Middle powers between the west and the "rest": Turkey during the Russian war on Ukraine

Abstract

Turkey is a middle power that has been illustrating proactive foreign policy over the last decades with a strong motivation for "strategic autonomy." Turkish foreign policy during the Russian invasion of Ukraine is an interesting case in which to examine and understand the role of middle powers in the changing international order. Especially in the context of widening gaps between the geopolitical positioning of the West, led by the United States and the European Union, and the "Rest," increasingly represented by BRICS economies, many countries are struggling in between. The paper highlights the positioning of Turkey during the Russian War on Ukraine and argues that it is much closer to those of major BRICS and most countries in the "Global South" than its traditional Western Allies. We argue that the reasons that enabled Turkey to maneuver such proactive foreign policy during the War can be explained by the intertwined effect of the manifestation of "strategic autonomy" in the decision-making, highly centralized populist leadership at home, and the growing room at the international and the regional environment for middle power activism.