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Publication Metadata only A test for reverse causality in the democratic peace relationship(Sage, 1999) Shi, Yuhang; Department of International Relations; Mousseau, Michael; Faculty Member; Department of International Relations; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; N/ASeveral studies have suggested the possibility of reverse causation in the 'democratic peace' relationship: that the well-known extreme rarity of wars between democratic nations may be partially or wholly explained by a negative impact of war on democracy. Three kinds of war-on-regime effects are discussed. Anterior effects are regime changes that occur in preparation for wars; concurrent effects are those that occur during the course of a war; and posterior effects are regime changes that occur after a war concludes. Because studies have shown that democratic nations are rarely, if ever, on opposite sides in wars at their start, it is argued that reversed causation may affect the presence of causation from democracy to peace only if nations tend to become more autocratic as they prepare for impending wars. This proposition is examined with the observation of war events involving geographic neighbors or major powers, worldwide, from 1816 to 1992. With interrupted time-series analysis, it is found that nations are about as likely to become more institutionally autocratic as they are to become more democratic in the periods before the onset of wars. Moreover, this pattern holds even for the smaller subset of nations estimated to be democratic in the periods before major wars. These results indicate that studies of regime type and war participation have not been underspecified due to possible reverse causation before the onset of wars, and thus support the notion that the direction of causation in the democracy and war relationship is unidirectional from democracy to peace.Publication Metadata only Authoritarianism in central Asia: curse or cure?(Carfax Publ Co, 1998) N/A; Department of International Relations; Kubicek, Paul J.; Faculty Member; Department of International Relations; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; N/AThe former Soviet republics of Central Asia-Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and Tajikistan-have largely resisted the movement toward democracy that has swept over other former communist states. Many factors can account for this: low levels of economic development, traditional culture, weak civil societies, the leading-role of the old nomenklatura in these new states, and ethnic cleavages. The larger question is what effect continued authoritarianism will have in these states. Should such governments be condemned as 'backwards' or do they serve a function, such as state-building, maintenance of inter-ethnic peace, or facilitators of economic growth? This article argues that the regimes of Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan, on balance, do serve a positive purpose, preserving order and discouraging expression of radical nationalism. On the other hand, success for democracy in these countries is far from likely, and limited democratic experience in Kyrgyzstan shows that it carl exacerbate ethnic tensions and threaten economic reform. There are, of course, risks and problems associated with even the most benign forms of authoritarianism, but thus far many of these pitfalls have been avoided.Publication Metadata only Central Asia in transition: dilemmas of political and economic development - rumer,b(Routledge Journals, Taylor and Francis Ltd, 1997) N/A; Department of International Relations; Kubicek, Paul J.; Faculty Member; Department of International Relations; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; N/AN/APublication Metadata only Double-faced state: political patronage and the consolidation of democracy in Turkey(Frank Cass Co Ltd, 1998) Heper, Metin; Department of International Relations; Keyman, Emin Fuat; Faculty Member; Department of International Relations; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; 45389Publication Metadata only New states, new politics: building the post-soviet nations(Cambridge University Press (CUP), 1998) Department of International Relations; Kubicek, Paul J.; Faculty Member; Department of International Relations; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; N/APublication Metadata only Organized labor in postcommunist states - will the western sun set on it, too?(Sheridan Press, 1999) Department of International Relations; Kubicek, Paul J.; Faculty Member; Department of International Relations; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; N/AOrganized labor in postcommunist states is politically weak, marginalized by governments, and unable to mobilize its own members. Although some studies have assumed that with economic restructuring and recovery labor will again find a prominent role, marketization and globalization will undermie labor's position further. The same processes that undermined labor in western states are becoming manifest in postcommunist countries, and it is very doubtful if postcommunist organized labor will be able to survive as a movement.Publication Metadata only Post-Soviet Ukraine: in search of a constituency for reform(Taylor and Francis, 1997) N/A; Department of International Relations; Kubicek, Paul J.; Faculty Member; Department of International Relations; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; N/ADuring its first years of independence, Ukraine suffered economic and political stagnation and stubbornly avoided serious reform. As president since July 1994 Leonid Kuchma has pushed through some significant reforms, but the social support for such reforms remains uncertain. Opinion polls suggest that the public has mixed views on the matter, and key sectors, including labour unions, heads of state industries and agricultural organizations, still rely heavily on assumptions of the state-planning era, and exploit their links with the state apparatus to preserve elements of the old system. New organizations struggle, for various reasons, to make their voice heard. Creating a solid body of support for reform is thus proving difficult, and perhaps the political 'bargain' between Kuchma and industrialists' groups offers greater hope than the application of economic theory.Publication Metadata only Ranking the presses: political scientists' evaluations of publisher quality(Cambridge Univ Press, 1999) Goodson, LP; Hira, A; Department of International Relations; Dillman, Bradford L.; Faculty Member; Department of International Relations; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; N/AN/APublication Metadata only Regionalism, nationalism and realpolitik in Central Asia(Carfax Publ Co, 1997) N/A; Department of International Relations; Kubicek, Paul J.; Faculty Member; Department of International Relations; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; N/AN/APublication Metadata only Response to critics of "ranking the presses"(Amer Political Science Assoc, 1999) Goodson, Larry P.; Hira, Anil; Department of International Relations; Dillman, Bradford L.; Faculty Member; Department of International Relations; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; N/AN/A