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Bayer, Reşat

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Reşat

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Now showing 1 - 10 of 13
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    Effects of civil wars on international trade, 1950-92
    (Sage, 2004) Rupert, Matthew C.; Department of International Relations; Bayer, Reşat; Faculty Member; Department of International Relations; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; 51395
    The relationship between economic interdependence and international conflict is a burgeoning research topic. Previous research has examined the role of interstate conflict on bilateral total trade. Civil wars also have severe consequences on society and are not uncommon. This article seeks to shed light on this relationship by examining the impact of civil war in one country on the total bilateral trade between the afflicted state and its trade partners. The repercussions of civil war participation on a militarily intervening third party's trade also receive scrutiny. Furthermore, the outcome of the civil war is investigated to determine whether all war terminations have the same effects on trade. Finally, this article questions whether the effects of civil wars can be mitigated by security partnerships. One key finding from analyses of 120 countries between 1950 and 1992 is that civil wars decrease bilateral trade between states by one-third. In addition, the findings indicate that the effects of civil wars on trade are not limited to countries where the civil wars are occurring but also affect joiners. Furthermore, the outcome types of civil wars have repercussions for future bilateral trade and, under certain situations, their effects can be alleviated.
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    The puzzle of peace: the evolution of peace in the international system
    (Cambridge Univ Press, 2018) Department of International Relations; Bayer, Reşat; Faculty Member; Department of International Relations; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; 51395
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    Favoring co-partisan controlled areas in central government distributive programs: the role of local party organizations
    (Springer, 2021) Kemahlioğlu, Özge; Department of International Relations; Bayer, Reşat; Faculty Member; Department of International Relations; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; 51395
    We analyze the non-contributory health insurance program ("green cards") in Turkey with RDD (Regression Discontinuity Design) and show that more citizens receive green cards in municipalities controlled by the national incumbent party, AKP (Adalalet ve Kalkinma Partisi). Our explanation for the finding emphasizes the role of local party organizations and sub-national incumbency. Local government control provides additional resources to the party to strengthen its organization, which then helps the party to target the beneficiaries of central government programs like green cards more effectively. Theoretically, we join the literature that uncovers the significance of incorporating local actors into the analysis of central government programs. Our contribution lies in depicting the mediating role of political parties and their local organizations. Even in a highly centralized context like Turkey, parties' informal role affects program implementation. Unequal access to free healthcare results from the asymmetry between national and opposition parties in how their local organizations interact with the central government.
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    Democratization in conflict research: how conceptualization affects operationalization and testing outcomes
    (Routledge Journals, Taylor and Francis Ltd, 2017) Bernhard, Michael; Orsun, Omer Faruk; Department of International Relations; Bayer, Reşat; Faculty Member; Department of International Relations; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; 51395
    Using the debate over democratization and conflict, we demonstrate how the connection between conceptualization and operationalization can play a decisive role in testing falsifiable hypotheses. We discuss seven different operationalizations of regime change based on three different conceptualizations of democracy. Although we find high correlations between different measures of democracy, when they are used to capture regime change, the correlations drop precipitously. In multivariate estimations of the effect of regime change on a range of conflict variables, we generate widely disparate results, providing no consistent support that democratization affects conflict. We thus demonstrate that decisions about conceptualization and subsequent operationalization have decisive impact on the inference we produce. In contrast, our controls for the effect of institutionalized democracy consistently show a negative relationship between joint democracy and conflict. Finally, autocratic regime change seems to be more robustly correlated with a range of conflict behaviors than heretofore recognized in this literature.
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    Turkey: an emerging hub of globalization and internationalist humanitarian actor?
    (Routledge Journals, Taylor & Francis Ltd, 2012) Keyman, E. Fuat; Department of International Relations; Bayer, Reşat; Faculty Member; Department of International Relations; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; 51395
    In an era of global turmoil generating significant challenges to global security and requiring global solutions, humanitarian intervention, and assistance become central concerns at the intersection of globalization studies and international relations. In this context, Turkey is emerging as a more proactive and autonomous actor in foreign policy and as a regional and global force in peacekeeping and humanitarian operations, making the country one of the key actors of world politics. In this article, we demonstrate Turkey's contributions to global security through its increasing involvement in humanitarian assistance in different regions of the world, and suggest that in doing so Turkey is not only contributing to global security but also creating new norms of democratic global governance that bridge several seemingly contradictory formations: European integration and Islamic solidarity; global South ascendance and NATO stabilization; Ottoman nostalgia and internationalist modernism. But the primary focus will be Turkish protagonism in peacekeeping interventions in Afghanistan to demonstrate the multilateral manner through which humanitarian assistance norms are implemented.
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    Avoiding fallout from terrorist attacks: the role of local politics and governments
    (Sage, 2022) Kemahlıoğlu, Özge; Kural, Ece; Department of International Relations; Department of International Relations; Erol, Emine Arı; Bayer, Reşat; Teaching Faculty; Faculty Member; Department of International Relations; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; N/A; 51395
    Even though violent attacks resulting in civilian fatalities can be seen as constituting failure on the part of the incumbent party to provide security to citizens, governments are not always punished electorally. Rather, at times, they appear to gain votes following terrorist attacks. Here we argue that political parties that can take advantage of their local presence to frame and communicate their narrative in response to terrorism, can better manage to avoid blame and even to emerge victorious in times of violent conflict. The AKP in Turkey is one such important example. Our statistical analyses of municipality-level aggregate election results show that the party not only maintained national incumbency, but even strengthened its predominance in the political system in the face of growing security threats. In municipalities where AKP controlled the local government and hence municipal resources, the party did not lose votes following terrorist attacks. This finding remains even when we consider past voting, regional variations, competitive districts, and ethnicity. Our argument that incumbents can avoid punishment through their capacity to reach out to voters at the local level is also supported by individual-level survey data and the comparison with neighboring municipalities. As such, we highlight how local government control can be consequential for national politics, including periods when security dominates the national agenda.
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    PublicationOpen Access
    Termination of the vendetta of the Black Sea? Stable peace, energy security and Russian–Turkish relations
    (Routledge, 2013) Department of International Relations; Bayer, Reşat; Faculty Member; Department of International Relations; Graduate School of Social Sciences and Humanities; 51395
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    The operationalization of democracy and the strength of the democratic peace: a test of the relative utility of scalar and dichotomous measures
    (Sage, 2010) Bernhard, Michael; Department of International Relations; Bayer, Reşat; Faculty Member; Department of International Relations; Graduate School of Social Sciences and Humanities; 51395
    The idea that democracies are less apt to engage in conflict with each other is a central finding in international relations. Yet the operationalization of democracy in this literature has been relatively unreflective. Since the mid-1990s the majority of studies have used Polity. In this paper we raise substantial concerns about its use, notably that there is a mismatch between conceptualization of democracy as a regime type and using an interval scale to measure it. If our contention is correct, we would expect to find that models that use a dichotomous coding should either pro-vide different results from Polity or at minimum fit the data better. We then test this contention by comparing the results of tests of the democratic peace using Polity in its interval scalar form and several common dichotomous codings of democracy. The tests are supportive of the contention that dichotomous coding better captures the notion of “democracy.” At minimum we believe that findings using Polity should be verified for robustness using a dichotomous coding.
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    PublicationOpen Access
    When and whom to join: the expansion of ongoing violent interstate conflicts
    (Cambridge University Press (CUP), 2014) Joyce, Kyle A.; Ghosn, Faten; Department of International Relations; Bayer, Reşat; Faculty Member; Department of International Relations; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; 51395
    The opportunity and willingness framework has received much attention in research on interstate conflict expansion. This framework is extended here by examining when and what side third parties join during ongoing conflicts. It is maintained that without examining both timing and side selection, understanding of conflict expansion is limited. The timing and side joined in interstate disputes between 1816 and 2001 are analysed using a competing risks duration model. The findings contribute novel insights into many key debates in conflict research such as balancing versus bandwagoning, as well as alliance reliability and the democratic peace. The results also indicate that relying on statistical models that do not distinguish between which side a third party can join may produce misleading results.
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    Wallets, ballots, or bullets: does wealth, democracy, or military capabilities determine war outcomes?
    (Wiley, 2013) Henderson, Errol A.; Department of International Relations; Bayer, Reşat; Faculty Member; Department of International Relations; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; 51395
    We examine the extent to which wealth, democracy, and/or relative military capabilities contribute to victory in interstate war. Examining contingency tables, we find that states with greater military capabilities are more likely to win their wars whether they are wealthier or democratic, and democratic states perform marginally better than wealthier states in war. Probit analyses indicate that although each of the variables has a robust and positive impact on war victory, relative capabilities has the strongest substantive impact, followed by wealth, then democracy. Hazard analyses reveal that states with greater military capabilities fight shorter wars than either democracies or wealthier states, and controlling for capabilities and wealth, the relationship between democracy and war duration is not significant, which challenges the view that democracies have a unique propensity to fight shorter wars. We also find that the democratic victory phenomenon is not universal, but is contingent on the placement of a single country, Israel, in the Western or non-Western democracy category. In sum, our analyses indicate that although each of the three factors contributes to war victory, relative military capability is the most powerful, consistent, and robust predictor to victory in interstate war.