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Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14288/3
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Publication Metadata only On the past, present, and future of the Diebold-Yilmaz approach to dynamic network connectedness(Elsevier Science Sa, 2023) Diebold, Francis X.; Department of Economics; Yılmaz, Kamil; Department of Economics; College of Administrative Sciences and EconomicsWe offer retrospective and prospective assessments of the Diebold-Yilmaz connected-ness research program, combined with personal recollections of its development. Its centerpiece in many respects is Diebold and Yilmaz (2014), around which our discussion is organized.Publication Metadata only On the network topology of variance decompositions: measuring the connectedness of financial firms (Reprinted from Journal of Econometrics, Vol 182, Issue 1, September 2014, Pages 119-134)(Elsevier Science Sa, 2023) Diebold, Francis X.; Department of Economics; Yılmaz, Kamil; Department of Economics; College of Administrative Sciences and EconomicsWe propose several connectedness measures built from pieces of variance decomposi-tions, and we argue that they provide natural and insightful measures of connectedness. We also show that variance decompositions define weighted, directed networks, so that our connectedness measures are intimately related to key measures of connectedness used in the network literature. Building on these insights, we track daily time-varying connectedness of major U.S. financial institutions' stock return volatilities in recent years, with emphasis on the financial crisis of 2007-2008.Publication Metadata only Stratified partial likelihood estimation(Elsevier, 1999) Ridder, Gert; Department of Economics; Tunalı, Fehmi İnsan; Faculty Member; Department of Economics; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; 105635When multiple durations are generated by a single unit, they may be related in a way that is not fully captured by the regressors. The omitted unit-specific variables might vary over the durations, They might also be correlated with the variables in the regression component. We propose an estimator that responds to these concerns and develop a specification test for detecting unobserved unit-specific effects, Data from Malaysia reveal that concentration of child mortality in some families is imperfectly explained by observed explanatory variables, and that failure to control for unobserved heterogeneity seriously biases the parameter estimates.Publication Metadata only Testing for co-integration and nonlinear adjustment in a smooth transition error correction model(Wiley, 2011) N/A; Department of Economics; Kılıç, Rehim; Faculty Member; Department of Economics; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; N/AThis article introduces a testing procedure for cointegration and nonlinear adjustment in a smooth transition vector error correction model. To overcome the unidentified parameters problem under the null of no-cointegration, the Wald statistic is optimized over the unidentified parameter space. The asymptotic distribution of the test statistic is shown to be non-standard but nuisance parameter-free and hence critical values are obtained by simulations, Simulations show that the proposed test outperforms the alternatives in small sample sizes both in terms of size and power. Application to the exchange rate-monetary fundamentals relationship show that the proposed test works considerably well. This article also finds that nonlinear adjustment dynamics are symmetric for some currencies and therefore the speed of adjustment depends on the size of the deviations and is asymmetric for others, hence, the adjustment dynamics depend not only on the size but also on the sign of the deviations.Publication Metadata only Testing for a unit root in a stationary ESTAR process(Taylor & Francis Inc, 2011) N/A; Department of Economics; Kılıç, Rehim; Faculty Member; Department of Economics; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; N/AThis article develops a statistic for testing the null of a linear unit root process against the alternative of a stationary exponential smooth transition autoregressive model. The asymptotic distribution of the test is shown to be nonstandard but nuisance parameter-free and hence critical values are obtained by simulations. Simulations show that the proposed statistic has considerable power under various data generating scenarios. Applications to real exchange rates also illustrate the ability of our test to reject null of unit root when some of the alternative tests do not.Publication Metadata only Weak convergence to a matrix stochastic integral with stable processes(Cambridge Univ Press, 1997) Department of Economics; Caner, Mehmet; Faculty Member; Department of Economics; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; N/AThis paper generalizes the univariate results of Chan and Tran (1989, Econometric Theory 5, 354-362) and Phillips (1990, Econometric Theory 6, 44-62) to multivariate time series. We develop the limit theory for the least-squares estimate of a VAR(1) for a random walk with independent and identically distributed errors and for I(1) processes with weakly dependent errors whose distributions are in the domain of attraction of a stable law. The limit laws are represented by functionals of a stable process. A semiparametric correction is used in order to asymptotically eliminate the ''bias'' term in the limit law. These results are also an extension of the multivariate limit theory for square-integrable disturbances derived by Phillips and Durlauf (1986, Review of Economic Studies 53, 473-495). Potential applications include tests for multivariate unit roots and cointegration.Publication Metadata only Parameter estimation in nonlinear AR-GARCH models(Cambridge Univ Press, 2011) Saikkonen, Pentti; Department of Economics; Meitz, Mika; Faculty Member; Department of Economics; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; N/AThis paper develops an asymptotic estimation theory for nonlinear autoregressive models with conditionally heteroskedastic errors. We consider a general nonlinear autoregression of order p (AR(p)) with the conditional variance specified as a general nonlinear first-order generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH(1,1)) model. We do not require the rescaled errors to be independent, but instead only to form a stationary and ergodic martingale difference sequence. Strong consistency and asymptotic normality of the global Gaussian quasi-maximum likelihood (QML) estimator are established under conditions comparable to those recently used in the corresponding linear case. To the best of our knowledge, this paper provides the first results on consistency and asymptotic normality of the QML estimator in nonlinear autoregressive models with GARCH errors.Publication Metadata only Partial derivatives, comparative risk behavior and concavity of utility functions(Elsevier, 2003) N/A; Department of Economics; Lajeri-Chaherli, Fatma; Faculty Member; Department of Economics; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; N/AWe use the comparative risk behavior of the partial derivatives to address a long standing problem in mean-variance analysis: What does the concavity of utility functions mean? It is well known that, when mean-variance preferences are derived from expected utility and normal distributions, concavity is equivalent to decreasing prudence. In this paper, we derive conditions that link concavity to prudence in a general mean-standard deviation case.Publication Metadata only On the network topology of variance decompositions: measuring the connectedness of financial firms(Elsevier Science Sa, 2014) Diebold, Francis X.; Department of Economics; Yılmaz, Kamil; Faculty Member; Department of Economics; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; 6111We propose several connectedness measures built from pieces of variance decompositions, and we argue that they provide natural and insightful measures of connectedness. We also show that variance decompositions define weighted, directed networks, so that our connectedness measures are intimately related to key measures of connectedness used in the network literature. Building on these insights, we track daily time-varying connectedness of major US financial institutions' stock return volatilities in recent years, with emphasis on the financial crisis of 2007-2008.Publication Metadata only Tests for cointegration with infinite variance errors(Elsevier Science Sa, 1998) Department of Economics; Caner, Mehmet; Faculty Member; Department of Economics; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; N/AThis paper develops the asymptotic theory for residual-based tests and quasi-likelihood ratio tests for cointegration under the assumption of infinite variance errors. This article extends the results of Phillips and Ouliaris (1990) and Johansen (1988, 1991) which are derived under the assumption of square-integrable errors. Here the limit laws are expressed in terms of functionals of symmetric stable laws rather than Brownian motion. Critical values of the residual-based tests of Phillips and Ouliaris (1990) and likelihood-ratio-based tests of Johansen (1991) are calculated and tabulated. We also investigate whether these tests are robust to infinite variance errors. We found that regardless of the index of stability a, the residual-based tests are more robust to infinite variance errors than the likelihood-ratio-based tests. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science S.A. All rights reserved.