Researcher: Akça, Belgin San
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Akça, Belgin San
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Publication Metadata only Large-n analysis in the study of conflict(Center Foreign Policy & Peace Research, 2019) Department of International Relations; Department of International Relations; Akça, Belgin San; Faculty Member; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; 107754In this paper; I examine the generation and use of large-N datasets and issues related to operationalization and measurement in the quantitative study of inter-state and infra-state conflict. Specifically, I critically evaluate the work on transnational dimensions of internal conflict and talk about my own journey related to my research on interactions between states and nonstate armed groups. I address the gaps in existing research, the use of proxy measures in large-N data analysis, and talk in detail about observational data collection and coding. I argue that future research should bridge the gap between studies of conflict across the fields of Comparative Politics and International relations. I make suggestions laying the standards of academic scholarship in collecting data and increasing transparency in research.Publication Metadata only Democracy and vulnerability: an exploitation theory of democracies by terrorists(Sage, 2014) Department of International Relations; Department of International Relations; Akça, Belgin San; Faculty Member; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; 107754The research on the influence of democracy on terrorism renders support for two causal mechanisms. One is that democracy reduces terrorism because it creates an environment in which dissenters can pursue their interests through peaceful means. The other argument states that democracy encourages terrorism due to the intrinsic liberties and freedoms that provide an opportunity for terrorists to easily organize, recruit, and mount operations. This article contributes to this second line of thought by framing support for rebel groups as one of the contexts in which democracy's influence on terrorism is examined. I identify a theoretical mechanism about how democratic states unknowingly facilitate terrorism by letting terrorists freely stay within their borders, raise funds, smuggle arms, and operate offices. The empirical findings provide support for the hypothesis that democracies are vulnerable and can easily be exploited by terrorists since they have an environment conducive to terrorist activities.Publication Metadata only International support networks and the calculus of uprising(Sage, 2020) Maoz, Zeev; Jackson, Jaime A; Department of International Relations; Department of International Relations; Akça, Belgin San; Faculty Member; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; 107754How does the anticipation of external support for both opposition groups and governments affect the likelihood and form (violent vs. nonviolent) of uprising within states? We develop a novel approach to address these issues, building on a network perspective. Our model suggests that both opposition groups and governments' strategies are affected by an anticipation of the degree and nature of expected support by external parties (states and non-state actors). Using a set of indicators - including cultural affinity, strategic factors, and normative values - we develop a unique measure of anticipated support based on the potential support networks of target states and their opposition in order to evaluate our hypotheses. We argue that the anticipated balance of support for opposition and governments affects: (a) the likelihood of uprising and (b) the principal - violent or nonviolent - strategy used by the opposition group. We analyze data on violent and nonviolent civil conflicts over the period 1946-2010. We find that when the balance of anticipated support favors the opposition over their target government, the onset of an uprising is more likely. Specifically, the type of anticipated support has implications for whether a violent or nonviolent uprising occurs. These findings provide new insights into the role external support can play even before conflict occurs.Publication Metadata only Causes and consequences of unbalanced relations in the international politics of the Middle East, 1946-2010(Taylor and Francis Inc., 2015) Maoz, Zeev; Department of International Relations; Department of International Relations; Akça, Belgin San; Faculty Member; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; 107754N/APublication Metadata only Turkey’s grand strategy in the post-liberal era: democratic assertiveness(Stratejik Araştırmalar Merkezi, 2020) Department of International Relations; Department of International Relations; Akça, Belgin San; Faculty Member; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; 107754The global security environment has been in flux for almost two decades now, and Turkey has been at the center of the major global shifts that have taken place since the end of the Cold War. The demise of the Soviet Union, the democratic revolutions in the Eastern European countries, the Gulf War, the invasion of Iraq in 2003, the Arab Spring and the subsequent domestic turmoil in some of its neighboring countries, such as Syria, have influenced Turkey dramatically. Among the recent major challenges, one can count an unprecedented refugee flow, the loss of interest by the U.S. in the Middle East and the ensuing opening of a sphere of influence for authoritarian countries like Russia and Iran to fill the vacuum, the revival of terrorist attacks and the halting of the long-awaited peace process to achieve a long-lasting solution to the Kurdish problem, and the strained relations with the EU. All of these challenges coincide with a period in world history characterized by the decline of the institutions-based order, rising nationalism and authoritarianism in the most advanced democracies and-last but not least-a shift from a unipolar world to a multipolar one. In order to meet these challenges, I recommend that Turkey employ a grand strategy of democratic assertiveness, which consists of (a) persistent democratic reforms in the domestic realm and (b) an assertive defense strategy in the military realm. In the present article, I analyze the existing state of the international environment to identify the risks and opportunities and to assess the overall instruments available to policymakers. I conclude with a presentation of the main pillars of Turkish grand strategy for a concrete recipe for policymakers.Publication Metadata only Rivalry and state support of non-state armed groups (NAGs), 1946-2001(Oxford Univ Press, 2012) Maoz, Zeev; Department of International Relations; Department of International Relations; Akça, Belgin San; Faculty Member; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; 107754Maoz, Zeev and Belgin San-Akca. (2012) Rivalry and State Support of Non-State Armed Groups (NAGs), 19462001. International Studies Quarterly, doi: 10.1111/j.1468-2478.2012.00759.x ?(c) 2012 International Studies Association This study examines the conditions under which states engaged in strategic rivalries choose to support Non-state Armed Groups (NAGs) that target their rivals. NAGs include ethnic or religious insurgents, guerilla organizations, and terrorists. We develop a rational choice model of state support for NAGs. We focus on state support of NAGs as cooperation between states and NAGs emerging out of a mutual and purposive decision-making process. The model suggests that decisions of states to support NAGs targeting a rival are affected by dissatisfaction with the status quo and the expected risk of retaliation. Rivalries create opportunities for NAGs that operate against one of the rivals, allowing them to acquire resources to sustain their operations. The presence of rivalry increases the likelihood of state-NAG cooperation. In turn, state-NAG cooperation increases the likelihood of rivalry escalation. We test the propositions of the model using an original data set that includes observations for 175 NAGs and 83 state supporters in the post-WWII period. We find consistent support for our propositions. We discuss the implications of these results for the theory and practice of international relations.Publication Metadata only Supporting non-state armed groups: a resort to illegality?(Routledge Journals, Taylor & Francis Ltd, 2009) Department of International Relations; Department of International Relations; Akça, Belgin San; Faculty Member; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; 107754States have suffered equally, if not more, from violence generated by Non-state Armed Groups (NAGs), such as ethnic and religious insurgencies and terrorists, than violence directly generated by their counterparts. This does not undermine the fact that states occasionally provide support to these groups in the form of safe havens, weapons, and funding. This paper argues that state support is a function of the states' vulnerability in extracting and mobilizing resources to secure their borders. In contrast to the conception that weak or failed states provide the largest pool of resources to NAGs, the relatively strong states still prevail as their most fervent supporters. The preliminary evidence also suggests that NAGs serve as substitutes for allies.Publication Open Access Does natural gas fuel civil war? rethinking energy security, international relations, and fossil-fuel conflict(Elsevier, 2020) Department of International Relations; N/A; Department of International Relations; Akça, Belgin San; Yılmaz, Şuhnaz Özbağcı; Mehmetoğlu, Seda Duygu Sever; Faculty Member; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; Graduate School of Social Sciences and Humanities; 107754; 46805; N/AThis article advances theoretical and empirical knowledge at the nexus of energy politics and conflict intervention by analyzing the complex dynamics connecting energy resources, civil war, and outside state support of rebel groups. It focuses on the role of global energy supply competition in states’ decision to support armed groups that are involved in conflicts in other states. Further, this study enhances the extant research that focuses primarily on the resource wealth of conflict-ridden states by analyzing the effect of the interveners' resource wealth on their sponsorship of foreign non-state armed groups. This study identifies two causal paths linking energy resources, specifically natural gas, to state support of rebels by building on outside state supporters’ motives for: (1) competition over supply to global markets; and (2) secure access to resources and supply routes. The empirical section includes a large-N analysis on original data covering 454 rebel groups and their state supporters and a detailed case study of the Russian intervention in Crimea and Eastern Ukraine.Publication Open Access Forum: conflict delegation in civil wars(Oxford University Press (OUP), 2021) Karlen, N.; Rauta, V.; Salehyan, I.; Mumford, A.; Stark, A.; Wyss, M.; Moghadam, A.; Duursama, A.; Tamm, H.; Jenne, Erin K.; Popovic, M.; Department of International Relations; Department of International Relations; Akça, Belgin San; Faculty Member; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; 107754This forum provides an outlet for an assessment of research on the delegation of war to non-state armed groups in civil wars. Given the significant growth of studies concerned with this phenomenon over the last decade, this forum critically engages with the present state of the field. First, we canvass some of the most important theoretical developments to demonstrate the heterogeneity of the debate. Second, we expand on the theme of complexity and investigate its multiple facets as a window into pushing the debate forward. Third, we draw the contours of a future research agenda by highlighting some contemporary problems, puzzles, and challenges to empirical data collection. In essence, we seek to connect two main literatures that have been talking past each other: external support in civil wars and proxy warfare. The forum bridges this gap at a critical juncture in this new and emerging scholarship by offering space for scholarly dialogue across conceptual labels.Publication Open Access Large-N analysis in the study of conflict(Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research, 2019) Department of International Relations; Department of International Relations; Akça, Belgin San; Faculty Member; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; 107754In this paper, I examine the generation and use of large-N datasets and issues related to perationalization and measurement in the quantitative study of inter-state and intra-state conflict. Specifically, I critically evaluate the work on transnational dimensions of internal conflict and talk about my own journey related to my research on interactions between states and nonstate armed groups. I address the gaps in existing research, the use of proxy measures in large-N data analysis, and talk in detail about observational data collection and coding. I argue that future research should bridge the gap between studies of conflict across the fields of Comparative Politics and International Relations. I make suggestions laying the standards of academic scholarship in collecting data and increasing transparency in research.