Researcher: Post, Gerrit Tjeerd
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Post, Gerrit Tjeerd
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Publication Metadata only Linear tests for decreasing absolute risk aversion stochastic dominance(The Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS), 2015) Fang, Yi; Kopa, Milos; N/A; Post, Gerrit Tjeerd; Other; Graduate School of Business; N/AWe develop and implement linear formulations of convex stochastic dominance relations based on decreasing absolute risk aversion (DARA) for discrete and polyhedral choice sets. Our approach is based on a piecewise-exponential representation of utility and a local linear approximation to the exponentiation of log marginal utility. An empirical application to historical stock market data suggests that a passive stock market portfolio is DARA stochastic dominance inefficient relative to concentrated portfolios of small-cap stocks. The mean-variance rule and Nth-order stochastic dominance rules substantially underestimate the degree of market portfolio inefficiency because they do not penalize the unfavorable skewness of diversified portfolios, in violation of DARA.Publication Metadata only Standard stochastic dominance(Elsevier Science Bv, 2016) N/A; N/A; Post, Gerrit Tjeerd; Other; Graduate School of Business; N/AWe propose a new Stochastic Dominance (SD) criterion based on standard risk aversion, which assumes decreasing absolute risk aversion and decreasing absolute prudence. To implement the proposed criterion, we develop linear systems of optimality conditions for a given prospect relative to a discrete or polyhedral choice opportunity set in a general state-space model. An empirical application to historical stock market data shows that small-loser stocks are more appealing to standard risk averters than the existing mean-variance (MV) and higher-order SD criteria suggest, due to their upside potential. Depending on the assumed trading strategy and evaluation horizon, accounting for standardness increases the estimated abnormal returns of these stocks by about 50 to 200 basis points per annum relative to MV and higher-order SD criteria. An analysis of the MV tangency portfolio shows that the opportunity cost of the MV approximation to direct utility maximization can be substantial.Publication Metadata only Downside risk aversion, fixed-income exposure, and the value premium puzzle(Elsevier Science Bv, 2012) Baltussen, Guido; Van Vliet, Pim; N/A; Post, Gerrit Tjeerd; Other; Graduate School of Business; N/AThe value premium is relatively small for investors with a material fixed-income exposure, such as insurance companies and pension funds, especially when they are downside-risk-averse. Value stocks are less attractive to these investors because they offer a relatively poor hedge against poor bond returns. This result arises for plausible, medium-term evaluation horizons of around one year. Our findings cast doubt on the practical relevance of the value premium for these investors and reiterate the importance of the choice of the relevant test portfolio, risk measure and investment horizon in empirical tests of market portfolio efficiency.Publication Metadata only Irrational diversification: an examination of individual portfolio choice(Cambridge University Press (CUP), 2011) Baltussen, Guido; N/A; Post, Gerrit Tjeerd; Other; Graduate School of Business; N/AWe study individual portfolio choice in a laboratory experiment and find strong evidence for heuristic behavior. The subjects tend to focus on the marginal distribution of an asset, while largely ignoring its diversification benefits. They follow a conditional 1/n diversification heuristic as they exclude the assets with an "unattractive" marginal distribution and divide the available funds equally between the remaining "attractive" assets. This strategy is applied even if it leads to allocations that are dominated in terms of first-order stochastic dominance and is clearly irrational. In line with these findings, we find that framing and problem presentation have substantial influence on portfolio decisions.Publication Metadata only General linear formulations of stochastic dominance criteria(Elsevier, 2013) Kopa, Milos; N/A; Post, Gerrit Tjeerd; Other; Graduate School of Business; N/AWe develop and implement linear formulations of general Nth order stochastic dominance criteria for discrete probability distributions. Our approach is based on a piece-wise polynomial representation of utility and its derivatives and can be implemented by solving a relatively small system of linear inequalities. This approach allows for comparing a given prospect with a discrete set of alternative prospects as well as for comparison with a polyhedral set of linear combinations of prospects. We also derive a linear dual formulation in terms of lower partial moments and co-lower partial moments. An empirical application to historical stock market data suggests that the passive stock market portfolio is highly inefficient relative to actively managed portfolios for all investment horizons and for nearly all investors. The results also illustrate that the mean-variance rule and second-order stochastic dominance rule may not detect market portfolio inefficiency because of non-trivial violations of non-satiation and prudence.Publication Metadata only Portfolio choice based on third-degree stochastic dominance(Informs, 2017) Kopa, Miloš; N/A; Post, Gerrit Tjeerd; Other; Graduate School of Business; N/AWe develop an optimization method for constructing investment portfolios that dominate a given benchmark portfolio in terms of third-degree stochastic dominance. Our approach relies on the properties of the semivariance function, a refinement of an existing "superconvex" dominance condition, and quadratic constrained programming. We apply our method to historical stock market data using an industry momentum strategy. Our enhanced portfolio generates important performance improvements compared with alternatives based on mean-variance dominance and second-degree stochastic dominance. Relative to the Center for Research in Security Prices all-share index, our portfolio increases average out-of-sample return by almost seven percentage points per annum without incurring more downside risk, using quarterly rebalancing and without short selling.Publication Metadata only Empirical tests for stochastic dominance optimality(Oxford Univ Press, 2017) N/A; N/A; Post, Gerrit Tjeerd; Other; Graduate School of Business; N/AIf a given risky prospect is compared with multiple choice alternatives, then a joint test for optimality is more appropriate than a series of pairwise Stochastic Dominance tests. We develop and implement a bootstrap empirical likelihood ratio test for this hypothesis. The test statistic and implied probabilities can be computed by searching over discrete distributions that obey a system of linear inequalities using quasi-Monte Carlo simulation and convex optimization methods. An extension of the Kroll-Levy simulation experiment shows favorable small-sample properties for data sets of realistic dimensions. In an application to Fama-French stock portfolios, pairwise tests classify a portfolio of small growth stocks as admissible, whereas our test classifies the portfolio as significantly non-optimal for every risk averter.Publication Metadata only Portfolio analysis using stochastic dominance, relative entropy, and empirical likelihood(The Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS), 2017) Poti, Valerio; N/A; Post, Gerrit Tjeerd; Other; Graduate School of Business ; N/AThis study formulates portfolio analysis in terms of stochastic dominance, relative entropy, and empirical likelihood. We define a portfolio inefficiency measure based on the divergence between given probabilities and the nearest probabilities that rationalize a given portfolio for some admissible utility function. When applied to a sample of time-series observations in a blockwise fashion, the inefficiency measure becomes a likelihood ratio statistic for testing inequality moment conditions. The limiting distribution of the test statistic is bounded by a chi-squared distribution under general sampling schemes, allowing for conservative large-sample testing. We develop a tight numerical approximation for the test statistic based on a two-stage optimization procedure and piecewise linearization techniques. A Monte Carlo simulation study of the empirical likelihood ratio test shows superior small-sample properties compared with various generalized method of moments tests. An application analyzes the efficiency of a passive stock market index in data sets from the empirical asset pricing literature.Publication Metadata only Trading volume, return variability and short-term momentum(Routledge Journals, Taylor & Francis Ltd, 2018) Department of Business Administration; N/A; Gökçen, Umut; Post, Gerrit Tjeerd; Faculty Member; Other; Department of Business Administration; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; Graduate School of Business; 135461; N/AWe propose short-term averages of daily stock-level trading volume and return variability as proxies for latent corporate news flow. Conditioning momentum strategies on these two proxies give a significant boost to winner-minus-loser alphas. Regardless of the portfolio formation and holding periods, price drift is larger after elevated levels of volume and variability, supporting the view that prices underreact to news. This pattern is not driven by micro-cap stocks and it is robust to corrections for systematic risk factors and stock characteristics such as liquidity and credit quality.Publication Metadata only Aggregate investor preferences and beliefs: a comment(Elsevier Science Bv, 2013) Kopa, Milos; N/A; Post, Gerrit Tjeerd; Other; Graduate School of Business; N/AA recent study in this journal presents encouraging results of a daunting simulation analysis of the statistical properties of a centered bootstrap approach to stochastic dominance efficiency analysis. However, by relying on the first-order optimality condition in a situation where multiple optima may occur, the empirical analysis draws the questionable conclusion that some of the toughest data sets in empirical asset pricing can be rationalized by the representative investor maximizing an S-shaped utility function, consistent with the so-called Prospect Stochastic Dominance criterion. Further research could be directed to developing global optimization algorithms and consistent re-sampling methods for statistical inference for general risky choice problems.