Publication:
Electoral support and militants' targeting strategies

dc.contributor.coauthorAksoy, Deniz
dc.contributor.departmentDepartment of International Relations
dc.contributor.kuauthorCarlson, David George
dc.contributor.schoolcollegeinstituteCollege of Administrative Sciences and Economics
dc.date.accessioned2024-11-09T23:19:18Z
dc.date.issued2022
dc.description.abstractMilitant groups that are in armed conflict with a government often coexist with political parties that have ethnic or ideological connections to them. In this article, we explore the extent to which electoral support received by militant associated opposition parties and nationally incumbent political parties influences subnational variation in militant attacks. We argue, and empirically demonstrate, that militants strategically target localities where the levels of electoral support for the opposition party and the nationally incumbent party are close in an effort to negatively influence the electoral performance of the incumbent party. To illustrate this dynamic we examine subnational data from 1995 to 2015 Turkish legislative elections and attacks organized by the Kurdish militants within the same time period. We also examine the impact of June 2015 legislative elections on militant attacks until the snap elections in November 2015. Our empirical examination shows that militants target localities where electoral support for the governing party and Kurdish opposition party is close. Moreover, increase in violence negatively influences the electoral performance of the governing party. However, it does not consistently have a significant influence on the opposition. The findings illustrate that militants strategically choose the location of their attacks based on electoral dynamics, and attacks can pose an electoral challenge to the governing party.
dc.description.indexedbyWOS
dc.description.indexedbyScopus
dc.description.issue2
dc.description.openaccessNO
dc.description.publisherscopeInternational
dc.description.sponsoredbyTubitakEuN/A
dc.description.volume59
dc.identifier.doi10.1177/00223433211047719
dc.identifier.eissn1460-3578
dc.identifier.issn0022-3433
dc.identifier.quartileQ1
dc.identifier.scopus2-s2.0-85120486772
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1177/00223433211047719
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14288/10530
dc.identifier.wos727167100001
dc.keywordsElections
dc.keywordsMilitant attacks
dc.keywordsPolitical parties
dc.keywordsTurkish politics terrorist attacks
dc.keywordsViolence
dc.keywordsElections
dc.keywordsPolitics
dc.keywordsCounterterrorism
dc.keywordsCompetition
dc.keywordsConflict
dc.keywordsParties
dc.keywordsPeace
dc.language.isoeng
dc.publisherSage
dc.relation.ispartofJournal of Peace Research
dc.subjectInternational relations
dc.subjectPolitical science
dc.titleElectoral support and militants' targeting strategies
dc.typeJournal Article
dspace.entity.typePublication
local.contributor.kuauthorCarlson, David George
local.publication.orgunit1College of Administrative Sciences and Economics
local.publication.orgunit2Department of International Relations
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relation.isOrgUnitOfPublication.latestForDiscovery9fc25a77-75a8-48c0-8878-02d9b71a9126
relation.isParentOrgUnitOfPublication972aa199-81e2-499f-908e-6fa3deca434a
relation.isParentOrgUnitOfPublication.latestForDiscovery972aa199-81e2-499f-908e-6fa3deca434a

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