Burning bridges or bridging divides: geopolitics and collaboration in research and innovation

Abstract

This paper analyzes the association between geopolitical alignment and international research and innovation collaborations using data spanning 2000–2023. Using ideal point distance measures derived from UN General Assembly voting patterns, we find that increases in geopolitical distance are associated with reductions in international collaborations. A one-unit increase in geopolitical distance (roughly the distance between a median country pair) over three years is associated with a 3.1% reduction in collaborations in scientific publications (0.8% per standard deviation). We also find that this relationship is asymmetric: worsening geopolitical relations are associated with reductions in collaborations in scientific publications that are roughly three times larger than the gains associated with equivalent improvements, suggesting that international research partnerships are easier to damage than to build. At the technology level, critical technologies exhibit approximately three times the expected level of international collaboration compared to other fields (conditional on country-pair effects), yet are also more sensitive to shifts in geopolitical alignment, raising concerns about technology sovereignty. At the same time, despite ongoing geopolitical tensions, overall collaboration patterns have not undergone substantial changes in recent years, suggesting resilience in international research and innovation networks.