Researcher:
Kalemli Özcan, Şebnem

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Şebnem

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Kalemli Özcan

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Kalemli Özcan, Şebnem

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2012 - 20164

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Researcher Of Publications: search.filters.isAuthorOfPublication.1feeab63-43a3-4612-9ab7-eedc8987847b

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Now showing 1 - 4 of 4
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    Global banks and crisis transmission
    (Elsevier, 2013) Papaioannou, Elias; Perri, Fabrizio; Department of Economics; Kalemli Özcan, Şebnem; Other; Department of Economics; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; N/A
    We study the effect of financial integration (through banks) on the transmission of international business cycles. In a sample of 18/20 developed countries between 1978 and 2009 we find that, in periods without financial crises, increases in bilateral banking linkages are associated with more divergent output cycles. This relation is significantly weaker during financial turmoil periods, suggesting that financial crises induce co-movement among more financially integrated countries. We also show that countries with stronger, direct and indirect, financial ties to the U.S. experienced more synchronized cycles with the U.S. during the recent 2007-2009 crisis. We then interpret these findings using a simple general equilibrium model of international business cycles with banks and shocks to banking activity. The model suggests that the relation between integration and synchronization depends on the type of shocks hitting the world economy, and that shocks to global banks played an important role in triggering and spreading the 2007-2009 crisis.
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    Leverage across firms, banks, and countries
    (Elsevier, 2012) Sorensen, Bent; Yesiltas, Sevcan; Department of Economics; Kalemli Özcan, Şebnem; Other; Department of Economics; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; N/A
    We present new stylized facts on bank and firm leverage during the period 2000–2009 using internationally comparable micro level data from many countries. We document the following patterns: a) there was an increase in leverage for investment banks prior to the sub-prime crisis; b) there was no visible increase in leverage for the typical commercial bank and non-financial firm; c) off-balance-sheet items constitute a big fraction of assets, especially for large commercial banks in the US, whereas investment banks do not report these items; d) the leverage ratio is procyclical for investment banks and for large commercial banks in the US; e) banks in emerging markets with tighter bank regulation and stronger investor protection experienced significantly less deleveraging during the crisis. The results suggest that excessive risk taking before the crisis was not easily detectable because the risk involved the quality rather than the quantity of assets.
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    Capital flows and spillovers
    (MCGILL-QUEENS UNIV PR, 2016) N/A; Department of Economics; Kalemli Özcan, Şebnem; Other; Department of Economics; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; N/A
    This paper shows that debt flows have contractionary effects while equity flows have expansion- ary effects on emerging markets output. Such correlations can be driven by countercyclical debt flows and procyclical equity flows or debt flows leading to an appreciation and hurting exports and equity flows improving productivity of real economy broadly defined. To separate out the stories, we focus on business cycle frequencies and the effect of global risk appetite (VIX) in driving capital flows into emerging markets. A positive initial impact of debt flows on output is followed by a negative impact afterwards. Equity flows has a positive impact on output initially and thereafter. FDI inflows have a positive affect on output only with a two year lag and if this period coincides with increased global uncertainty, the effect on output reverses but total effect stays positive. This result holds also for equity flows, suggesting that during increased periods of uncertainty private investors leave emerging markets. Quantitative impacts are not big except the case of FDI flows.
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    Risk sharing through capital gains
    (Wiley, 2012) Ballı, Faruk; Sørensen, Bent E.; Department of Economics; Kalemli Özcan, Şebnem; Other; Department of Economics; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; N/A
    We estimate channels of international risk sharing between European Monetary Union (EMU), European Union, and other OECD countries, 19922007. We focus on risk sharing through savings, factor income flows, and capital gains. Risk sharing through factor income and capital gains was close to zero before 1999 but has increased since then. Risk sharing from capital gains, at about 6%, is higher than risk sharing from factor income flows for European Union countries and OECD countries. Risk sharing from factor income flows is higher for euro zone countries, at 14%, reflecting increased international asset and liability holdings in the euro area.