Researcher: Demirci, Murat
Name Variants
Demirci, Murat
Email Address
Birth Date
8 results
Search Results
Now showing 1 - 8 of 8
Publication Metadata only Post-compulsory schooling of youth in Turkey: a case of pro-cyclical enrollment(Emerald Publishing, 2024) Poyraz, Meltem; Department of Economics; Department of Economics; Demirci, Murat; College of Administrative Sciences and EconomicsPurposeThis study investigates the effect of business cycles on school enrollment in Turkey. During recessions, school enrollment might increase as opportunity cost of schooling declines, yet it might also decrease because of reduced income households have for education. Which effect dominates depends on the context. We empirically explore this in a context displaying canonical features of developing countries.Design/methodology/approachUsing the Turkish Household Labor Force Survey data for a period covering the Great Recession, we estimate the effect of unemployment rate separately for enrollments in general and vocational high schools and in undergraduate programs. To understand the cyclicality, we use a probit model with the regional and time variations in unemployment rates. We also build a simple theoretical model of work-schooling choice to interpret the findings.FindingsWe find that the likelihood of enrolling in general high schools and undergraduate programs declines with higher adult unemployment rates, but the likelihood of enrollment in vocational high schools increases. Confronting these empirical findings with the theoretical model suggests that the major factor in enrollment cyclicality in Turkey is how parental resources allocated to education change during recessions by schooling type.Originality/valueOur finding of pro-cyclical enrollment in academically oriented programs is in contrast with counter-cyclicality documented for similar programs in developed countries, which highlights the importance of income related factors in developing-country contexts. Our heterogeneous findings for general and vocational high schools are also novel.Publication Metadata only International students and labour marketoutcomes of US-born workers(Wiley, 2020) Department of Economics; Department of Economics; Demirci, Murat; Faculty Member; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; 272082Do international students graduating from US colleges and universities affect labour market outcomes of similarly educated native-born workers? I address this question by exploiting a change in US visa policy that results in increases in the labour supply of master's-level international students to the US labour market in science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) fields. Estimates show that increases in their labour supply via temporary work permits in a certain field reduce employment of recently graduated native-born holders of a master's degree but increase earnings of experienced native-born holders of a master's degree in the same field. These findings support the hypothesis of substitution between skills of similarly educated immigrants and native-born individuals in the same age group and complementarity between skills of those in different age groups. Resume etudiants internationaux et debouches sur le marche du travail pour les citoyens nes aux etats-Unis. A diplome egal, les etudiants internationaux sortant des universites et colleges americains ont-ils un impact sur les debouches des travailleurs nes dans le pays sur le marche de l'emploi? Je pose cette question en exploitant les changements en matiere de politique de visas aux etats-Unis ayant eu pour consequence une augmentation du nombre d'etudiants qui detient une maitrise sur le marche du travail americain, notamment dans les secteurs des sciences, des technologies, de l'ingenierie et des mathematiques (STIM). Dans certains secteurs, les evaluations montrent que l'augmentation de la main d'oeuvre decoulant de l'octroi de permis de travail temporaires a engendre une reduction du nombre d'emplois devolus aux detenteurs d'une maitrise fraichement diplomes et nes dans le pays, tout en permettant aux plus competents d'entre eux d'augmenter leurs revenus. Ces constatations soutiennent l'hypothese d'une substitution entre les competences des immigrants et celles des natifs a diplome egal pour un meme groupe d'age, et d'une complementarite differents groupes d'age.Publication Metadata only Education abroad and post-graduation location choices: an inquiry on Turkish Republic citizens studying in the United States of America(Zonguldak Bülent Ecevit Üniversitesi, 2020) Department of Economics; Department of Economics; Demirci, Murat; Faculty Member; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; 272082This study analyzes education and post-graduation residency choices of students who go abroad from Turkey to pursue higher education. It has been found that most students have chosen to study in countries where the university system is advanced and the quality of academic publishing is better than Turkey. The analysis of students who have taken education in the United States as the most commonly preferred country has shown that the majority of students has attended in the master’s- and doctoral-level programs. In addition, it has been observed that Turkish citizens studying at the bachelor’s, master’s, and doctorate levels in the United States were more likely to study in technical fields, such as engineering and computing, compared to university students of the same level in Turkey. It has been also found that a nonnegligible ratio of Turkish students in the United States, such as 21 percent, has enrolled in universities that are considered among the best 100 universities in the world. Although the abundance of Turkish students studying abroad in prominent universities seems to be a richness for Turkey, whether this richness benefits the Turkish economy depends on the rate at which these students return to Turkey after their graduation. To understand the return rate, whether the initial residency choice was the United States or not has been analyzed for all Turkish graduates of American universities who started their studies in the 2005-2015 period. It has been found that most of these students, such as 70 percent of master’s and doctoral degree holders, have continued to stay initially in the United States. Lastly, the longterm residency choices of students who graduated from three American universities have been analyzed, and it has been found that the ratio of them who returned to Turkey 10 years after their graduation has stayed at a low level of 40 percent. / Öz: Makalemizde Türkiye’den yurt dışına üniversite eğitimi almak için giden öğrencilerin eğitim ve mezuniyet sonrası yerleşim tercihleri incelenmiştir. Türkiye’den yurt dışına çıkan uluslararası öğrencilerin ülke tercihlerini incelemek için UNESCO (Birleşmiş Milletler Eğitim, Bilim ve Kültür Örgütü) verisi kullanılmıştır. Öğrencilerin çoğunluğunun üniversite sistemleri gelişmiş ve akademik yayın kalitesi Türkiye’den daha iyi olan ülkeleri tercih ettiği saptanmıştır. En çok tercih edilen ülke olan Amerika Birleşik Devletleri’nde eğitim alan öğrenciler incelendiğinde ise çoğunluğun yüksek lisans ve doktora seviyesinde eğitim aldığı görülmüştür. Ayrıca, Amerikan üniversitelerinde eğitim alan lisans, yüksek lisans ve doktora öğrencilerinin Türkiye’de benzer seviye eğitim alan üniversite öğrencilerine kıyasla daha yüksek bir oranının mühendislik ve bilişim gibi teknik alanlarda eğitim almayı tercih ettiği gözlemlenmiştir. Türkiye’den Amerikan üniversitelerine eğitim almaya giden öğrencilerin %21 gibi azımsanmayacak bir oranının dünyanın en iyi 100 üniversitesi arasında kabul edilen kurumlarda eğitim aldıkları bulunmuştur. Her ne kadar yurt dışındaki kaliteli kurumlarda eğitim alan Türkiye Cumhuriyeti (T.C.) vatandaşlarının fazlalığı bir zenginlik olarak düşünülse de bu zenginliğin Türkiye ekonomisi için katkıya dönüşmesi bu öğrencilerin Türkiye’ye geri dönme oranına bağlıdır. Geri dönme oranını anlamak için Amerikan üniversitelerinde 2005-2015 yılları arasında eğitim almaya başlayıp mezun olan bütün T.C. vatandaşlarının ilk yerleşim tercihinin Amerika Birleşik Devletleri olup olmadığı incelenmiştir. Öğrencilerin büyük çoğunluğunun, örneğin yüksek lisans ve doktora programı mezunlarının %70’i gibi, mezuniyetten sonra Amerika’da kalmaya devam ettiği görülmüştür. Son olarak, üç farklı Amerikan üniversitesinden mezun olan öğrencilerin daha uzun dönemli yerleşim tercihleri analiz edilmiş ve mezuniyetten 10 yıl sonra Türkiye’ye dönenlerin oranının %40 gibi düşük bir seviyede kaldığı gözlemlenmiştir.Publication Metadata only The labor market integration of Syrian refugees in Turkey(Elsevier Ltd, 2023) Kırdar M.G.; Department of Economics; Department of Economics; Demirci, Murat; Faculty Member; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; 272082Although Turkey hosts the largest population of refugees globally, we know little about their labor-market outcomes at the national level. This study uses the 2018 round of the Turkey Demographic and Health Survey, which includes a representative sample of Syrian refugees for the first time, to examine refugee labor-market integration. The findings show a much smaller native–refugee gap in men's employment in Turkey (favoring natives) than that reported for most developed countries. Moreover, the employment rate for refugee men peaks quite early, one year after arrival, and remains at the same level. By contrast, the employment rate for refugee women is initially lower and does not change much over time. Once demographic and educational differences are accounted for, the native–refugee gap in men's (women's) paid employment falls to 4.7 (4.0) percentage points (pp). These small gaps conceal the fact that formal-employment rates are much lower among refugees. Even when covariate differences are accounted for, the formal-employment rate for refugee men is 58 pp lower than the rate for native men. In addition, the smallest native–refugee employment gaps are in manufacturing for men and agriculture for women. The gap is also much smaller in wage employment than in self-employment or unpaid family work. Finally, significant heterogeneity exists across refugee groups. The native–refugee employment gap is wider for older and more-educated groups. Once covariates are accounted for, the gap in men's employment vanishes for refugees whose mother tongue is Turkish but persists for refugees whose mother tongue is Arabic or Kurdish. © 2022 Elsevier LtdPublication Metadata only Development level of hosting areas and the impact of refugees on natives? labor market outcomes in Turkey*(Elsevier, 2022) Araci, Dogu Tan; Kirdar, Murat Gueray; Department of Economics; Department of Economics; Demirci, Murat; Faculty Member; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; 272082We examine how the impact of refugees on natives' labor market outcomes varies by the development level of hosting areas, which has important implications for the optimal allocation of refugees across regions and countries. For this purpose, in the context of the largest refugee group in the world in a single country, Syrian refugees in Turkey, we exploit the significant variation in the development level across regions of Turkey, several of which host a substantial number of refugees. We find that the impact of refugees on natives' labor market outcomes becomes significantly less adverse as the regional development level rises. For instance, the adverse effects of the refugee shock on women's employment and labor force participation observed at the mean level of development vanish at high levels of development. Moreover, while the refugee impact on men's employment is negative for the least developed regions, it is positive for highly developed regions. Our findings imply that developed regions and countries are better positioned to protect their local population from the short-term adverse effects of refugees in the labor market.Publication Open Access Transition of international science, technology, engineering, and mathematics students to the US labor market: the role of visa policy(Wiley, 2019) Department of Economics; Department of Economics; Demirci, Murat; Faculty Member; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; 272082I analyze how visa policies affect international students' transition to the U.S. labor market. The Optional Practical Training (OPT) program permits international students to work via a student visa for a limited period after graduation before obtaining a work visa-an uncertain process due to the binding visa cap. I find that the extension in the length of OPT terms for students in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) increases their likelihood of initially staying in the United States and using OPT. This result suggests that uncertainties about obtaining work visas hinder international STEM students' participation in the U.S. labor market. (JEL J61, K37, I23).Publication Open Access Transition of international science, technology, engineering, and mathematics students to the U.S. labor market: the role of visa policy(Wiley, 2019) Department of Economics; Department of Economics; Demirci, Murat; Faculty Member; College of Administrative Sciences and EconomicsI analyze how visa policies affect international students' transition to the U.S. labor market. The Optional Practical Training (OPT) program permits international students to work via a student visa for a limited period after graduation before obtaining a work visa—an uncertain process due to the binding visa cap. I find that the extension in the length of OPT terms for students in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) increases their likelihood of initially staying in the United States and using OPT. This result suggests that uncertainties about obtaining work visas hinder international STEM students' participation in the U.S. labor market. (JEL J61, K37, I23).Publication Open Access A practitioner’s guide to handling irregularities resulting from the 2014 revisions of the Turkish Household Labor Force Survey(Boğaziçi Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi, 2021) Poyraz, Meltem; Department of Economics; Department of Economics; Demirci, Murat; Faculty Member; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; 272082We document the implications of the 2014 revisions to the Turkish Household Labor Force Survey and offer guidance on how to handle the irregularities in population and unemployment statistics that resulted from two particular revisions. First, new population projections were adopted to assign survey weights. Second, a narrower definition of unemployment was adopted. We propose methods to adjust the survey weights for the pre-2014 period in order to discern changes in population statistics by age groups and regions without interruption over time and to calculate the unemployment rates according to both broader and narrower definitions since 2004. / Bu çalışmada TÜİK Hanehalkı İşgücü Anketi’ninde 2014 yılında yapılan düzenlemelerden kaynaklanan bazı sonuçları bulguluyor, nüfus ve işsizlik istatistiklerinde yapılan revizyonların özellikle ikisinden kaynaklanan sorunların nasıl ele alınması gerektiği hakkında yol gösteriyoruz. İlk revizyon, anket ağırlıklarının dayandırıldığı yeni nüfus projeksiyonlarının kabul edilmesidir. İkincisi ise, dar tanımlı bir işsizlik tanımına geçilmesidir. Bu çalışmada 2014 öncesindeki anket ağırlıklarını nüfus istatistiklerinde yaş bazında ve bölgesel olarak kopma olmayacak şekilde yeniden ayarlamak ve işsizlik oranlarını geniş ve dar tanımlı olarak 2004 yılından itibaren hesaplamak için yöntemler öneriyoruz.