Publication:
Driver moderator method for retail sales prediction

dc.contributor.departmentDepartment of Business Administration
dc.contributor.kuauthorAli, Özden Gür
dc.contributor.schoolcollegeinstituteCollege of Administrative Sciences and Economics
dc.date.accessioned2024-11-09T22:51:24Z
dc.date.issued2013
dc.description.abstractWe introduce a new method for stock keeping unit (SKU)-store level sales prediction in the presence of promotions to support order quantity and promotion planning decisions for retail managers. The method leverages the marketing literature to generate features, and data mining techniques to train a model that provides accurate sales predictions for existing and new SKUs, as well as consistent, actionable insights into category, store and promotion dynamics. The proposed "Driver Moderator" method uses basic SKU-store information and historical sales and promotion data to generate many features. It simultaneously selects few relevant features and estimates their parameters by using an L1-norm regularized epsilon insensitive regression that is formulated to pool information across SKUs and stores. Evaluations on two grocery store databases from Turkey and the USA show that out-of-sample predictions for existing and new SKUs are as good as, or more accurate than benchmark methods. Using the method's predictions for inventory decisions doubles the inventory turn ratio versus using individual regressions by lowering lost sales and inventory levels at the same time.
dc.description.indexedbyWOS
dc.description.indexedbyScopus
dc.description.issue6
dc.description.openaccessNO
dc.description.publisherscopeInternational
dc.description.sponsoredbyTubitakEuN/A
dc.description.volume12
dc.identifier.doi10.1142/S0219622013500363
dc.identifier.eissn1793-6845
dc.identifier.issn0219-6220
dc.identifier.quartileQ2
dc.identifier.scopus2-s2.0-84890529017
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1142/S0219622013500363
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14288/6845
dc.identifier.wos329048600009
dc.keywordsRetailing
dc.keywordsPromotions
dc.keywordsForecasting
dc.keywordsData mining
dc.keywordsInsights
dc.keywordsOperations
dc.language.isoeng
dc.publisherWorld Scientific Publ Co Pte Ltd
dc.relation.ispartofInternational Journal of Information Technology and Decision Making
dc.subjectComputer science, artificial intelligence
dc.subjectComputer science, information systems
dc.subjectComputer science, interdisciplinary applications
dc.subjectOperations research
dc.subjectManagement science
dc.titleDriver moderator method for retail sales prediction
dc.typeJournal Article
dspace.entity.typePublication
local.contributor.kuauthorAli, Özden Gür
local.publication.orgunit1College of Administrative Sciences and Economics
local.publication.orgunit2Department of Business Administration
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