Researcher:
Çağlayan, Mustafa

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Researcher

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Mustafa

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Çağlayan

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Çağlayan, Mustafa

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1999 - 20003

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Researcher Of Publications: search.filters.isAuthorOfPublication.2c347126-caf7-46a9-a9bb-d4533ad1fc74

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Now showing 1 - 3 of 3
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    Persistence in international inflation rates
    (Univ North Carolina, 1999) Baum, CF; Barkoulas, JT; N/A; Çağlayan, Mustafa; Researcher; N/A; N/A
    We test for fractional dynamics in inflation rates based on the consumer price index (CPI) for 27 countries and inflation rates based on the wholesale price index (WPI) for 22 countries, The fractional differencing parameter is estimated using semiparametric and approximate maximum likelihood methods. Significant evidence of fractional dynamics with long-memory features is found in both CPI- and WPI-based inflation rates for industrial as well as developing countries. Implications of the findings are considered, and sources of long memory are hypothesized.
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    Uncertainty resolution and strategic trade policy in oligopolistic industries
    (Blackwell Publishing Ltd, 2000) N/A; N/A; Çağlayan, Mustafa; Researcher; N/A; N/A
    This paper investigates a government's choice of strategic trade policy when the domestic firm observes a private noisy signal about the stochastic market demand while in competition with a rival firm. The government chooses between quantity controls and subsidies to maximize profits of the domestic firm. Assuming that firms compete a la Cournot in a third country, it is shown that the optimal trade policy depends not only on demand uncertainty but also on the predictability of the true market demand by the firms.
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    Long memory or structural breaks: can either explain nonstationary real exchange rates under the current float?
    (Elsevier, 1999) Baum, Christopher F.; Barkoulas, John T.; N/A; Çağlayan, Mustafa; Researcher; N/A; N/A
    This paper considers two potential rationales for the apparent absence of mean reversion in real exchange rates in the post-Bretton Woods era. We allow for (i) fractional integration and (ii) a double mean shift in the real exchange rate process. These methods, applied to CPI-based rates for 17 countries and WPI-based rates for 12 countries, demonstrate that the unit-root hypothesis is robust against both fractional alternatives and structural breaks. This evidence suggests rejection of the doctrine of absolute long-run purchasing power parity during the post-Bretton Woods era.