When polarization meets backsliding: affective polarization and support for undemocratic practices in Turkey

Abstract

While the corrosive effect of affective polarization on democratic norms is a major concern, existing research has largely overlooked its dynamics outside established democracies. This study addresses this gap by examining Turkey, a paradigmatic, highly polarized hybrid regime where democratic norms are actively contested. Drawing on original, nationally representative survey data from spring 2024, we investigate how affective polarization shapes citizens’ willingness to endorse concrete violations of electoral fairness and civil liberties, moving beyond abstract measures of democratic support. We find that higher levels of affective polarization are strongly associated with greater endorsement of undemocratic practices motivated by both out-party discrimination and in-party favouritism, though the association is somewhat stronger for the latter. This relationship holds among both government and opposition supporters, challenging the assumption that tolerance for such practices is unique to incumbent partisans. Contrary to recent evidence from Western democracies, we find no curvilinear relationship: affective polarization in Turkey consistently predicts greater tolerance of democratic violations. By analysing a case of sustained democratic backsliding, we extend debates on affective polarization beyond consolidated democracies, showing how it can create a permissive environment for illiberal practices and undermine citizen commitment to democratic norms.