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Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14288/3
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Publication Metadata only Inside job: migration and distributive politics in the European Union(Wiley, 2021) Shehaj, Albana; Shin, Adrian J.; Department of International Relations; Angın, Merih; Faculty Member; Department of International Relations; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; 308500Migration has become a top policy priority of the European Union (EU) in the wake of the 2015 migrant crisis. Given the significant ramifications of non-European immigration for its member states, the EU has implemented a variety of policies to minimize popular backlashes within the borders of its wealthiest member states, which are also popular final destinations for migrants. In this article, we show that the EU offers financial incentives to its migrant-transit mem-ber countries in exchange for holding migrants traveling from the Middle East and North Africa region within their territories. We use a subnational dataset on Southern Italy to examine the effects of migrant arrivals by boat on the amount of the European Regional Development Fund and the European Social Fund received by each autonomous region between 2006 and 2018. In addition, we provide a cross-national analysis of EU expenditures using data on unauthorized border crossings into the EU between 2009 and 2018. We find robust empirical support for the argu-ment that the EU channels more funds to jurisdictions lo-cated on the major migrant-transit routes.Publication Metadata only Vulnerability to purely contagious balance-of-payment crises in emerging economies: an application to the cases of Russia, Turkey, and Brazil(Taylor and Francis, 2001) Zenginobuz, Ünal; Department of Economics; Akçay, Osman Cevdet; Other; Department of Economics; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; N/A[No abstract available]Publication Metadata only Observations on recent monetary policy measures(Bilgesel Yayincilik San & Tic Ltd, 2011) Department of Economics; Üçer, Murat; Faculty Member; Department of Economics; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; N/ALast December, the Central Bank embarked on a new monetary policy experiment, which signaled a paradigm shift of sorts in monetary policy practice in Turkey. On the one hand, what the Bank did was very courageous and timely: it saw the unsustainability of the current account deficit and made an attempt to “remove the punch bowl, as the party was still going”. But the preferred policy mix created a number of question marks in analysts’ minds. We also think a different and a somewhat more comprehensive and simpler route could have been taken in the management of capital inflows, or in the conduct of monetary policy, in particular. In this article, we tried to explain why we thought so, from three perspectives: the context from which the new policy mix has originated; the internal consistency of and the risks associated with the Bank’s approach, and whether it had been successful (as of late March/early April) in achieving the targeted objectives. / Geçen Aralık ayında uygulamaya sokulan para politikası karışımı, yeni bir dönemin başlangıcı oldu, Merkez Bankası para politikası uygulamasında bir nevi paradigma değişikliğine gitti. Merkez Bankası bir yandan bu çıkışıyla çok takdir edilecek bir şey yaptı: önemli bir irade göstererek, tüm hızıyla parti devam ederken, ortalığı biraz sakinleştirmeye karar verdi; cari açık tarafında sürdürülemezliği gördü. Ancak tercih edilen bileşim bir takım soruları da beraberinde getirdi. Kanımızca daha kapsamlı, daha farklı ve aynı zamanda daha anlaşılır bir yöntem izlenebilirdi. Bu makalede neden böyle düşündüğümüzü 3 farklı açıdan – politika bileşiminin çıkış noktası; kendi içsel tutarlılığı ile riskleri, ve şimdiye kadar (Mart sonu/Nisan başı itibariyle) alınan sonuçlar açısından -- değerlendirmeye çalıştık.Publication Metadata only The comparative regression discontinuity (CRD) design: an overview and demonstration of its performance relative to basic RD and the randomized experiment(Jai-Elsevier Science Inc, 2017) Tang, Yang; Cook, Thomas D.; Hock, Heinrich; Chiang, Hanley; Department of Psychology; Sakarya, Yasemin Kisbu; Faculty Member; Department of Psychology; College of Social Sciences and Humanities; 219275Relative to the randomized controlled trial (RCT), the basic regression discontinuity (RD) design suffers from lower statistical power and lesser ability to generalize causal estimates away from the treatment eligibility cutoff. This chapter seeks to mitigate these limitations by adding an untreated outcome comparison function that is measured along all or most of the assignment variable. When added to the usual treated and untreated outcomes observed in the basic RD, a comparative RD (CRD) design results. One version of CRD adds a pretest measure of the study outcome (CRD-Pre); another adds posttest outcomes from a nonequivalent comparison group (CRD-CG). We describe how these designs can be used to identify unbiased causal effects away from the cutoff under the assumption that a common, stable functional form describes how untreated outcomes vary with the assignment variable, both in the basic RD and in the added outcomes data (pretests or a comparison group's posttest). We then create the two CRD designs using data from the National Head Start Impact Study, a large-scale RCT. For both designs, we find that all untreated outcome functions are parallel, which lends support to CRD's identifying assumptions. Our results also indicate that CRD-Pre and CRD-CG both yield impact estimates at the cutoff that have a similarly small bias as, but are more precise than, the basic RD's impact estimates. In addition, both CRD designs produce estimates of impacts away from the cutoff that have relatively little bias compared to estimates of the same parameter from the RCT design. This common finding appears to be driven by two different mechanisms. In this instance of CRD-CG, potential untreated outcomes were likely independent of the assignment variable from the start. This was not the case with CRD-Pre. However, fitting a model using the observed pretests and untreated posttests to account for the initial dependence generated an accurate prediction of the missing counterfactual. The result was an unbiased causal estimate away from the cutoff, conditional on this successful prediction of the untreated outcomes of the treated.Publication Metadata only Efectos derrame en los mercados de valores del continente Americano(El Banco Publishers, 2009) Diebold, Francis X.; Department of Economics; Yılmaz, Kamil; Faculty Member; Department of Economics; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; 6111N/APublication Metadata only More on properness: the case of mean-variance preferences(Springer, 2002) N/A; Department of Economics; Lajeri-Chaherli, Fatma; Faculty Member; Department of Economics; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; N/AThis paper focuses on the situations where individuals with mean-variance preferences add independent risks to an already risky situation. Pratt and Zeckhauser (Econometrica, 55, 143-154, 1987) define a concept called proper risk aversion in the expected utility framework to describe the situation where an undesirable risk can never be made desirable by the presence of an independent undesirable risk. The assumption of mean-variance preferences allows us to study proper risk aversion in an intuitive manner. The paper presents an economic interpretation for the quasi-concavity of a utility function derived over mean and variance. The main result of the paper says that quasi-concavity plus decreasing risk aversion is equivalent to proper risk aversion.Publication Metadata only Equity market spillovers in the Americas(Banco Central Chile, 2009) Diebold, Francis X.; Department of Economics; Yılmaz, Kamil; Faculty Member; Department of Economics; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; 6111Using a recently-developed measure of financial market spillovers, we provide an empirical analysis of return and volatility spillovers among five equity markets in the Americas: Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Mexico and the U. S. The results indicate that both return and volatility spillovers vary widely. Return spillovers, however, tend to evolve gradually, whereas volatility spillovers display clear bursts that often correspond closely to economic events.Publication Metadata only Human capital and sorting models reconsidered(Bilgesel Yayincilik San and Tic Ltd, 2010) Department of Economics; Yüret, Tolga; Teaching Faculty; Department of Economics; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; N/ATurkey changed its compulsory attendance law in the 1997-1998 academic year the requirement increased from five to eight years of primary education. after the law change, there is an abrupt increase in the high school enrollment rate. This is despite the fact that the law does not cover high school education. By using the 2003 household budget survey and differences in differences methodology we find that a typical student is 3.2 percent more likely to have high school education if he is subject to the new law Moreover the largest increase in the likelihood of having high school education is attained by the students who have the weakest socioeconomic background. these findings are consistent with the standard sorting model but contrast the standard human capital model. / Türkiye 1997-1998 akademik yılında ilkokul/ilköğretime devam zorunluluğunu değiştirmiştir. Daha önce beş sene olan bu zorunluluk kanunla sekiz seneye çıkartılmıştır. Kanun değişikliğinden sonra liseye devam etme oranında da ciddi bir artış meydana gelmiştir. Kanun değişikliği lise eğitimini kapsamadığından bu değişim şaşırtıcıdır. Biz 2003 hanehalkı bütçe anketini ve değişim içinde değişimi bulan ekonometri yöntemini kullanarak bu artışın ne kadarının kanun yüzünden olduğunu bulmaya çalıştık. Bulgularımıza göre, yeni kanuna tabi olanların liseye gitme oranı eski kanuna tabi olanlardan yüzde 3,2 oranında fazladır. Ayrıca, liseye gitme oranını en fazla geliştirenlerin en zayıf sosyo-ekonomiye sahip anne-babaların çocukları olduğunu bulduk. Bu bulgularımız sıralama teorisine uymakla beraber standart beşeri kapital modeliyle bir tezat oluşturmaktadır.Publication Metadata only Parameter estimation in nonlinear AR-GARCH models(Cambridge Univ Press, 2011) Saikkonen, Pentti; Department of Economics; Meitz, Mika; Faculty Member; Department of Economics; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; N/AThis paper develops an asymptotic estimation theory for nonlinear autoregressive models with conditionally heteroskedastic errors. We consider a general nonlinear autoregression of order p (AR(p)) with the conditional variance specified as a general nonlinear first-order generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH(1,1)) model. We do not require the rescaled errors to be independent, but instead only to form a stationary and ergodic martingale difference sequence. Strong consistency and asymptotic normality of the global Gaussian quasi-maximum likelihood (QML) estimator are established under conditions comparable to those recently used in the corresponding linear case. To the best of our knowledge, this paper provides the first results on consistency and asymptotic normality of the QML estimator in nonlinear autoregressive models with GARCH errors.Publication Metadata only Stability of an allocation of objects(Springer, 2022) Yilmaz, Murat; Department of Economics; Yılmaz, Özgür; Faculty Member; Department of Economics; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; 108638A central stability notion for allocation problems when there are private endowments is core: no coalition should be able to block the allocation. But, for an exchange economy of discrete resources, core can be empty. An alternative stability axiom is the bargaining set a la Aumann and Maschler (Advances in game theory, Annals of mathematics studies, Princeton University Press, Princeton, pp 443-476, 1964): a blocking by a coalition is justified only if there is no counter-objection to it and an allocation is in the bargaining set if there does not exist a justified blocking. Allowing for weak preferences, we prove that any allocation obtained by the well-known Top Trading Cycles class is in the bargaining set, but not all allocations in the bargaining set can be obtained by this class.