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    Characteristics and functions of predictive and directive memories and forecasts
    (Wiley, 2024) Department of Psychology; Ay, Demet; Gülgöz, Sami; Department of Psychology; College of Social Sciences and Humanities
    Earlier research focused on three functions of recollecting the past self, social, and directive functions, but few studies examined the characteristics of events serving these functions. Moreover, research has neglected the function of prediction, which refers to predicting the future by recollecting the past. The current study distinguished the predictive function from the directive function and aimed to characterize memories and future events serving different functions by employing function prompts as cues. In addition, the frequency of using function-cued memories for the other functions was measured. Results showed that predictive and directive function ratings of the predictive function cued events were significantly different. However, directive events served the predictive function as frequently as the directive function, indicating that the predictive function is a prerequisite for future planning conceptualized under the directive function. The results are indicative of a distinct predictive function and considerable overlap between functions of memories.
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    Understanding patterns of accumulation: improving forecast-based decisions via nudging
    (Springer, 2024) Boz-Yilmaz, Hatice Zulal; Department of Psychology; Gököz, Zeynep Ayşecan Boduroğlu; Department of Psychology; College of Social Sciences and Humanities
    In this study we investigated challenges associated with comprehension of graphical patterns of accumulation (Experiment 1) and how to improve accumulation-based reasoning via nudging (Experiment 2). On each trial participants were presented with two separate graphs, each depicting a linear, saturating, or exponential data trajectory. They were then asked to make a binary decision based on their forecasts of how these trends would evolve. Correct responses were associated with a focus on the rate of increase in graphs; incorrect responses were driven by prior knowledge and beliefs regarding the context and/or selective attention towards the early phases of the line trajectories. To encourage participants to think more critically and accurately about the presented data, in Experiment 2, participants completed a nudge phase: they either made a forecast about a near horizon or read particular values on the studied trajectories prior to making their decisions. Forecasting about how the studied trajectories would progress led to improvements in determining expected accumulation growth. Merely reading values on the existing trajectory did not lead to improvements in decision accuracy. We demonstrate that actively asking participants to make specific forecasts prior to making decisions based on the accumulation trajectories improves decision accuracy.