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Publication Open Access A new path emerges(Johns Hopkins University (JHU) Press, 2003) Department of International Relations; Öniş, Ziya; Keyman, Emin Fuat; Faculty Member; Department of International Relations; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; 7715; 45389
Publication Metadata only A test for reverse causality in the democratic peace relationship(Sage, 1999) Shi, Yuhang; Department of International Relations; Mousseau, Michael; Faculty Member; Department of International Relations; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; N/ASeveral studies have suggested the possibility of reverse causation in the 'democratic peace' relationship: that the well-known extreme rarity of wars between democratic nations may be partially or wholly explained by a negative impact of war on democracy. Three kinds of war-on-regime effects are discussed. Anterior effects are regime changes that occur in preparation for wars; concurrent effects are those that occur during the course of a war; and posterior effects are regime changes that occur after a war concludes. Because studies have shown that democratic nations are rarely, if ever, on opposite sides in wars at their start, it is argued that reversed causation may affect the presence of causation from democracy to peace only if nations tend to become more autocratic as they prepare for impending wars. This proposition is examined with the observation of war events involving geographic neighbors or major powers, worldwide, from 1816 to 1992. With interrupted time-series analysis, it is found that nations are about as likely to become more institutionally autocratic as they are to become more democratic in the periods before the onset of wars. Moreover, this pattern holds even for the smaller subset of nations estimated to be democratic in the periods before major wars. These results indicate that studies of regime type and war participation have not been underspecified due to possible reverse causation before the onset of wars, and thus support the notion that the direction of causation in the democracy and war relationship is unidirectional from democracy to peace.Publication Metadata only An inquiry into the linkage among nationalizing policies, democratization, and ethno-nationalist conflict: the Kurdish case in Turkey(Routledge Journals, Taylor & Francis Ltd, 2012) N/A; Department of International Relations; Mousseau, Demet Yalçın; Faculty Member; Department of International Relations; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; N/AThis article analyzes the effects of nationalizing policies of the state, processes of democratization, and uneven socio-economic development on the rise of Kurdish ethno-mobilization led by the PKK terrorist organization since the 1980s in Turkey. Three features of the Turkish modernization context are identified as conducive for the rise and continuation of Kurdish ethno-mobilization: a) a nation-building autocratic state that resisted granting cultural rights and recognition for the Kurds; b) democratization with the exclusion of ethnic politics and rights; c) economic regional inequality that coincided with the regional distribution of the Kurdish population. It is argued that autocratic policies of the state during nation-building accompanied the development of an illiberal democracy and intolerance for cultural pluralism. These aspects of Turkish democracy seem to be incompatible with both the liberal and consociational models of democracy that accommodate ethnicity within multiculturalism.Publication Metadata only Aspirations among young refugees in Turkey: social class, integration and onward migration in forced migration contexts(Taylor & Francis, 2022) Elci, Ezgi; Department of International Relations; Faculty Member; Department of International Relations; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; 238439The prevailing sentiment is that refugees desire to go to developed countries rather than stay in their first host country. Based on a critical reading of the literature on onward migration, this article analyzes the formation of aspirations for (im)mobility among young Syrian refugees in Turkey, considering their initial access to resources and integration. Our quantitative analysis suggests that obtaining legal status, satisfaction with life, perceived cultural similarities between the Turkish and Syrian communities, and hence perceived inclusion are the foremost drivers of aspirations to stay in Turkey. The analysis also shows that rather than migrants' social class, migration-specific capital, such as a passport and networks abroad, drives onward migration aspirations. The qualitative analysis further unpacks the relationship between economic, cultural, and social capital as well as the subjective experience of integration and aspirations to move on or stay. Analyzing different trajectories, we highlight the importance of 'start-up capital' at the onset of displacement in shaping opportunities for settlement and future aspirations. Our discussion underscores that resources and opportunities explain onward mobility aspirations in protracted displacement contexts in relation to daily experiences of inclusion and to considerations regarding social class and social mobility in the future.Publication Metadata only Avoiding fallout from terrorist attacks: the role of local politics and governments(SAGE Publications Ltd, 2024) Kemahlıoğlu, Özge; Kural, Ece; Department of International Relations; Bayer, Reşat; Erol, Emine Arı; Department of International Relations; College of Administrative Sciences and EconomicsEven though violent attacks resulting in civilian fatalities can be seen as constituting failure on the part of the incumbent party to provide security to citizens, governments are not always punished electorally. Rather, at times, they appear to gain votes following terrorist attacks. Here we argue that political parties that can take advantage of their local presence to frame and communicate their narrative in response to terrorism, can better manage to avoid blame and even to emerge victorious in times of violent conflict. The AKP in Turkey is one such important example. Our statistical analyses of municipality-level aggregate election results show that the party not only maintained national incumbency, but even strengthened its predominance in the political system in the face of growing security threats. In municipalities where AKP controlled the local government and hence municipal resources, the party did not lose votes following terrorist attacks. This finding remains even when we consider past voting, regional variations, competitive districts, and ethnicity. Our argument that incumbents can avoid punishment through their capacity to reach out to voters at the local level is also supported by individual-level survey data and the comparison with neighboring municipalities. As such, we highlight how local government control can be consequential for national politics, including periods when security dominates the national agenda.Publication Metadata only Avoiding fallout from terrorist attacks: the role of local politics and governments(Sage, 2022) Kemahlıoğlu, Özge; Kural, Ece; Department of International Relations; Department of International Relations; Erol, Emine Arı; Bayer, Reşat; Teaching Faculty; Faculty Member; Department of International Relations; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; N/A; 51395Even though violent attacks resulting in civilian fatalities can be seen as constituting failure on the part of the incumbent party to provide security to citizens, governments are not always punished electorally. Rather, at times, they appear to gain votes following terrorist attacks. Here we argue that political parties that can take advantage of their local presence to frame and communicate their narrative in response to terrorism, can better manage to avoid blame and even to emerge victorious in times of violent conflict. The AKP in Turkey is one such important example. Our statistical analyses of municipality-level aggregate election results show that the party not only maintained national incumbency, but even strengthened its predominance in the political system in the face of growing security threats. In municipalities where AKP controlled the local government and hence municipal resources, the party did not lose votes following terrorist attacks. This finding remains even when we consider past voting, regional variations, competitive districts, and ethnicity. Our argument that incumbents can avoid punishment through their capacity to reach out to voters at the local level is also supported by individual-level survey data and the comparison with neighboring municipalities. As such, we highlight how local government control can be consequential for national politics, including periods when security dominates the national agenda.Publication Metadata only Beyond opportunity costs: campaign messages, anger and turnout among the unemployed(Cambridge University Press (CUP), 2020) Rau, Eli Gavin; Stokes, Susan; Department of International Relations; Aytaç, Selim Erdem; Faculty Member; Department of International Relations; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; 224278Are people under economic stress more or less likely to vote, and why? With large observational datasets and a survey experiment involving unemployed Americans, we show that unemployment depresses participation. But it does so more powerfully when the unemployment rate is low, less powerfully when it is high. Whereas earlier studies have explained lower turnout among the unemployed by stressing the especially high opportunity costs these would-be voters face, our evidence points to the psychological effects of unemployment and of campaign messages about it. When unemployment is high, challengers have an incentive to blame the incumbent, thus eliciting anger among the unemployed. Psychologists have shown anger to be an approach or mobilizing emotion. When joblessness is low, campaigns tend to ignore it. The jobless thus remain in states of depression and self-blame, which are demobilizing emotions.Publication Metadata only Beyond the 2001 financial crisis: the political economy of the new phase of neo-liberal restructuring in Turkey(Routledge Journals, Taylor and Francis Ltd, 2009) N/A; Department of International Relations; Öniş, Ziya; Faculty Member; Department of International Relations; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; 7715Turkey has experienced consecutive financial crises in 2000 and 2001. the crisis of 2001 was particularly far-reaching in terms of its impact, resulting in a major collapse of output and employment. It was also quite distinct in terms of its income distributional consequences in the sense that not only the wage earners, but all sections of society at varying degrees encountered its negative consequences. the crisis also provided an avenue for a new wave of neo-liberal restructuring with a major emphasis on regulatory reforms. Turkey's political economy in the post-2001 era is investigated on the basis of four key inter-related elements: the impact of the IMF and the World Bank; the restructuring of the state's relationship with the domestic financial sector especially through regulatory reforms; the opening up of Turkey to foreign direct investment; and the adoption of a wide range of reforms modelled on the European Union, in line with the goal of entry into the EU. indeed, the regional context associated with EU conditionality has provided the political focus of the process as a whole. a key hypothesis is that Turkey continues to be vulnerable in spite of the fact that the banking sector is much more tightly regulated in line with international norms during the post-crisis era.Publication Metadata only Biased perceptions against female scientists affect intentions to get vaccinated for COVID-19(Sage Publications Ltd, 2022) Kuru, Ozan; Yıldırım, Kerem; N/A; Department of Media and Visual Arts; Department of Psychology; Department of International Relations; Doğan, İsminaz; Baruh, Lemi; Cemalcılar, Zeynep; Çarkoğlu, Ali; Master Student; Faculty Member; Faculty Member; Faculty Member; Department of Media and Visual Arts; Department of Psychology; Department of International Relations; Graduate School of Social Sciences and Humanities; College of Social Sciences and Humanities; College of Social Sciences and Humanities; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; N/A; 36113; 40374; 125588Based on role congruity theory, we investigated how gender bias may influence public attitudes toward the vaccine in Turkey. Using a between-subjects design, we tested whether an emphasis on the female versus the male scientist as the vaccine's inventor in a news story influenced attitudes about the BioNTech vaccine and vaccination intentions. Partly confirming role congruity theory, three-way interaction results from 665 participants demonstrated that among male participants with a stronger belief in traditional gender roles (compared to males with lower belief), the presence of the female inventor, either by herself or together with the male inventor, decreased the perceived efficacy and safety of the vaccine and reduced intentions to be vaccinated by the BioNTech vaccine. We did not observe such differences for women. These findings highlight how gender bias may influence individuals' information processing and decision making in a way that may have negative consequences for public health.Publication Open Access Bridging international political economy and public policy and administration research on central banking(Taylor _ Francis, 2021) Yağcı, Mustafa; Department of International Relations; Bakır, Caner; Faculty Member; Department of International Relations; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; 108141Central banking as an avenue of research has been of interest to scholars from International Political Economy (IPE) and Public Policy and Administration (PPA) disciplines. Nevertheless, there is very little dialogue between these two perspectives to bridge macro, meso, micro-level analyses and examine the reciprocal relationship between the global and domestic political economy context and monetary policy conduct. This article investigates the Turkish experience to bridge IPE and PPA scholarship on central banking in emerging economies. In doing so, we adopt an analytic eclectic approach combining multiple structural, institutional, and agential causal explanations with particular reference to the Structure, Institution, and Agency (SIA) theoretical framework. This is because analytic eclecticism complements, speaks to, and selectively incorporates theoretical approaches such as the New Independence Approach (NIA) of IPE and institutional and ideational PPA approaches. Drawing on the empirical context of the historical evolution of the Turkish political economy, we explore domestic and international interactions among micro, meso, and macro levels that shape central banking behavior. Our analysis also reveals how global dynamics are translated into domestic policy choices and how particular ideas influence the policymaking process. The analysis underscores the constraining and enabling influence of international dynamics, politics of ideas on emerging economy central banking, and the essential role individual and organizational agency play in the policymaking process.