Research Outputs

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Department: search.filters.department.Department of EconomicsSubject: search.filters.subject.Social sciences

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Now showing 1 - 10 of 21
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    A comparative study of returns to education of urban men in Egypt, Iran, and Turkey
    (Routledge Journals, Taylor & Francis Ltd, 2009) Salehi-Isfahani, Djavad; Assaad, Ragui; Department of Economics; Tunalı, Fehmi İnsan; Faculty Member; Department of Economics; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; 105635
    This paper presents a comparative study of private returns to schooling of urban men in Egypt, Iran, and Turkey using similar survey data and a uniform methodology. We employ three surveys for each country that span nearly two decades, from the 1980s to 2006, and, to increase the comparability of the estimates across surveys, we focus on urban men 20-54 years old and in full time wage and salary employment. Our aim is to learn how the monetary signals of rewards that guide individual decisions to invest in education are shaped by the institutions of education and labor markets in these countries. Our estimates generally support the stylized facts of the institutions of education and labor markets in Middle Eastern countries. Their labor markets have been described as dominated by the public sector and therefore relatively inflexible, and their education systems as more focused on secondary and tertiary degrees than teaching practical and productive skills. Returns in all countries are increasing in years of schooling, which is contrary to the Mincer assumption of linear returns but consistent with overemphasis on secondary and tertiary degrees. Low returns to vocational training relative to general upper secondary, which have been observed in many developing countries, are observed in Egypt and Iran, but not Turkey. This pattern of returns across countries seems to correspond to how students are selected into vocational and general upper secondary tracks, which is an important part of the education institutions of these countries, and the fact that Turkey's economy is more open than the other two. Greater competitiveness in all three countries over time seems to have increased returns to university education and in few cases to vocational education, but not to general high school.
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    Bargaining over a finite set of alternatives
    (Springer, 2007) Kıbrıs, Özgür; Department of Economics; Sertel, Murat Rauf; Other; Department of Economics; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; N/A
    We analyze bilateral bargaining over a finite set of alternatives. We look for "good" ordinal solutions to such problems and show that Unanimity Compromise and Rational Compromise are the only bargaining rules that satisfy a basic set of properties. We then extend our analysis to admit problems with countably infinite alternatives. We show that, on this class, no bargaining rule choosing finite subsets of alternatives can be neutral. When rephrased in the utility framework of Nash (1950), this implies that there is no ordinal bargaining rule that is finite-valued.
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    Bridging the Covid-19 data and the epidemiological model using the time-varying parameter SIRD model
    (Elsevier Sci Ltd, 2024) Şimşek, Yasin; Department of Economics; Çakmaklı, Cem; Department of Economics; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics
    This paper extends the canonical model of epidemiology, the SIRD model, to allow for timevarying parameters for real-time measurement and prediction of the trajectory of the Covid-19 pandemic. Time variation in model parameters is captured using the score -driven modeling structure designed for the typical daily count data related to the pandemic. The resulting specification permits a flexible yet parsimonious model with a low computational cost. The model is extended to allow for unreported cases using a mixed -frequency setting. Results suggest that these cases' effects on the parameter estimates might be sizeable. Full sample results show that the flexible framework accurately captures the successive waves of the pandemic. A realtime exercise indicates that the proposed structure delivers timely and precise information on the pandemic's current stance. This superior performance, in turn, transforms into accurate predictions of the death cases and cases treated in Intensive Care Units (ICUs).
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    Core in a simple coalition formation game
    (Springer, 2001) Banerjee, Suryapratim; Konishi, Hideo; Department of Economics; Sönmez, Tayfun; Faculty Member; Department of Economics; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; N/A
    We analyze the core of a class of coalition formation game in which every player's payoff depends only on the members of her coalition. We first consider anonymous games and additively separable games. Neither of these strong properties guarantee the existence of a core allocation, even if additional strong properties are imposed. We then introduce two top-coalition properties each of which guarantee the existence. We show that these properties are independent of the Scarf-balancedness condition. Finally we give several economic applications.
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    Cox regression with alternative concepts of waiting time: the new orleans yellow fever epidemic of 1853
    (John Wiley & Sons Ltd, 1997) Pritchett, JB; Department of Economics; Tunalı, Fehmi İnsan; Faculty Member; Department of Economics; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; 105635
    Event data can often be analysed using different concepts of waiting time. Our application offers three choices: calendar-time, age, and duration of residence in New Orleans. We exploit the semi-parametric features of Cox regression and estimate parallel specifications in which mortality risk is treated as an arbitrary function of one of the three alternative time measures, while the remaining two enter the hazard parametrically. Comparisons of the parameter estimates with the corresponding estimates of the baseline hazards form the crux of a simple specification checking procedure. In our formal treatment we rely on Aalen's Multiplicative Intensity formulation and tackle complications such as left-truncation, functional form specification, and choice-based sampling.
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    Estimating global bank network connectedness
    (Wiley, 2018) Demirer, Mert; Diebold, Francis X.; Liu, Laura; Department of Economics; Yılmaz, Kamil; Faculty Member; Department of Economics; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; 6111
    We use LASSO methods to shrink, select, and estimate the high-dimensional network linking the publicly traded subset of the world's top 150 banks, 2003-2014. We characterize static network connectedness using full-sample estimation and dynamic network connectedness using rolling-window estimation. Statically, we find that global bank equity connectedness has a strong geographic component, whereas country sovereign bond connectedness does not. Dynamically, we find that equity connectedness increases during crises, with clear peaks during the Great Financial Crisis and each wave of the subsequent European Debt Crisis, and with movements coming mostly from changes in cross-country as opposed to within-country bank linkages.
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    PublicationOpen Access
    Gender stereotypes in the classroom and effects on achievement
    (Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Press, 2018) Alan, Şule; Mumcu, İpek; Department of Economics; Ertaç, Seda; Faculty Member; Department of Economics; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; 107102
    We study the effect of elementary school teachers' beliefs about gender roles on student achievement. We exploit a natural experiment where teachers are prevented from self-selecting into schools, and, conditional on school, students are allocated to teachers randomly. We show that girls who are taught for longer than a year by teachers with traditional gender views have lower performance in objective math and verbal tests, and this effect is amplified with longer exposure to the same teacher. We find no effect on boys. We show that the effect is partly mediated by teachers' transmitting traditional beliefs to girls.
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    Is there a 'heat-or-eat' trade-off in the Uk?
    (Wiley, 2014) Beatty, Timothy K. M.; Blow, Laura; Crossley, Thomas F.; Department of Economics; Crossley, Thomas Fraser; Faculty Member; Department of Economics; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; N/A
    Do households cut back on food spending to finance the additional cost of keeping warm during spells of unseasonably cold weather? For households which cannot smooth consumption over time, we describe how cold weather shocks are equivalent to income shocks. We merge detailed household level expenditure data from older households with historical regional weather information. We find evidence that the poorest of older households cannot smooth fuel spending over the worst temperature shocks. Statistically significant reductions in food spending occur in response to winter temperatures 2 or more standard deviations colder than expected, which occur about 1 winter month in 40; reductions in food expenditure are considerably larger in poorer households.
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    PublicationOpen Access
    Market selection and the information content of prices
    (Wiley, 2021) Ekmekçi, Mehmet; Department of Economics; Atakan, Alp Enver; Faculty Member; Department of Economics; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; 39383
    We study information aggregation when n bidders choose, based on their private information, between two concurrent common-value auctions. There are k(s) identical objects on sale through a uniform-price auction in market s and there are an additional k(r) objects on auction in market r, which is identical to market s except for a positive reserve price. The reserve price in market r implies that information is not aggregated in this market. Moreover, if the object-to-bidder ratio in market s exceeds a certain cutoff, then information is not aggregated in market s either. Conversely, if the object-to-bidder ratio is less than this cutoff, then information is aggregated in market s as the market grows arbitrarily large. Our results demonstrate how frictions in one market can disrupt information aggregation in a linked, frictionless market because of the pattern of market selection by imperfectly informed bidders.
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    Martingale property of exchange rates and central bank interventionssd
    (Taylor & Francis Inc, 2003) Department of Economics; Yılmaz, Kamil; Faculty Member; Department of Economics; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; 6111
    This article uses the variance ratio-based multiple comparison test and the Richardson-Smith Wald test procedures to test for the martingale property of daily exchange rates of seven major currencies vis-A-vis the U.S. dollar. To allow for the possibility that exchange rates are not governed by a single process throughout the float, the test statistics are calculated and plotted for fixed-length moving subsample windows rather than being applied to the full Sample. The results show that exchange rates do not always follow the martingale process. During the times of coordinated central bank interventions, exchange rates deviate from the martingale property.