Publication:
Automated Box-Jenkins methodology to forecast the prices of crude oil and its derivatives

dc.contributor.coauthorOzkan, Gurkan
dc.contributor.departmentDepartment of Industrial Engineering
dc.contributor.departmentGraduate School of Sciences and Engineering
dc.contributor.departmentKUTEM (Koç University Tüpraş Energy Center)
dc.contributor.kuauthorSerfidan, Ahmet Can
dc.contributor.kuauthorTürkay, Metin
dc.contributor.schoolcollegeinstituteCollege of Engineering
dc.contributor.schoolcollegeinstituteGRADUATE SCHOOL OF SCIENCES AND ENGINEERING
dc.contributor.schoolcollegeinstituteResearch Center
dc.date.accessioned2024-11-09T23:52:45Z
dc.date.issued2021
dc.description.abstractDeveloping forecasting models that incorporate that external parameters in addition to past data for crude oil and derivatives are a challenging task since it is highly dependent on economic, geographical, and political issues. However, forecasting the prices is very important for strategic planning and oil refineries’ operational decisions. This paper presents an automated tool to predict crude oil prices and their main products by applying Box-Jenkins methodology for the next two months at the beginning of each month in a rolling horizon manner. The resulting forecast is shared with related departments to develop their production plans accordingly. We show that improved accuracy with this forecasting approach is beneficial in any planning and decision-making process and increases profit.
dc.description.indexedbyScopus
dc.description.openaccessYES
dc.description.publisherscopeInternational
dc.description.sponsoredbyTubitakEuN/A
dc.description.volume50
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/B978-0-323-88506-5.50100-5
dc.identifier.issn1570-7946
dc.identifier.scopus2-s2.0-85110484117
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-323-88506-5.50100-5
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14288/14892
dc.keywordsCox-Jenkins
dc.keywordsCrude oil
dc.keywordsPrice forecasting
dc.keywordsSARIMA
dc.language.isoeng
dc.publisherElsevier B.V.
dc.relation.ispartofComputer Aided Chemical Engineering
dc.subjectPetroleum
dc.subjectPetroleum industry trade
dc.subjectForecasting
dc.titleAutomated Box-Jenkins methodology to forecast the prices of crude oil and its derivatives
dc.typeBook Chapter
dspace.entity.typePublication
local.contributor.kuauthorTürkay, Metin
local.contributor.kuauthorSerfidan, Ahmet Can
local.publication.orgunit1College of Engineering
local.publication.orgunit1GRADUATE SCHOOL OF SCIENCES AND ENGINEERING
local.publication.orgunit1Research Center
local.publication.orgunit2Department of Industrial Engineering
local.publication.orgunit2KUTEM (Koç University Tüpraş Energy Center)
local.publication.orgunit2Graduate School of Sciences and Engineering
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