Turkey’s grand strategy as the third power: a realist proposal

Abstract

This article proposes a grand strategy for Turkey that is based on neorealist assumptions. While Turkey’s immediate neighbors, with the partial exception of Iran, do not pose a conventional, existential threat to Turkey in terms of their latent or military power, the “periphery” of Turkey’s immediate neighbors includes half a dozen regional powers that have the military or economic capacity to threaten Turkey’s neighbors or Turkey itself. Thus, Turkey should adopt a “neighborly core doctrine” to keep great powers’ military forces out of its immediate neighborhood and, if possible, should seek integration with its immediate neighbors through bilateral or multilateral economic, political and security initiatives. The urgency of this imperative is underlined by the fact that four of Turkey’s eight neighbors have been occupied by the great powers or their proxies since the end of the Cold War. Turkey’s position has to be that of the “third power”, buttressing the independence and territorial integrity of the countries in its neighborhood that are being partitioned and destroyed in proxy wars between the two major rival alliances. Among Turkey’s immediate neighbors, Bulgaria, Georgia and Syria are critical as Turkey’s gateways to the West, East and South, respectively. Turkey’s historically rooted and overwhelmingly amicable ties with more than a dozen countries across Eastern Europe, the Middle East, North Africa and South Asia are highlighted for their positive significance in this grand strategy.