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    Difficult choices: choosing the candidate of the nation alliance in the 2023 Turkish presidential election
    (Routledge, 2024) Department of Media and Visual Arts;Department of International Relations; Baruh, Lemi; Çarkoğlu, Ali; College of Social Sciences and Humanities; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics
    The Turkish presidential election in 2023 marked a pivotal moment for the ruling Justice and Development Party and Erdogan, grappling with criticism over their handling of the economic crisis. Six parties formed the Nation Alliance to challenge the incumbent, but negotiations for the alliance's presidential candidate collapsed, leading to the breakdown of the alliance. This study analyzes the divided opposition and its difficulty in nominating a likeable candidate as another reason for the continuation of President Erdogan's rule. A Response Surface Analysis (RSA) approach is utilized to describe the potential outcomes of the options that opposition parties considered regarding their presidential candidate. The analysis shows that the leader of the Republican People's Party, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, was weaker in appealing to the centre-right wing voters of the alliance partner, the Good Party, yet fared better in gathering the support of the Kurdish voter base of the Peoples' Democratic Party.
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    PublicationOpen Access
    Wallets, ballots, or bullets: does wealth, democracy, or military capabilities determine war outcomes?
    (Wiley, 2013) Henderson, Errol A.; Department of International Relations; Bayer, Reşat; Faculty Member; Department of International Relations; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; 51395
    We examine the extent to which wealth, democracy, and/or relative military capabilities contribute to victory in interstate war. Examining contingency tables, we find that states with greater military capabilities are more likely to win their wars whether they are wealthier or democratic, and democratic states perform marginally better than wealthier states in war. Probit analyses indicate that although each of the variables has a robust and positive impact on war victory, relative capabilities has the strongest substantive impact, followed by wealth, then democracy. Hazard analyses reveal that states with greater military capabilities fight shorter wars than either democracies or wealthier states, and controlling for capabilities and wealth, the relationship between democracy and war duration is not significant, which challenges the view that democracies have a unique propensity to fight shorter wars. We also find that the democratic victory phenomenon is not universal, but is contingent on the placement of a single country, Israel, in the Western or non-Western democracy category. In sum, our analyses indicate that although each of the three factors contributes to war victory, relative military capability is the most powerful, consistent, and robust predictor to victory in interstate war.