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Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14288/3
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Item Metadata only An empirical study of sequential offer bargaining during the Festival of Sacrifice(Elsevier, 2024) 0000-0002-5077-5555; Dindaroglu, Burak; Department of Economics; Ertaç, Seda; Faculty Member; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; 107102We report results from a unique data set of real -life bargaining transactions collected from the market for livestock (sheep) before the Festival of Sacrifice (Eid al-Adha) in Izmir, Turkey. This market is characterized by frequent and aggressive bargaining, which occurs in the form of sequential price offers. We record bargaining transactions as they occur, and collect detailed information on the bargaining environment, as well as on the characteristics of buyers and sellers. We also elicit each seller's outside option by means of an incentive compatible mechanism and obtain a reported maximum willingness to pay from buyers. We particularly focus on aspects of the bargaining process, such as non -price communication. In different types of empirical analysis, results robustly indicate that the presence and content of communication matters, for the likelihood of a sale as well as concessions made. Specifically, buyer -side communication is associated with larger concessions from the seller and a higher probability of sale. The presence of a mediator during the negotiation is associated with a higher probability of sale as well, while it has no effect on prices. We also provide results on the relative importance of groups of variables for predicting bargaining outcomes, which can provide directions for further research in bargaining.Item Metadata only Holdup, knowledge transferability, and productivity: theory and evidence from knowledge workers(John Wiley and Sons Inc, 2023) 0000-0003-3160-394X; Wehrheim, David; Department of Economics; Ekinci, Emre; Faculty Member; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; 309364This article studies how firing costs affect the productivity of knowledge workers. We develop a holdup model in which workers are essential to knowledge transfer between firms and show that if the worker's knowledge stock is sufficiently transferable to competing firms, an increase in firing costs inhibits the firm's ability to hold up the worker and thereby leads to higher effort. We consider the passage of the wrongful discharge laws in the US as an exogenous increase in firing costs and test our theory using data on patents filed at the United States Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO). © 2023 The Editorial Board of The Journal of Industrial Economics and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.Item Metadata only Youth responses to political populism: education abroad as a step toward emigration(Academic Press Inc Elsevier Science, 2023) 0000-0002-3255-2809; Department of Economics; Demirci, Murat; Faculty Member; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; 272082Populism is on the rise, and democratic rights are deteriorating in many countries as a result of authoritarian policies adopted by populist leaders. This study analyzes how rising political populism in developing countries affects whether their citizens pursue higher education abroad. Applying the Synthetic Control Method, student migration patterns from Hungary, Ukraine, Venezuela, and Indonesia are explored as cases constituting early examples of authoritarian populism. The estimates show that the rise of authoritarianism after the closely contested elec-tions that result in favor of the populist leaders in these countries increases the number of citizens who attend universities in foreign countries. Finding limited evidence for worsening higher ed-ucation options in the origin countries suggests that more students start pursuing foreign edu-cation to increase their chances of living abroad after graduation. Emigration of skilled citizens from developing countries as a consequence of political populism is likely to constitute a threat to the economic performance of these countries in the long-term.Item Metadata only Do financial markets respond to populist rhetoric?(John Wiley and Sons Inc, 2023) 0000-0003-4087-168X; Çakmakli, Cem; Güneş, Gökhan Şahin; Department of Economics; Demiralp, Selva; Faculty Member; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; 42533With the global rise in populism over the last decade, there has been an increase in political commentaries (PC) by leaders that criticize their central banks and argue for lower interest rates. We analyse the effects of PCs on exchange rates, bond yields, and the risk premium for six countries that are subject to political pressures. Utilizing a specification with time-varying parameters, we show that PCs affect the level and the volatility of exchange rates, bond yields and the risk premium in Turkey. The response increases over time. In other countries, there is a significant impact on exchange rate volatility.Item Metadata only The effect of venture capital backing on innovation in newly public firms(Elsevier, 2023) 0000-0002-7136-4640; Aldatmaz, Serdar; Department of Business Administration; Çelikyurt, Uğur; Faculty Member; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; 47082We study the effect of VC-backing on innovation in newly public firms and find that it is negatively related to patents produced and citations received within the initial years following an IPO - our estimates indicate that VC-backed firms produce 13% fewer patents than nonVC-backed firms within the first year post-IPO. Our findings suggest that this adverse effect is a consequence of VCs timing their portfolio companies' IPOs at the peak of innovation followed by a decline post-IPO. Additionally, VC-backing leads to higher growth in sales and productivity in newly public firms pointing to a shift in VC focus from creating into commercializing innovation post-IPO. We address endogeneity concerns with an instrumental variables approach.Item Metadata only Pandeminin Sektörel Maliyetleri: Ticarete Açık Olmanın Rolü Nedir?(Istanbul University Press, 2022) 0000-0002-4688-2788; 0000-0003-4087-168X; 0000-0001-9446-6220; 0000-0003-2826-1766; Cakmakli, Cem; Demiralp, Selva; Yesiltas, Sevcan; Yildirim, Muhammed A.; Department of Economics; Department of Economics; Department of Economics; Department of Economics; Çakmaklı, Cem; Demiralp, Selva; Yeşiltaş, Sevcan; Yıldırım, Muhammed Ali; Faculty Member; Faculty Member; Faculty Member; Faculty Member; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; 107818; 42533; 258768; 219280Bu çalışmada pandemi döneminde oluşan şokların ülkeler üzerinde sektörel düzeyde maliyetleri incelenmiş, bu maliyetlerin ülkelerin ve sektörlerin dış ticarete açıklığıyla ilişkisi analiz edilmiştir. Çalışmada sektörel seviyede arz ve talep ilişkilerini ele alan bir model kullanılmıştır. Bu modelde OECD ülkelerarası girdi-çıktı tablosu kullanılarak ülkeler ve sektörler arasındaki ekonomik bağlantılar kullanılarak arz ve talep taraflı şokların ekonomi üzerine etkisi ölçülmektedir. Arz ve talep yanlı şoklar pandeminin gidişatına bağlı olarak hesaplanmış daha sonra bu şokların sektörlere etkisi ele alınmıştır. Bu etkiler incelenirken özellikle ülkelerin dışa açıklığı yani ülkelerin Gayrisafi Yurtiçi Hasılası (GSYH) içinde ihracat ve ithalatın payları göz önüne alınmıştır. Pandeminin ülke ekonomilerine dış ticaret yoluyla etkisi ihracat ve ithalat kanallarıyla olmak üzere iki yönlüdür. İhracat açısından bakıldığında, pandemi döneminde ticaret ortaklarında gözlenen ekonomik yavaşlama dışa açık bir ülkenin ihracat imkanlarını da yavaşlatmaktadır. İthalat açısından bakıldığında ise pandemi döneminde üretimde yaşanan aksamalar tedarik zincirleri vasıtasıyla tüm dünyaya sirayet ederek ithal girdilerin tedariğinde sorunlara sebep olmuştur. Bu bağlamda bu makalede elde edilen sonuçlar da dışa açık ülkelerin pandemi döneminde daha ağır ekonomik kayıplar yaşadıklarını göstermektedir. Bu sonuç, dışa açık olan ülkelerin pandemi kaynaklı talep daralması ve tedarik zinciri sorunlarına daha fazla maruz kalmaları ile tutarlıdır. Bu bulgu özellikle farklı dışa açıklık yapısı olan Türkiye ve Brezilya örnekleri üzerinden gösterilmiştir. Ticarete açıklığı yüksek bir gelişen pazar olan Türkiye ve görece daha kapalı olan Brezilya arasında pandemi dönemi maliyetlerini karşılaştırdığımızda Türkiye için hesaplanan maliyetlerin daha yüksek olduğu görülmüştür. Sonuçlara daha ayrıntılı baktığımızda, Türkiye’de arz sıkıntıları nedeni ile sektörel maliyetlerin genele yayıldığı, üretiminde ithal ara malına bağımlılığı yüksek olan gayrimenkul, inşaat, imalat gibi sektörlerde kayıpların Brezilya’dan daha yüksek olduğu gözlenmektedir. Benzer bir karşılaştırmayı iki gelişmiş ülke olan ABD ve Hollanda arasında yaptığımızda da dışa açıklığı yüksek olan Hollanda’nın daha yüksek maliyet ödediği gözlenmiştir. / This study investigates the sectoral costs of the shocks during the pandemic period and analyzes the relationship of these costs with the openness of countries and sectors to trade. We use a model that focuses on the demand and supply side relations at the sectoral level. This model measures the effect of supply and demand-side shocks on the economy by exploiting the economic linkages between countries and their sectors using OECD Intercountry InputOutput tables. We compute supply and demand-side shocks concerning the course of the pandemic, and we consider the effects of these shocks on the sectors. The openness of the countries, or the proportions of exports and imports in the GDP of the countries, was taken into consideration when analyzing these effects. The pandemic's impact on the nation's economies through trade, such as through import and export channels, is bidirectional. When it comes to exports, the economic downturn seen among trading partners during the pandemic era likewise reduces an open country's export potential. From the point of view of imports, the disruptions in production and supply chains during the pandemic period spread to the whole world through supply chains and caused problems in the supply of imported inputs. In this context, the results obtained in this article show that open countries have experienced heavier economic losses during the pandemic period. This result is consistent with the fact that open countries are more exposed to demand contraction and supply chain problems due to the pandemic. This finding is demonstrated by considering Turkey and Brazil as two examples, which have different openness structures. When we compare the costs of the pandemic period between Turkey, which is an emerging market with a high openness to trade, and Brazil, which is a relatively closed economy, it is seen that the costs computed for Turkey are higher. When we focus on the results in more detail, we observe that the sectoral costs are widespread in Turkey due to supply problems, and losses in sectors such as real estate, construction, and manufacturing, which have a high dependence on imported intermediate goods in their production, are higher than in Brazil. When we compare the US and the Netherlands, two developed countries, we find that the Netherlands, with its high level of openness, has higher costs.Item Metadata only COVID-19 and emerging markets: a SIR model, demand shocks and capital flows(Elsevier, 2023) 0000-0002-4688-2788; 0000-0003-4087-168X; 0000-0001-9446-6220; 0000-0003-2826-1766; Ozcan, Sebnem Kalemli; Department of Economics; Department of Economics; Department of Economics; Department of Economics; Çakmaklı, Cem; Demiralp, Selva; Yeşiltaş, Sevcan; Yıldırım, Muhammed Ali; Faculty Member; Faculty Member; Faculty Member; Faculty Member; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; 107818; 42533; 258768; 219280We quantify the macroeconomic effects of COVID-19 for a small open economy. We use a two-country framework combined with a sectoral SIR model to estimate the effects of collapses in foreign demand and supply. The small open economy (country one) suffers from domestic demand and supply shocks due to its own pandemic. In addition, there are external shocks coming from the rest of the world (country two). Aggregate exports of the small open economy decline when foreign demand goes down, and aggregate imports suffer from lockdowns in the rest of the world. We calibrate the model to Turkey. Our results show that the optimal policy, which yields the lowest output loss and saves the maximum number of lives, for the small open economy, is an early and globally coordinated full lockdown of 39 days.Item Metadata only Using survey information for improving the density nowcasting of U.S. GDP(Taylor and Francis Ltd., 2023) 0000-0002-4688-2788; Demircan, Hamza; Department of Economics; Çakmaklı, Cem; Faculty Member; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; 107818We provide a methodology that efficiently combines the statistical models of nowcasting with the survey information for improving the (density) nowcasting of U.S. real GDP. Specifically, we use the conventional dynamic factor model together with stochastic volatility components as the baseline statistical model. We augment the model with information from the survey expectations by aligning the first and second moments of the predictive distribution implied by this baseline model with those extracted from the survey information at various horizons. Results indicate that survey information bears valuable information over the baseline model for nowcasting GDP. While the mean survey predictions deliver valuable information during extreme events such as the Covid-19 pandemic, the variation in the survey participants’ predictions, often used as a measure of “ambiguity,” conveys crucial information beyond the mean of those predictions for capturing the tail behavior of the GDP distribution.Publication Metadata only The role of information in auctions(Elsevier Inc., 2024) Ekmekci, Mehmet; Department of Economics; Department of Economics; Atakan, Alp Enver; College of Administrative Sciences and EconomicsThis review discusses the seminal contributions of Engelbrecht-Wiggans et al. (1983) Milgrom and Weber (1982a) to the literature that studies the role of information in auctions. We describe the results in these papers and present several extensions. Much of the earlier literature on auctions takes the information environment as exogenous. The extensions that we present will demonstrate how the insights of Engelbrecht-Wiggans et al. (1983) and Milgrom and Weber (1982a) apply to the more recent literature on flexible information acquisition in auctions where the information structure is endogenously determined in equilibrium.Publication Metadata only Imported intermediate goods and product innovation(Elsevier B.V., 2024) Şeker, Murat; Rodriguez-Delgado, Jose Daniel; Department of Business Administration; Department of Business Administration; Ulu, Mehmet Fatih; College of Administrative Sciences and EconomicsWe build a structural model of multi-product firms to illustrate how access to foreign intermediate goods contributes to product innovation. We establish a stochastic dynamic model of firm evolution and allow firms to be heterogeneous in their efficiency levels. The model's mechanism to capture the effects of importing intermediate goods is twofold: (i) importing these goods increases the revenue per each product introduced, and (ii) increases the likelihood of introducing new varieties using newly available inputs. We calibrate the model to firm-level data from India. The model successfully explains the heterogeneous innovation dynamics and statistical moments related to importing and product distribution. Counterfactual exercises further illustrate and quantify the mechanism between trade, innovation performance, and product growth. We find that the critical contribution of trade to growth and product innovation is mainly through access to new imported varieties rather than just the direct import cost. © 2024 Elsevier B.V.