Publication:
Simulation of migration paths using agent-based modeling: the case of Syrian refugees en route to Turkey

dc.contributor.coauthorGungor, Ozlem
dc.contributor.coauthorGunnec, Dilek
dc.contributor.coauthorYucel, Eda
dc.contributor.departmentDepartment of Industrial Engineering
dc.contributor.kuauthorSalman, Fatma Sibel
dc.contributor.kuauthorGüngör, Özlem
dc.contributor.schoolcollegeinstituteCollege of Engineering
dc.date.accessioned2025-03-06T21:00:33Z
dc.date.issued2024
dc.description.abstractThe decade-long Syrian civil war has triggered a significant migration wave in the Middle East, with Turkey hosting the largest number of Syrian refugees. Our study introduces an agent-based model (ABM) designed to simulate and predict migration paths in potential future refugee crises. The primary goal is to support aid organizations in planning the delivery of essential aid services during migration movements, offering insights that can be applied to various geographical areas and migration scenarios. While we use the Syrian refugee movement to Turkey as a case study, the model is intended as a flexible tool for analyzing migration patterns in future crises. The proposed ABM considers two characteristics of refugee groups: level of risk sensitivity and level of information. To enhance the model's functionality, we have extended the A* algorithm with a cost metric to calculate the weighted average of distance and risk to a destination point. Our case study examines the crisis in southern Idlib through six scenarios, offering insights into refugee numbers, migration paths, camp occupancy rates, and heat maps of densely populated regions for each scenario. Validation is performed by comparing model outcomes with situation reports and official statements from the relevant period, demonstrating the proposed ABM's potential for adaptation to other migration instances and further analysis under different parameters.
dc.description.indexedbyWOS
dc.description.indexedbyScopus
dc.description.publisherscopeInternational
dc.description.sponsoredbyTubitakEuTÜBİTAK
dc.description.sponsorshipThis research was supported by TUB and Idot;TAK [Grant number 119M229] . We would like to thank our undergraduate researcher Gizem Gune and scedil;for her help in the development process of the new cost metric.
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.seps.2024.102089
dc.identifier.eissn1873-6041
dc.identifier.grantnoTUBIdot;TAK [119M229]
dc.identifier.issn0038-0121
dc.identifier.quartileQ1
dc.identifier.scopus2-s2.0-85207012240
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.seps.2024.102089
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14288/27916
dc.identifier.volume96
dc.identifier.wos1344570700001
dc.keywordsForced migration
dc.keywordsSyrian refugees
dc.keywordsAgent-based modeling
dc.keywordsMigration paths
dc.keywordsRisk sensitivity
dc.language.isoeng
dc.publisherElsevier
dc.relation.ispartofSocio-Economic Planning Sciences
dc.subjectEconomics
dc.subjectManagement
dc.subjectOperations research and management science
dc.titleSimulation of migration paths using agent-based modeling: the case of Syrian refugees en route to Turkey
dc.typeJournal Article
dspace.entity.typePublication
local.contributor.kuauthorSalman, Fatma Sibel
local.contributor.kuauthorGüngör, Özlem
local.publication.orgunit1College of Engineering
local.publication.orgunit2Department of Industrial Engineering
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relation.isParentOrgUnitOfPublication8e756b23-2d4a-4ce8-b1b3-62c794a8c164
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