, and we argue that they provide natural and insightful measures of connectedness. We also show that variance decompositions define weighted, directed networks, so that our connectedness measures are intimately related to key measures of connectedness used in the network literature. Building on these insights, we track daily time-varying connectedness of major U.S. financial institutions' stock return volatilities in recent years, with emphasis on the financial crisis of 2007-2008.Publication Metadata only Economic costs of friendshoring(Wiley, 2024) Javorcik, Beata; Kitzmueller, Lucas; Schweiger, Helena; Department of Economics; Department of Economics; Yıldırım, Muhammed Ali; College of Administrative Sciences and EconomicsGeo-political tensions and disruptions to global value chains have led policymakers to re-evaluate their approach to globalisation. Many countries are considering friendshoring - trading primarily with countries sharing similar values - as a way of minimising exposure to weaponisation of trade and securing access to critical inputs. If followed through, this process has the potential to reverse global economic integration of recent decades. This article estimates the economic costs of friendshoring using a quantitative model incorporating inter-country inter-industry linkages. The results suggest that friendshoring may lead to real GDP losses of up to 4.7% of GDP in some economies. Thus, although friendshoring may provide insurance against extreme disruptions and increase the security of supply of vital inputs, it would come at a substantial cost.Publication Metadata only Is there a virtuous cycle between wages and productivity? Turkish experience after the transition to democracy(Elsevier Ltd, 2024) Taymaz, Erol; Voyvoda, Ebru; Department of Economics; Department of Economics; Yılmaz, Kamil; College of Administrative Sciences and EconomicsWe analyze the behavior of plant-level real wages and productivity in Turkish manufacturing after the transition to democracy in 1987 and test for the direction of the causality between these two variables. The Turkish experience is almost an experimental case because successive governments after 1987 let real wages increase rapidly under the pressure of intensifying political competition. Real wages in state-owned enterprises increased by nearly 200% from 1988 to 1993, followed by a 130% increase in real wages in private manufacturing. Our analysis shows that labor and total factor productivity increased at an unprecedented rate during the same period in response to the exogenous wage hikes. Econometric estimates provide strong empirical evidence supporting the hypothesis that there is a bi-directional relationship between wages and productivity, and wage increases do not reduce surplus because the increase in productivity (value added per worker) compensates for increasing wages. © 2023 Elsevier LtdPublication Metadata only You will: a macroeconomic analysis of digital advertising(Oxford University Press, 2024) Greenwood, Jeremy; Ma, Yueyuan; Department of Economics; Department of Economics; Yörükoğlu, Mehmet; College of Administrative Sciences and EconomicsAn information-based model is developed where traditional and digital advertising finance the provision of free media goods and affect price competition. Digital advertising is directed toward specific consumers while traditional advertising is undirected. The equilibrium is suboptimal. Media goods, if valued by the consumer, are under provided with both types of advertising. Additionally, traditional advertising is excessive because it is undirected. The tax-cum-subsidy policy that overcomes these inefficiencies is characterized. The model is calibrated to the U.S. economy. Through the lens of the calibrated model, digital advertising increases welfare significantly. The welfare gain from the optimal policy is much smaller than the gain from digital advertising.