Researcher: Tunalı, Fehmi İnsan
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Tunalı, Fehmi İnsan
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Publication Metadata only A comparative study of returns to education of urban men in Egypt, Iran, and Turkey(Routledge Journals, Taylor & Francis Ltd, 2009) Salehi-Isfahani, Djavad; Assaad, Ragui; Department of Economics; Tunalı, Fehmi İnsan; Faculty Member; Department of Economics; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; 105635This paper presents a comparative study of private returns to schooling of urban men in Egypt, Iran, and Turkey using similar survey data and a uniform methodology. We employ three surveys for each country that span nearly two decades, from the 1980s to 2006, and, to increase the comparability of the estimates across surveys, we focus on urban men 20-54 years old and in full time wage and salary employment. Our aim is to learn how the monetary signals of rewards that guide individual decisions to invest in education are shaped by the institutions of education and labor markets in these countries. Our estimates generally support the stylized facts of the institutions of education and labor markets in Middle Eastern countries. Their labor markets have been described as dominated by the public sector and therefore relatively inflexible, and their education systems as more focused on secondary and tertiary degrees than teaching practical and productive skills. Returns in all countries are increasing in years of schooling, which is contrary to the Mincer assumption of linear returns but consistent with overemphasis on secondary and tertiary degrees. Low returns to vocational training relative to general upper secondary, which have been observed in many developing countries, are observed in Egypt and Iran, but not Turkey. This pattern of returns across countries seems to correspond to how students are selected into vocational and general upper secondary tracks, which is an important part of the education institutions of these countries, and the fact that Turkey's economy is more open than the other two. Greater competitiveness in all three countries over time seems to have increased returns to university education and in few cases to vocational education, but not to general high school.Publication Metadata only Stratified partial likelihood estimation(Elsevier, 1999) Ridder, Gert; Department of Economics; Tunalı, Fehmi İnsan; Faculty Member; Department of Economics; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; 105635When multiple durations are generated by a single unit, they may be related in a way that is not fully captured by the regressors. The omitted unit-specific variables might vary over the durations, They might also be correlated with the variables in the regression component. We propose an estimator that responds to these concerns and develop a specification test for detecting unobserved unit-specific effects, Data from Malaysia reveal that concentration of child mortality in some families is imperfectly explained by observed explanatory variables, and that failure to control for unobserved heterogeneity seriously biases the parameter estimates.Publication Metadata only Agricultural transformation and the rural labor market in Turkey(Nova Science Publishers, Inc., 2011) İlkkaracan, Ipek; Department of Economics; Tunalı, Fehmi İnsan; Faculty Member; Department of Economics; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; 105635After five decades of transformation, the share taken by agriculture in total employment in Turkey had decreased from 85 percent in 1950 to 36 percent in 2000. Despite significant technological progress, total agricultural employment remained in the 8-9 million range during much of this period. The pace of transformation hastened upon implementation of the Agricultural Reform Implementation Project (ARIP) in 2001. This process placed some two million additional inhabitants in the "surplus labor" category as the share of agricultural employment fell to under 25 percent by the end of 2008. We rely on various data sources to trace the contours of this transformation and examine its manifestations in the rural labor market. Since the transformation burdens the urban labor market with the task of absorbing the surplus labor, we also review the changes that have taken place in urban areas to gauge the prospects. We tease out the demographic manifestations of the transformation by breaking the aggregates down by gender, age, and education. We find that the agricultural labor force is ageing at unprecedented rates as the young and women opt for nonparticipation. Women, who typically contribute to the small family farm as unpaid family labor, face the biggest challenges as the distinctions between the rural economy and the urban economy become blurred. Although there are signs that the rural economy took a more diverse form in the post-ARIP period, rural labor markets do not appear to hold much promise for the working-age population.Publication Metadata only Wage formation and recurrent unemployment(Elsevier Science Bv, 2002) Assaad, R; Department of Economics; Tunalı, Fehmi İnsan; Faculty Member; Department of Economics; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; 105635Cross-section data on noncontractual construction workers in Egypt reveal strong attachment to the sector despite demand instability. Also present are statistically significant wage differentials between construction trades. We hypothesize that employers are compensating their noncontractual workforce for recurrent unemployment so that they can guarantee a steady supply of qualified workers. We rely on a structural model and investigate the consequences of rationing, turnover, and unanticipated risk associated with randomness in employment and unemployment durations, Estimates reveal that employers provide substantial compensation for turnover risk. Single spell data prove to be insufficient for teasing out the separate influence of unanticipated risk.Publication Metadata only Anlysis of attrition patterns in the Turkish household labor force survey(Orta Doğu Teknik Üniversitesi / Middl East Technical Univesity, 2009) Department of Economics; Tunalı, Fehmi İnsan; Faculty Member; Department of Economics; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; 105635This article offers an econometric analysis of attrition patterns in the "New" Turkish Household Labor Force Survey which has been conducted since 2000. A key feature of the redesigned survey is the short panel component which is obtained from four visits to the same address over a period of 18 months. We exploit the information in 12 quarters of micro data collected over the period 2000-2002 and study household and individual level attrition within 3, 12 and 15 months of the initial interview. Attrition is a phenomenon which is attributed to demographic and economic factors, including conditions in the labor market. If attrition is systematically related to the labor force status of individuals, this could result in biases in labor market indicators. . Our empirical investigation indeed provides strong evidence that attrition takes this non-ignorable form. The survey protocol allows interviews with substitute households or individuals who arrive at the designated address after the initial round. This practice appears to reduce the distortive influence of attrition. / Bu makale 2000 yılından beri toplanmakta olan “Yeni” Hanehalkı İşgücü Anketindeki kayıpranma örüntülerinin ekonometrik analizini içermektedir. Yeniden kurgulanan anketin temel özelliği aynı adrese 18 aylık bir dönemde dört ziyaret içermesiyle oluşan kısa panel boyutudur. Çalışmada 2000-2002 arasında 12 çeyrekten derlenen mikro veriler kullanılarak, ilk görüşmeden sonraki 3, 12 ve 15 aylık dönemde hane ve birey düzeyinde kayıpranma incelenmektedir. Kayıpranma işgücü pazarında karşılaşılan durumlar da dahil olmak üzere, bir dizi demografik ve ekonomik faktöre bağlanan bir olgudur. Kayıpranmanın bireylerin işgücü durumuyla sistematik bir ilişkisi olması işgücü istatistiklerinde yanlılığına yol açabilir. Nitekim ampirik sorgulamamız göz ardı edilemez bir kayıpranmanın varlığına işaret etmektedir. Anket protokolu adrese ilk ziyaretten sonra gelen hanehalkı ve bireylerle görüşme yapılmasına izin vermektedir. Bulgularımız bu uygulamanın kayıpranmanın yol açtığı yanlılığı bir miktar giderdiğine ilişkin ipuçları içermektedir.Publication Metadata only Cox regression with alternative concepts of waiting time: the new orleans yellow fever epidemic of 1853(John Wiley & Sons Ltd, 1997) Pritchett, JB; Department of Economics; Tunalı, Fehmi İnsan; Faculty Member; Department of Economics; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; 105635Event data can often be analysed using different concepts of waiting time. Our application offers three choices: calendar-time, age, and duration of residence in New Orleans. We exploit the semi-parametric features of Cox regression and estimate parallel specifications in which mortality risk is treated as an arbitrary function of one of the three alternative time measures, while the remaining two enter the hazard parametrically. Comparisons of the parameter estimates with the corresponding estimates of the baseline hazards form the crux of a simple specification checking procedure. In our formal treatment we rely on Aalen's Multiplicative Intensity formulation and tackle complications such as left-truncation, functional form specification, and choice-based sampling.Publication Metadata only Down and up the “U” – A synthetic cohort (panel) analysis of female labor force participation in Turkey, 1988–2013(Pergamon-Elsevier Science Ltd, 2021) Kırdar, Murat G.; Dayıoğlu, Meltem; Department of Economics; Tunalı, Fehmi İnsan; Faculty Member; Department of Economics; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; 105635We study the aggregate labor force participation behavior of women over a 25-year period in Turkey using a synthetic panel approach. In our decomposition of age, year, and cohort effects, we use three APC models that have received close scrutiny of the demography community. The exercise is repeated by rural/urban status and by education to tease out some key differences in behavior. Our comparative methodology yields remarkably consistent profiles for most subsamples, but not all. Notably all methods reveal an M-shaped age profile attributable to child-bearing related interruptions in rural areas and for low-educated women in urban areas. We also find that younger cohorts among the least-educated women are more likely to participate, contrary to the belief that culture stands in the way. The evidence we compiled confirms that Turkey has reached the turning point of the U-shaped pattern in female labor force participation observed in countries where agriculture initially accounts for a large fraction of employment. We dwell on methodological issues throughout the paper and seek explanations for the occasional fragility of the methods. We establish that evolution of the linear trend present in the cross-section age profiles is responsible for the differences in the findings. Despite the apparent inconsistency, the models we use are consistent in recovering the turning points of the age, period, and cohort profiles.Publication Metadata only Rationality of migration(Univ Penn, 2000) Department of Economics; Tunalı, Fehmi İnsan; Faculty Member; Department of Economics; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; 105635The paradigm of a rational individual acting on the earnings-enhancing benefits of migration is subjected to statistical scrutiny, using data from Turkey. Results with robust selectivity correction support the rationality hypothesis: Both migrants and nonmigrants chose the option in which they had comparative advantage. However, the estimated gain from moving is negative for a substantial portion of migrants, whereas a minority realize very high returns. This suggests that migration is a lottery: Individuals are willing to invest in a proposition that has a high probability of yielding negative returns because of the potential for a very large payoff.Publication Metadata only Female labor supply in Turkey(Routledge, 2006) Başlevent, Cem; Department of Economics; Tunalı, Fehmi İnsan; Faculty Member; Department of Economics; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; 105635N/APublication Metadata only Strangers' disease - determinants of yellow-fever mortality during the New Orleans epidemic of 1853(Elsevier, 1995) Pritchett, Jonathan B; Department of Economics; Tunalı, Fehmi İnsan; Faculty Member; Department of Economics; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; 105635During the summer of 1853, New Orleans experienced one of the worst epidemics in the history of the United States. Immigrants accounted for a vast majority of the deaths. In this paper, we analyze differential mortality risk from yellow fever using microdata from interment records. Using a legit model, we sort out the influence of demographic and socioeconomic factors on mortality risk. We establish that the strong relationship between nativity and yellow fever mortality disappears once we control for poverty. status and immunization as measured by duration of residence in New Orleans. (C) 1995 Academic Press, Inc.