Publication:
What can we estimate from fatality and infectious case data using the Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) model? a case study of Covid-19 pandemic

dc.contributor.coauthorAhmetolan, Semra
dc.contributor.coauthorBilge, Ayşe Hümeyra
dc.contributor.coauthorDemirci, Ali
dc.contributor.coauthorPeker-Dobie, Ayşe
dc.contributor.departmentSchool of Medicine
dc.contributor.kuauthorErgönül, Önder
dc.contributor.schoolcollegeinstituteSCHOOL OF MEDICINE
dc.date.accessioned2024-11-09T12:30:00Z
dc.date.issued2020
dc.description.abstractThe rapidly spreading Covid-19 that affected almost all countries, was first reported at the end of 2019. As a consequence of its highly infectious nature, countries all over the world have imposed extremely strict measures to control its spread. Since the earliest stages of this major pandemic, academics have done a huge amount of research in order to understand the disease, develop medication, vaccines and tests, and model its spread. Among these studies, a great deal of effort has been invested in the estimation of epidemic parameters in the early stage, for the countries affected by Covid-19, hence to predict the course of the epidemic but the variability of the controls over the course of the epidemic complicated the modeling processes. In this article, the determination of the basic reproduction number, the mean duration of the infectious period, the estimation of the timing of the peak of the epidemic wave is discussed using early phase data. Daily case reports and daily fatalities for China, South Korea, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Iran, Turkey, the United Kingdom and the United States over the period January 22, 2020–April 18, 2020 are evaluated using the Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) model. For each country, the SIR models fitting cumulative infective case data within 5% error are analyzed. It is observed that the basic reproduction number and the mean duration of the infectious period can be estimated only in cases where the spread of the epidemic is over (for China and South Korea in the present case). Nevertheless, it is shown that the timing of the maximum and timings of the inflection points of the proportion of infected individuals can be robustly estimated from the normalized data. The validation of the estimates by comparing the predictions with actual data has shown that the predictions were realized for all countries except USA, as long as lock-down measures were retained.
dc.description.fulltextYES
dc.description.indexedbyWOS
dc.description.indexedbyScopus
dc.description.indexedbyPubMed
dc.description.openaccessYES
dc.description.publisherscopeInternational
dc.description.sponsoredbyTubitakEuN/A
dc.description.sponsorshipN/A
dc.description.versionPublisher version
dc.description.volume7
dc.identifier.doi10.3389/fmed.2020.556366
dc.identifier.eissn2296-858X
dc.identifier.embargoNO
dc.identifier.filenameinventorynoIR02431
dc.identifier.quartileQ2
dc.identifier.scopus2-s2.0-85091029096
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14288/1882
dc.identifier.wos572507000001
dc.keywordsCOVID-19
dc.keywordsEpidemiology
dc.keywordsMathematical models
dc.keywordsParameter estimation
dc.keywordsSIR model
dc.language.isoeng
dc.publisherFrontiers
dc.relation.grantnoNA
dc.relation.ispartofFrontiers in Medicine
dc.relation.urihttp://cdm21054.contentdm.oclc.org/cdm/ref/collection/IR/id/9068
dc.subjectMedicine
dc.subjectGeneral and internal medicine
dc.titleWhat can we estimate from fatality and infectious case data using the Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) model? a case study of Covid-19 pandemic
dc.typeJournal Article
dspace.entity.typePublication
local.contributor.kuauthorErgönül, Mehmet Önder
local.publication.orgunit1SCHOOL OF MEDICINE
local.publication.orgunit2School of Medicine
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