Armenia and Türkiye between conflict and cooperation: explaining (with) disaster diplomacy

Abstract

Over the past 30 years, the relationship between the neighbouring states of Armenia and Türkiye has been greatly influenced by a politicised atmosphere and ongoing debates about their shared history, alongside efforts at reconciliation. It is noteworthy that, in a global context increasingly characterised by both anthropogenic and natural calamities, the phenomenon of (shared) disasters as it pertains to the dynamics of Armenia–Türkiye relations has garnered relatively scant scholarly attention. This study investigates instances of the COVID-19 (coronavirus disease 2019) pandemic on a global scale and the Kahramanmaraş (Türkiye) earthquakes that occurred on 6 February 2023, which serve as disasters possessing diplomatic and symbolic significance that could facilitate a transition from a state of conflict to one of cooperative peace between these two nations. Utilising a disaster diplomacy framework and incorporating data obtained from Armenia and Türkiye, this paper posits that disasters may function as a substantial catalyst in fostering diplomatic conditions and advancing efforts towards rapprochement.