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Publication Metadata only Business cycles in developed and emerging economies: evidence from a univariate markov switching approach(Routledge Journals, Taylor & Francis Ltd, 2012) Bildirici, Melike; Department of Economics; Altuğ, Sumru; Faculty Member; Department of Economics; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; N/AThis paper characterizes business cycle phenomena in a sample of twenty-seven developed and emerging economies using a univariate Markov regime-switching approach. It examines the efficacy of this approach for detecting business cycle turning points and for identifying distinct economic regimes for each country in question. The paper also presents results on business cycle synchronization for the sample of countries under consideration. The findings of the paper have implications for understanding the commonalities and differences in cyclical phenomena for a diverse set of developed and emerging economies.Publication Metadata only Capital flows and spillovers(MCGILL-QUEENS UNIV PR, 2016) N/A; Department of Economics; Kalemli Özcan, Şebnem; Other; Department of Economics; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; N/AThis paper shows that debt flows have contractionary effects while equity flows have expansion- ary effects on emerging markets output. Such correlations can be driven by countercyclical debt flows and procyclical equity flows or debt flows leading to an appreciation and hurting exports and equity flows improving productivity of real economy broadly defined. To separate out the stories, we focus on business cycle frequencies and the effect of global risk appetite (VIX) in driving capital flows into emerging markets. A positive initial impact of debt flows on output is followed by a negative impact afterwards. Equity flows has a positive impact on output initially and thereafter. FDI inflows have a positive affect on output only with a two year lag and if this period coincides with increased global uncertainty, the effect on output reverses but total effect stays positive. This result holds also for equity flows, suggesting that during increased periods of uncertainty private investors leave emerging markets. Quantitative impacts are not big except the case of FDI flows.Publication Metadata only Economic costs of friendshoring(Wiley, 2024) Javorcik, Beata; Kitzmueller, Lucas; Schweiger, Helena; Department of Economics; Yıldırım, Muhammed Ali; Department of Economics; College of Administrative Sciences and EconomicsGeo-political tensions and disruptions to global value chains have led policymakers to re-evaluate their approach to globalisation. Many countries are considering friendshoring - trading primarily with countries sharing similar values - as a way of minimising exposure to weaponisation of trade and securing access to critical inputs. If followed through, this process has the potential to reverse global economic integration of recent decades. This article estimates the economic costs of friendshoring using a quantitative model incorporating inter-country inter-industry linkages. The results suggest that friendshoring may lead to real GDP losses of up to 4.7% of GDP in some economies. Thus, although friendshoring may provide insurance against extreme disruptions and increase the security of supply of vital inputs, it would come at a substantial cost.Publication Metadata only Guest Editor's introduction(Taylor & Francis, 2014) Department of Economics; Altuğ, Sumru; Faculty Member; Department of Economics; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; N/APublication Metadata only Productivity response to reduction in trade barriers: evidence from Turkish manufacturing plants(Springer, 2009) Özler, Şule; Department of Economics; Yılmaz, Kamil; Faculty Member; Department of Economics; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; 6111We examine the effects of trade policy changes on the evolution of productivity in the Turkish manufacturing industry. Plant level productivities are estimated for the 1983-1996 period following the procedure of Olley and Pakes. Industry averages indicate that productivity gains are largest in import-competing industries with highest gains reaching 8% per year during periods of rapid decline in protection rates. We find that productivity improvements resulting from declining protection rates are statistically significant and economically important, especially in import-competing sectors. More importantly, productivity improvements due to declining protection rates increase with the plant size.Publication Metadata only Search frictions, financial frictions, and labor market fluctuations in emerging markets(Routledge Journals, Taylor & Francis Ltd, 2017) Kabaca, Serdar; Department of Economics; Altuğ, Sumru; Faculty Member; Department of Economics; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; N/AThis article examines the role of the extensive and intensive margins of labor input in the context of a business cycle model with a financial friction. We document significant variation in the hours worked per worker for many emerging-market economies using manufacturing data. Both employment and hours worked per worker are positively correlated with each other and with output. We show that a search-theoretic context in a small open-economy model requires a small wealth effect to explain these regularities at the expense of a smaller wage response. On the other hand, introducing a financial friction in the form of a working capital requirement can explain the observed movements of labor market variables such as employment and hours worked per worker, as well as other distinguishable business cycle characteristics of emerging economies. These include highly volatile and cyclical real wages, labor share, and consumption.