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Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14288/3
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Publication Metadata only The role of information in auctions(Elsevier Inc., 2024) Ekmekci, Mehmet; Department of Economics; Atakan, Alp Enver; Department of Economics; College of Administrative Sciences and EconomicsThis review discusses the seminal contributions of Engelbrecht-Wiggans et al. (1983) Milgrom and Weber (1982a) to the literature that studies the role of information in auctions. We describe the results in these papers and present several extensions. Much of the earlier literature on auctions takes the information environment as exogenous. The extensions that we present will demonstrate how the insights of Engelbrecht-Wiggans et al. (1983) and Milgrom and Weber (1982a) apply to the more recent literature on flexible information acquisition in auctions where the information structure is endogenously determined in equilibrium.Publication Metadata only On the past, present, and future of the Diebold-Yilmaz approach to dynamic network connectedness(Elsevier Science Sa, 2023) Diebold, Francis X.; Department of Economics; Yılmaz, Kamil; Department of Economics; College of Administrative Sciences and EconomicsWe offer retrospective and prospective assessments of the Diebold-Yilmaz connected-ness research program, combined with personal recollections of its development. Its centerpiece in many respects is Diebold and Yilmaz (2014), around which our discussion is organized.Publication Metadata only Survey data, expectations and the macroeconomy(Elsevier, 2023) Beckmann, Joscha; Czudaj, Robert L.; Department of Economics; Yılmaz, Kamil; Department of Economics; College of Administrative Sciences and EconomicsN/APublication Metadata only Macro-financial spillovers(Elsevier Sci Ltd, 2023) Cotter, John; Hallam, Mark; Department of Economics; Yılmaz, Kamil; Department of Economics; College of Administrative Sciences and EconomicsWe analyse spillovers between the real and financial sides of the US economy, and between those in the US and other advanced economies. The approach developed allows for differ-ences in sampling frequency between financial and macroeconomic data. We find that financial markets are typically net transmitters of shocks to the real side of the economy, particularly during turbulent market conditions. This result holds both for domestic US macro-financial spillovers, and also those between the US and other advanced economies. Our macro-financial spillover measures are found to have significant predictive ability for future macroeconomic conditions in both in-sample and out-of-sample forecasting envi-ronments. Furthermore, the predictive ability frequently of our macro-financial measures frequently exceeds that of purely financial systemic risk measures previously employed in the literature for the same task.Publication Metadata only On the network topology of variance decompositions: measuring the connectedness of financial firms (Reprinted from Journal of Econometrics, Vol 182, Issue 1, September 2014, Pages 119-134)(Elsevier Science Sa, 2023) Diebold, Francis X.; Department of Economics; Yılmaz, Kamil; Department of Economics; College of Administrative Sciences and EconomicsWe propose several connectedness measures built from pieces of variance decomposi-tions, and we argue that they provide natural and insightful measures of connectedness. We also show that variance decompositions define weighted, directed networks, so that our connectedness measures are intimately related to key measures of connectedness used in the network literature. Building on these insights, we track daily time-varying connectedness of major U.S. financial institutions' stock return volatilities in recent years, with emphasis on the financial crisis of 2007-2008.Publication Metadata only Economic costs of friendshoring(Wiley, 2024) Javorcik, Beata; Kitzmueller, Lucas; Schweiger, Helena; Department of Economics; Yıldırım, Muhammed Ali; Department of Economics; College of Administrative Sciences and EconomicsGeo-political tensions and disruptions to global value chains have led policymakers to re-evaluate their approach to globalisation. Many countries are considering friendshoring - trading primarily with countries sharing similar values - as a way of minimising exposure to weaponisation of trade and securing access to critical inputs. If followed through, this process has the potential to reverse global economic integration of recent decades. This article estimates the economic costs of friendshoring using a quantitative model incorporating inter-country inter-industry linkages. The results suggest that friendshoring may lead to real GDP losses of up to 4.7% of GDP in some economies. Thus, although friendshoring may provide insurance against extreme disruptions and increase the security of supply of vital inputs, it would come at a substantial cost.Publication Metadata only Is there a virtuous cycle between wages and productivity? Turkish experience after the transition to democracy(Elsevier Ltd, 2024) Taymaz, Erol; Voyvoda, Ebru; Department of Economics; Yılmaz, Kamil; Department of Economics; College of Administrative Sciences and EconomicsWe analyze the behavior of plant-level real wages and productivity in Turkish manufacturing after the transition to democracy in 1987 and test for the direction of the causality between these two variables. The Turkish experience is almost an experimental case because successive governments after 1987 let real wages increase rapidly under the pressure of intensifying political competition. Real wages in state-owned enterprises increased by nearly 200% from 1988 to 1993, followed by a 130% increase in real wages in private manufacturing. Our analysis shows that labor and total factor productivity increased at an unprecedented rate during the same period in response to the exogenous wage hikes. Econometric estimates provide strong empirical evidence supporting the hypothesis that there is a bi-directional relationship between wages and productivity, and wage increases do not reduce surplus because the increase in productivity (value added per worker) compensates for increasing wages. Ā© 2023 Elsevier LtdPublication Metadata only You will: a macroeconomic analysis of digital advertising(Oxford University Press, 2024) Greenwood, Jeremy; Ma, Yueyuan; Department of Economics; YƶrĆ¼koÄlu, Mehmet; Department of Economics; College of Administrative Sciences and EconomicsAn information-based model is developed where traditional and digital advertising finance the provision of free media goods and affect price competition. Digital advertising is directed toward specific consumers while traditional advertising is undirected. The equilibrium is suboptimal. Media goods, if valued by the consumer, are under provided with both types of advertising. Additionally, traditional advertising is excessive because it is undirected. The tax-cum-subsidy policy that overcomes these inefficiencies is characterized. The model is calibrated to the U.S. economy. Through the lens of the calibrated model, digital advertising increases welfare significantly. The welfare gain from the optimal policy is much smaller than the gain from digital advertising.Publication Metadata only Bridging the Covid-19 data and the epidemiological model using the time-varying parameter SIRD model(Elsevier Sci Ltd, 2024) ÅimÅek, Yasin; Department of Economics; Ćakmaklı, Cem; Department of Economics; College of Administrative Sciences and EconomicsThis paper extends the canonical model of epidemiology, the SIRD model, to allow for timevarying parameters for real-time measurement and prediction of the trajectory of the Covid-19 pandemic. Time variation in model parameters is captured using the score -driven modeling structure designed for the typical daily count data related to the pandemic. The resulting specification permits a flexible yet parsimonious model with a low computational cost. The model is extended to allow for unreported cases using a mixed -frequency setting. Results suggest that these cases' effects on the parameter estimates might be sizeable. Full sample results show that the flexible framework accurately captures the successive waves of the pandemic. A realtime exercise indicates that the proposed structure delivers timely and precise information on the pandemic's current stance. This superior performance, in turn, transforms into accurate predictions of the death cases and cases treated in Intensive Care Units (ICUs).Publication Metadata only The impact of Covid-19 on the willingness to work in teams(Elsevier B.V., 2024) Divle, Sunduz; Gumren, Mert; Department of Economics; ErtaƧ, Seda; Department of Economics; College of Administrative Sciences and EconomicsThis paper studies the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on individualsā willingness to work in teams, using an online experiment. We implement a setup where individuals can choose to work on a real effort task either individually or together with a partner through online interaction. We find that although working in a team is more profitable and participants also expect this, a large fraction makes a financially costly decision by shying away from teamwork. Moreover, participants primed with COVID-19 are less likely to self-select into teamwork in a dynamic setting with two team selection periods, with the effect coming mainly from the second selection period, after a random fraction of participants are exogenously assigned to teamwork. We find that in addition to COVID-19 salience, social confidence, the willingness to socialize, and prior exposure to teamwork are significant predictors of the decision to join or avoid socially interactive work environments. Our findings provide insights into the potential impact of the pandemic on social interactions in a work setting. Ā© 2024 Elsevier B.V.