Measuring the EU's perspective on Turkey's accession: a text as data approach

Abstract

This study examines the European Union (EU)'s enlargement policy and its evaluation process, focusing on Turkey's accession journey. It aims to understand how the EU's evaluations change in response to candidate states' domestic political dynamics. Using a novel quantitative approach, a text as data method, this study analyses the European Commission's annual country reports on Turkey from 1998 to 2023. Specifically, it employs keyword-assisted topic models and latent semantic scaling to explore changes in EU evaluations over time. Turkey's case is significant due to its long-standing candidacy, complex relationship with the EU and shifting domestic politics. By analysing extensive textual data, this study addresses the limitations of previous research and presents a methodological framework applicable to other candidate states. The findings offer new insights into EU evaluation criteria and EU-Turkey relations, potentially informing future EU enlargement policies and relations with candidate states.