Autocracies win the minds of the democratic public: how Japanese citizens are persuaded by illiberal narratives propagated by authoritarian regimes

Abstract

This study examines the persuasive effects of illiberal narratives on citizens in democratic countries in the context of increasing influence operations by authoritarian states, focusing on Japan as a case study. We compare the impact of illiberal narratives originating from China and Russia with that of mainstream narratives prevalent in democracies. Study 1 shows that whereas both narratives shift public opinion, illiberal narratives exert a stronger influence. Authoritarian tendencies, conspiracy beliefs, and political sophistication do not moderate these effects. By simulating two-sided exposure, Study 2 finds that despite narratives tending to cancel each other out, the effect of illiberal narratives persists, especially when introduced after mainstream narratives. These findings highlight a potential vulnerability in democratic societies such as Japan, where mainstream narratives may not adequately counteract illiberal influences.