Publications with Fulltext
Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14288/6
Browse
17 results
Search Results
Publication Open Access Female labor force participation in Turkey: a synthetic cohort analysis, 1988-2013(2017) Kırdar, Murat Güray; Dayıoğlu, Meltem; Department of Economics; Tunalı, Fehmi İnsan; Faculty Member; Department of Economics; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; 105635We study the aggregate labor force participation behavior of women over a 25-year period in Turkey using a synthetic panel analysis. In our decomposition of age, year, and cohort effects, we use three APC models that have survived the scrutiny of the demography community. We rely on predictions from just-identified models that render different methods comparable. The exercise is carried out by rural/urban status and by education to tease out some key differences in behavior. Our comparative methodology yields remarkably robust age-profiles that represent the behavior of a typical woman over her life-cycle. Notably an M-shape attributable to child-bearing related concerns is detected in rural areas and for low-educated women in urban areas. We also find that later birth-cohorts among the less-educated women—which constitutes the majority of the female workforce—are significantly more likely to participate, which implies that the recent rise in the aggregate participation rates is not only due to rising education levels and that the current substantial gap in participation by education will decrease.Publication Open Access Egypt’s manufacturing sector: seizing on an advantageous product space position(The Lebanese Center for Policy Studies, 2017) Bustos, Sebastian; Department of Economics; Yıldırım, Muhammed Ali; Faculty Member; Department of Economics; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; 219280This policy report on Egypt’s industrial sector is the third in a series of reports aimed at identifying strategic options Arab countries have in undertaking structural transformation. Using the product space methodology, this report analyzes existing capabilities of selected economies by identifying products they currently export and determining which path they should follow to produce more sophisticated and strategic products. A study of Egypt’s product space reveals the country should develop the machinery and chemicals & allied industry since they would increase the country’s product complexity index. To meet this specific goal and to enhance production in other sectors, Egypt should focus on providing support and public inputs—such as infrastructure and regulation—to existing industries with the aim of improving their productivity and ability to jump to nearby opportunities.Publication Open Access Bank volatility connectedness in South East Asia(2018) Department of Economics; Yılmaz, Kamil; Faculty Member; Department of Economics; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; 6111This paper presents an analysis of the volatility connectedness of major bank stocks in the South East Asia (SEACEN) region between 2004 and 2016. Applying the Diebold-Yilmaz Connectedness Index (DYCI) framework to daily stock return volatilities of major banks in the region, we obtain results that help us uncover valuable information on the region's static and dynamic bank volatility network. The volatility connectedness increased substantially during the US financial crisis (from 2007 to 2009) and during the European sovereign debt and banking crisis in 2011. The recent increase in the total connectedness has resulted from temporary financial shocks on a global scale. Once included in the analysis, the global systemically important banks (GSIBs) from the U.S. and Europe generate substantial volatility connectedness to SEACEN banks. We also identify country clusters in the banking volatility network. Major Indian, Taiwanese and Chinese banks generate volatility connectedness to their counterparts in other countries of the region. Finally, we show that the region's bank volatility network becomes tighter during systemic events; banks from different countries in the region generate volatility connectedness to the others.Publication Open Access Tunisia’s manufacturing sector: machinery, electronics, and chemical sector potential(2017) Bustos, Sebastian; Department of Economics; Yıldırım, Muhammed Ali; Faculty Member; Department of Economics; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; 219280This policy report on Tunisia’s industrial sector is the tenth in a series of reports aimed at identifying strategic options Arab countries have in undertaking structural transformation. Using the product space methodology, this report analyzes existing capabilities of selected economies by identifying products they currently export and determining which path they should follow to produce more sophisticated and strategic products. A study of Tunisia’s product space reveals that the country should focus on facilitating the development of new complex products, particularly in the machinery/electrical clusters and a few products in the chemical and plastic rubber communities that are most attractive in terms of the tradeoff between distance and complexity. These findings call for what is termed parsimonious industrial policy or industrial policy ‘in the small’, entailing providing support and public inputs (such as infrastructure, regulation, etc.) to existing industries with the aim of improving their productivity and ability to jump to the nearby opportunities.Publication Open Access UAE’s manufacturing sector: small industry, significant potential(The Lebanese Center for Policy Studies, 2017) Bustos, Sebastian; Department of Economics; Yıldırım, Muhammed Ali; Faculty Member; Department of Economics; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; 219280This policy report on the United Arab Emirates’ (UAE) industrial sector is the sixth in a series of reports aimed at identifying strategic options Arab countries have in undertaking structural transformation. Using the product space methodology, this report analyzes existing capabilities of selected economies by identifying products they currently export and determining which path they should follow to produce more sophisticated and strategic products. A study of the UAE’s product space reveals the country’s future path for development should focus on new opportunities in the chemical and foodstuff clusters. This reports calls for what is termed parsimonious industrial policy or industrial policy ‘in the small’, entailing a focus on providing support and public inputs (such as infrastructure, regulation, etc.) to existing industries with the aim of improving their productivity and ability to jump to nearby opportunities.Publication Open Access Arab country product space report introduction and methodology(The Lebanese Center for Policy Studies, 2017) Bustos, Sebastian; Department of Economics; Yıldırım, Muhammed Ali; Faculty Member; Department of Economics; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; 219280During the decades prior to the Arab spring, Arab countries on average had one of the lowest per capita growth rates compared to other parts of the world. Although countries in the region registered higher growth rates at the beginning of the century, this economic growth did not bring about a structural transformation required to diversify Arab economies. The challenge remains not only in how to ensure these economies grow but also to ensure that growth is inclusive and sustainable. The general objective of the report is to lay out the strategic options Arab countries have in undertaking structural transformation. Using the product space methodology, the existing capabilities of selected economies are analyzed by locating products they currently export, which assists in determining which path they should follow to produce more sophisticated and strategic products.Publication Open Access Labor market implications of the demographic window of opportunity(1996) Pritchett, Jonathan B.; Department of Economics; Tunalı, Fehmi İnsan; Faculty Member; Department of Economics; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; 105635Publication Open Access Saudi Arabia’s manufacturing sector: looking beyond petroleum(The Lebanese Center for Policy Studies, 2017) Bustos, Sebastian; Department of Economics; Yıldırım, Muhammed Ali; Faculty Member; Department of Economics; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; 219280This policy report on Saudi Arabia’s industrial sector is the fourth in a series of reports aimed at identifying strategic options Arab countries have in undertaking structural transformation. Using the product space methodology, this report analyzes existing capabilities of selected economies by identifying products they currently export and determining which path they should follow to produce more sophisticated and strategic products. A study of Saudi Arabia’s product space reveals that the kingdom’s development path should focus on new complex products in the machinery/electrical clusters and a few products in the chemical community. In Saudi Arabia, enhancing production possibilities around existing industries will likely not produce leaps that are desired, meaning it will likely be necessary to place strategic bets or adopt industrial policy ‘in the large’ to ease the transition into new and more complex industries.Publication Open Access Measuring dynamic connectedness with large Bayesian VAR models(2018) Korobilis, Dimitris; Department of Economics; Yılmaz, Kamil; Faculty Member; Department of Economics; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; 6111We estimate a large Bayesian time-varying parameter vector autoregressive (TVP-VAR) model of daily stock return volatilities for 35 U.S. and European financial institutions. Based on that model we extract a connectedness index in the spirit of Diebold and Yilmaz (2014) (DYCI). We show that the connectedness index from the TVP-VAR model captures abrupt turning points better than the one obtained from rolling-windows VAR estimates. As the TVP-VAR based DYCI shows more pronounced jumps during important crisis moments, it captures the intensification of tensions in financial markets more accurately and timely than the rolling-windows based DYCI. Finally, we show that the TVP- VAR-based index performs better in forecasting systemic events in the American and European financial sectors as well.Publication Open Access Mixed-frequency macro-financial spillovers(2017) Cotter, John; Hallam, Mark; Department of Economics; Yılmaz, Kamil; Faculty Member; Department of Economics; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; 6111We develop a new methodology to analyse spillovers between the real and financial sides of the economy that employs a mixed-frequency modelling approach. This enables high-frequency financial and low-frequency macroeconomic data series to be employed directly, avoiding the data aggregation and information loss incurred when using common-frequency methods. In a detailed analysis of macro- financial spillovers for the US economy, we find that the additional high-frequency information preserved by our mixed-frequency approach results in estimated spillovers that are typically substantially higher than those from an analogous common-frequency approach and are more consistent with known in-sample events. We also show that financial markets are typically net transmitters of shocks to the real side of the economy, particularly during turbulent market conditions, but that the bond and equity markets act heterogeneously in both transmitting and receiving shocks to the non- financial sector. We observe substantial short and medium-run variation in macro- financial spillovers that is statistically associated with key variables related to financial and macroeconomic fundamentals; the values of the term spread, VIX and unemployment rate in particular appear to be important determinants of macro-financial spillovers.