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Department: search.filters.department.Department of EconomicsSubject: search.filters.subject.Political science

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Now showing 1 - 5 of 5
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    Crises and regional governance attempts: the curious case of Turkey in critical perspective
    (Palgrave, 2014) Department of Economics; Dönmez, Pınar E.; Undergraduate Student; Department of Economics; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics
    N/A
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    Monetary policy communication in Turkey
    (Elsevier Science Inc, 2012) Kara, Hakan; Özlü, Pınar; Department of Economics; Demiralp, Selva; Faculty Member; Department of Economics; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; 42533
    This paper assesses the effectiveness of monetary policy communication of the Central Bank of Turkey (CBT) by quantifying the information content of its policy statements released right after the monthly Monetary Policy Committee meetings. First, we quantify the signal regarding the next interest rate decision and ask whether communication improves predictability. Our findings suggest that the role of statements in predicting the next policy move has strengthened following the adoption of a full-fledged inflation targeting (IT) regime. Second, we identify the surprise component of policy communication directly from market commentaries and assess its impact on the term structure of interest rates. We find that the response of the yield curve to policy statements has become highly significant for the unanticipated changes in the monetary policy communication, especially after the implementation of the IT. We also compare the yield curve impact of the surprise component of policy decisions (actions) with the surprises in policy communication (words). Our results suggest that the relative importance of communication in driving market yields has increased through time. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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    Privatisation and stock market efficiency: the British experience
    (Wiley, 1997) Hayri, A; Department of Economics; Yılmaz, Kamil; Faculty Member; Department of Economics; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; 6111
    We present evidence that with its emphasis on wide-share-ownership the British privatisation program created heavy involvement of small investors in privatised stocks. Using standard market efficiency tests and maximum likelihood estimates of stationary fractional ARIMA models, we show that the pricing of privatised stocks in the London Stock Exchange was indeed inefficient, unlike the rest of the market. Together, these two pieces of evidence suggest that small investors, behaving like noise-traders, may be generating this inefficiency. Yet, we cannot rule out alternative explanations.
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    Strategic misspecification in regression models
    (Blackwell Publishing, 2003) Signorino, Curtis S.; Department of Economics; Yılmaz, Kuzey; Faculty Member; Department of Economics; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; N/A
    Common regression models are often structurally inconsistent with strategic interaction. We demonstrate that this "strategic misspecification" is really an issue of structural (or functional form) misspecification. The misspecification can be equivalently written as a form of omitted variable bias, where the omitted variables are nonlinear terms arising from the players' expected utility calculations and often from data aggregation. We characterize the extent of the specification error in terms of model parameters and the data and show that typical regressions models can at times give exactly the opposite inferences versus the true strategic data-generating process. Researchers are recommended to pay closer attention to their theoretical models, the implications of those models concerning their statistical models, and vice versa.
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    The EU-Turkey customs union fifteen years later: better, yet not the best alternative
    (Routledge Journals, Taylor & Francis Ltd, 2011) Department of Economics; Yılmaz, Kamil; Faculty Member; Department of Economics; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; 6111
    Overall, the Customs Union (CU) has had a positive impact on Turkish economy. Through an increase in import penetration, the CU increased the competitive pressure on Turkish manufacturing industry, forcing it to improve productivity in the long-run. It also contributed to the transformation of the Turkish economy through the implementation of a competition policy. With increased productivity and competitiveness, the manufacturing industry was able to weather the storm during the 2001 economic crisis and in the wake of China's entry into world export markets. However, following the successful initial adaptation phase and the significant changes in the European Union's trade policy framework towards preferential trade agreements, the CU has recently started to generate some strains on Turkish trade.