Publications with Fulltext

Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14288/6

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Now showing 1 - 10 of 17
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    PublicationOpen Access
    Why some countries are immune from the resource curse: the role of economic norms
    (Taylor _ Francis, 2016) Mousseau, Michael; Department of International Relations; Aytaç, Selim Erdem; Örsün, Ömer Faruk; Faculty Member; Department of International Relations; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; 224278; N/A
    The political resource curse - the detrimental effect of natural resource dependence on democracy - is a well-established correlate of authoritarianism. A long-standing puzzle, however, is why some countries seem to be immune from it. We address this issue systematically by distinguishing two kinds of economies: contract-intensive, where individuals normally obtain their incomes in the marketplace; and clientelist, where individuals normally obtain their incomes in groups that compete over state rents. We theorize that the institutionalized patronage opportunities in clientelist economies are an important precondition for the resource curse, and that nations with contract-intensive economies are immune from it. Analysis of 150 countries from 1973 to 2000 yields robust support for this view. By introducing clientelist economy as a prerequisite for the resource curse, this study offers an important advance in understanding how nations democratize.
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    PublicationOpen Access
    Turkey and the Arab revolutions: boundaries of regional power influence in a turbulent Middle East
    (Taylor _ Francis, 2014) Department of International Relations; Öniş, Ziya; Faculty Member; Department of International Relations; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; 7715
    The recent Turkish involvement in the Middle East constitutes an important test case for establishing the boundaries of regional power influence in a changing global context. The AKP government in Turkey has become a major supporter of political change and democratization in the era of the Arab revolutions. Accumulating empirical evidence suggests, however, that the highly assertive and pro-active foreign policy of the AKP government in recent years has not been effective in terms of facilitating reform or regime change in Syria or helping to influence the direction of political change in Egypt towards a durable pluralistic order. Indeed, the policy might have been counter-productive in terms of undermining Turkey's image of a benign regional power, by drawing it to sectarian conflicts and over-engagement in the domestic politics of key Arab states. Turkey has the potential to play an important role model in the highly uncertain world of the Arab revolutions. Its ability to perform this role, however, requires an improvement in its own democratic credentials, rather than being excessively involved in the domestic politics of individual states.
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    PublicationOpen Access
    Turkey-US relations in an age of regional and global turmoil: challenges and prospects introduction
    (Routledge, 2013) Department of International Relations; Öniş, Ziya; Yılmaz, Şuhnaz Özbağcı; Faculty Member; Department of International Relations; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; 7715; 46805
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    PublicationOpen Access
    When and whom to join: the expansion of ongoing violent interstate conflicts
    (Cambridge University Press (CUP), 2014) Joyce, Kyle A.; Ghosn, Faten; Department of International Relations; Bayer, Reşat; Faculty Member; Department of International Relations; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; 51395
    The opportunity and willingness framework has received much attention in research on interstate conflict expansion. This framework is extended here by examining when and what side third parties join during ongoing conflicts. It is maintained that without examining both timing and side selection, understanding of conflict expansion is limited. The timing and side joined in interstate disputes between 1816 and 2001 are analysed using a competing risks duration model. The findings contribute novel insights into many key debates in conflict research such as balancing versus bandwagoning, as well as alliance reliability and the democratic peace. The results also indicate that relying on statistical models that do not distinguish between which side a third party can join may produce misleading results.
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    PublicationOpen Access
    Why do people join backlash protests? lessons from Turkey
    (Sage, 2018) Schiumerini, Luis; Stokes, Susan; Department of International Relations; Aytaç, Selim Erdem; Faculty Member; Department of International Relations; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; 224278
    When people learn that demonstrators are being subjected to harsh treatment by the police, sometimes their reaction is to join demonstrations. What explains the potentially mobilizing power of repression? Information-oriented theories posit that repression changes people's beliefs about the likely success of the protests or the type of the government, thus encouraging them to join. Social-psychological theories posit that repression provokes a moral and emotional reaction from bystanders, and these emotional reactions are mobilizing. Our research offers a rare opportunity to test these theories, empirically, against one another. We offer experimental evidence from Turkey after the 2013 Gezi uprising. In this setting, emotional reactions appear to be the link between repression and backlash mobilization. Information-oriented theories of backlash mobilization may be less germane in democracies, in which people already have access to information about their governments, and in highly polarized polities, in which few people's political affinities are up for grabs.
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    PublicationOpen Access
    Mapping civil society in the Middle East: the cases of Egypt, Lebanon and Turkey
    (Taylor _ Francis, 2012) Department of International Relations; Olcay, Özlem Altan; İçduygu, Ahmet; Faculty Member; Department of International Relations; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; N/A; 207882
    This article comparatively assesses the meaning of civil society in Egypt, Lebanon and Turkey, by utilising the results of a study conducted among civil society actors. In recent decades, civil society has become integral to discussions of political liberalisation. At the same time, there is a growing rift between international democracy promotion through investment in civil society and the more critical literature on the relationship between the two. This article makes three contributions to these debates by comparing the actual experiences of civil society actors. First, it argues that the boundaries between states and civil societies are indeterminate, making it problematic to expect civil society organisations alone to become catalysts for regime transformation. Second, it shows that expectations of monolithic generation of civic values through civil society organisations do not reflect the actual experience of actors in this realm. Finally, it argues for taking into consideration other sources of mobilisation as potential contributors to meaningful political and social transformation.
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    PublicationOpen Access
    Taking sides: determinants of support for a presidential system in Turkey
    (Routledge, 2017) Department of International Relations; Aytaç, Selim Erdem; Çarkoğlu, Ali; Yıldırım, Kerem; Faculty Member; Faculty Member; Department of International Relations; Graduate School of Social Sciences and Humanities; 224278; 125588; N/A
    A key issue on the Turkish political agenda concerns a transition to presidentialism, with a constitutional amendment proposal submitted in December 2016. While the positions of political elites are well known, we lack a detailed analysis of the electorate's views on such a transition. To fill this gap, we present cross-sectional and panel data collected over the period from spring 2015 to winter 2015-16. Partisanship emerges as the key factor shaping views on presidentialism, and reflections of the centre-periphery cleavage in Turkish politics are also visible. The shift of the Turkish nationalist constituency's views in favour of presidentialism has been a significant trend in the aftermath of the June 2015 general election.
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    PublicationOpen Access
    The triumph of conservative globalism: the political economy of the AKP era
    (Taylor _ Francis, 2012) Department of International Relations; Öniş, Ziya; Faculty Member; Department of International Relations; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; 7715
    The Adalet ve Kalkinma Partisi (AKP), following its third successive electoral victory appears to be far more entrenched than its earlier center-right counterparts in Turkish politics. This article highlights the key political economy fundamentals that have rendered the AKP experience unique within the Turkish context. Accordingly, strong economic performance in context of ""regulatory neo-liberalism"" helped by a favorable global liquidity environment in the early parts of the decade was a key contributor to the party's continued electoral success. The party also made effective use of a variety of formal and informal redistributive mechanisms, which is referred as ""controlled neo-populism"" in this article, to enlarge its electoral coalition. Furthermore, the fact that Turkey did not suffer a typical old-style economic crisis in the context of the global turmoil of 2008-2009 was important for the AKP's electoral fortunes. Concomitantly, the AKP government was quite effective in managing the global financial crisis politically and it took advantage of its assertive ""new"" foreign policy approach. Finally, this study argues that the AKP also benefited from the fragmented opposition.
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    PublicationOpen Access
    Wallets, ballots, or bullets: does wealth, democracy, or military capabilities determine war outcomes?
    (Wiley, 2013) Henderson, Errol A.; Department of International Relations; Bayer, Reşat; Faculty Member; Department of International Relations; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; 51395
    We examine the extent to which wealth, democracy, and/or relative military capabilities contribute to victory in interstate war. Examining contingency tables, we find that states with greater military capabilities are more likely to win their wars whether they are wealthier or democratic, and democratic states perform marginally better than wealthier states in war. Probit analyses indicate that although each of the variables has a robust and positive impact on war victory, relative capabilities has the strongest substantive impact, followed by wealth, then democracy. Hazard analyses reveal that states with greater military capabilities fight shorter wars than either democracies or wealthier states, and controlling for capabilities and wealth, the relationship between democracy and war duration is not significant, which challenges the view that democracies have a unique propensity to fight shorter wars. We also find that the democratic victory phenomenon is not universal, but is contingent on the placement of a single country, Israel, in the Western or non-Western democracy category. In sum, our analyses indicate that although each of the three factors contributes to war victory, relative military capability is the most powerful, consistent, and robust predictor to victory in interstate war.
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    PublicationOpen Access
    Rising powers in a changing global order: the political economy of Turkey in the age of BRICs
    (Taylor _ Francis, 2013) Kutlay, Mustafa; Department of International Relations; Öniş, Ziya; Faculty Member; Department of International Relations; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; 7715
    The rise of BRICs presents a major challenge to the existing global order. A second category of emerging powers, which may be labelled near- bric s, have also displayed increasing pro-activism in recent years in terms of influencing the regional balance of power politics, in addition to their growing presence in international organisations and global affairs. It is in this context that we aim to examine Turkey as a striking example of a ‘near- bric ’ power, a country that has adopted an increasingly assertive and independent style of foreign policy with aspirations to establish itself as a major regional actor. Using the Turkish experience as a reference point, this paper aims to understand the extent to which near- bric countries possess the economic capacity, sustainable growth performance and soft-power capabilities needed to establish themselves as significant regional and global actors. The recent Turkish experience clearly highlights both the potential and the limits of regional power activism on the part of emerging powers from the ‘global South’.