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    Difficult choices: choosing the candidate of the nation alliance in the 2023 Turkish presidential election
    (Routledge, 2024) Department of Media and Visual Arts;Department of International Relations; Baruh, Lemi; Çarkoğlu, Ali; College of Social Sciences and Humanities; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics
    The Turkish presidential election in 2023 marked a pivotal moment for the ruling Justice and Development Party and Erdogan, grappling with criticism over their handling of the economic crisis. Six parties formed the Nation Alliance to challenge the incumbent, but negotiations for the alliance's presidential candidate collapsed, leading to the breakdown of the alliance. This study analyzes the divided opposition and its difficulty in nominating a likeable candidate as another reason for the continuation of President Erdogan's rule. A Response Surface Analysis (RSA) approach is utilized to describe the potential outcomes of the options that opposition parties considered regarding their presidential candidate. The analysis shows that the leader of the Republican People's Party, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, was weaker in appealing to the centre-right wing voters of the alliance partner, the Good Party, yet fared better in gathering the support of the Kurdish voter base of the Peoples' Democratic Party.
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    Down and up the “U” – A synthetic cohort (panel) analysis of female labor force participation in Turkey, 1988–2013
    (Pergamon-Elsevier Science Ltd, 2021) Kırdar, Murat G.; Dayıoğlu, Meltem; Department of Economics; Tunalı, Fehmi İnsan; Faculty Member; Department of Economics; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; 105635
    We study the aggregate labor force participation behavior of women over a 25-year period in Turkey using a synthetic panel approach. In our decomposition of age, year, and cohort effects, we use three APC models that have received close scrutiny of the demography community. The exercise is repeated by rural/urban status and by education to tease out some key differences in behavior. Our comparative methodology yields remarkably consistent profiles for most subsamples, but not all. Notably all methods reveal an M-shaped age profile attributable to child-bearing related interruptions in rural areas and for low-educated women in urban areas. We also find that younger cohorts among the least-educated women are more likely to participate, contrary to the belief that culture stands in the way. The evidence we compiled confirms that Turkey has reached the turning point of the U-shaped pattern in female labor force participation observed in countries where agriculture initially accounts for a large fraction of employment. We dwell on methodological issues throughout the paper and seek explanations for the occasional fragility of the methods. We establish that evolution of the linear trend present in the cross-section age profiles is responsible for the differences in the findings. Despite the apparent inconsistency, the models we use are consistent in recovering the turning points of the age, period, and cohort profiles.
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    History matters for the export decision: plant-level evidence from Turkish manufacturing industry
    (Pergamon-Elsevier Science Ltd, 2009) Özler, Şule; Taymaz, Erol; Department of Economics; Yılmaz, Kamil; Faculty Member; Department of Economics; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; 6111
    We analyze the export decision of Turkish manufacturing plants from 1990 to 2001. In addition to the presence of high Sunk costs of entry in export market,,, we find support for the hypothesis that the full history of exporting matters for the current export decision. However, the effect of the past export experience on current export decision depreciates rapidly with time: recent export market participation matters more than the participation further in the past. Finally, while persistence in exporting helps lower the costs of re-entry today, there are diminishing returns to export experience. The results are robust to several plant characteristics (plant size, technology, composition of the employment), and the spillovers from the presence of exporters in the same industry.