Evaluating the impact of China’s “Wolf Warrior Diplomacy” in East Asia: an experimental approach

Abstract

“Wolf Warrior Diplomacy,” characterized by its assertive and confrontational tone, marks a significant shift in China’s international communication strategy. While it has attracted global attention, emerging evidence suggests that its aggressive rhetoric may be counterproductive, alienating democratic publics. This study investigates the impact of “Wolf Warrior Diplomacy” in Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan—three East Asian democracies with complex relationships with China that have been underexplored as targets of this strategy. In a preregistered online experiment conducted in each country, participants were randomly assigned to view either neutral content or posts that aggressively emphasized China’s superiority over the United States. The results indicate that exposure to “Wolf Warrior” messaging produces modest but statistically detectable declines in several China-directed evaluations across the three countries, with the largest and most consistent attitudinal shifts in South Korea. Although some negative effects on perceptions of the United States were observed, these were sporadic and inconsistent. Support for democratic values remained largely unchanged, and participants exhibited a low willingness to share “Wolf Warrior” messages on social media, limiting the strategy’s potential for broader dissemination. Overall, China’s combative diplomatic messaging appears not only ineffective but also potentially counterproductive in shaping public opinion in East Asian democracies, offering important implications for political communication and the limits of authoritarian soft power.