Researcher: Yıldırım, Muhammed Ali
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Publication Metadata only Production ability and economic growth(Elsevier, 2022) Bustos, Sebastian; Department of Economics; Yıldırım, Muhammed Ali; Faculty Member; Department of Economics; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; 219280Cities and countries undergo constant structural transformation. Industries need many inputs, such as regulations, infrastructure or productive knowledge, which we call capabilities. and locations are successful in hosting industries insofar as the capabilities that they can provide. We propose a capabilities-based production model and an empirical strategy to measure the Sophistication of a product and the Production Ability of a location. We apply our framework to international trade data and employment data in the United States, recovering measures of Production Ability for countries and cities, and the Sophistication of products and industries. We show that both country- and city-level measures have a strong correlation with income and economic growth at different time horizons. Product Sophistication is positively correlated with indicators of human capital and wages. Our model-based estimations predict product appearances and disappearances through the extensive margin.Publication Open Access Egypt’s manufacturing sector: seizing on an advantageous product space position(The Lebanese Center for Policy Studies, 2017) Bustos, Sebastian; Department of Economics; Yıldırım, Muhammed Ali; Faculty Member; Department of Economics; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; 219280This policy report on Egypt’s industrial sector is the third in a series of reports aimed at identifying strategic options Arab countries have in undertaking structural transformation. Using the product space methodology, this report analyzes existing capabilities of selected economies by identifying products they currently export and determining which path they should follow to produce more sophisticated and strategic products. A study of Egypt’s product space reveals the country should develop the machinery and chemicals & allied industry since they would increase the country’s product complexity index. To meet this specific goal and to enhance production in other sectors, Egypt should focus on providing support and public inputs—such as infrastructure and regulation—to existing industries with the aim of improving their productivity and ability to jump to nearby opportunities.Publication Open Access Tunisia’s manufacturing sector: machinery, electronics, and chemical sector potential(2017) Bustos, Sebastian; Department of Economics; Yıldırım, Muhammed Ali; Faculty Member; Department of Economics; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; 219280This policy report on Tunisia’s industrial sector is the tenth in a series of reports aimed at identifying strategic options Arab countries have in undertaking structural transformation. Using the product space methodology, this report analyzes existing capabilities of selected economies by identifying products they currently export and determining which path they should follow to produce more sophisticated and strategic products. A study of Tunisia’s product space reveals that the country should focus on facilitating the development of new complex products, particularly in the machinery/electrical clusters and a few products in the chemical and plastic rubber communities that are most attractive in terms of the tradeoff between distance and complexity. These findings call for what is termed parsimonious industrial policy or industrial policy ‘in the small’, entailing providing support and public inputs (such as infrastructure, regulation, etc.) to existing industries with the aim of improving their productivity and ability to jump to the nearby opportunities.Publication Open Access UAE’s manufacturing sector: small industry, significant potential(The Lebanese Center for Policy Studies, 2017) Bustos, Sebastian; Department of Economics; Yıldırım, Muhammed Ali; Faculty Member; Department of Economics; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; 219280This policy report on the United Arab Emirates’ (UAE) industrial sector is the sixth in a series of reports aimed at identifying strategic options Arab countries have in undertaking structural transformation. Using the product space methodology, this report analyzes existing capabilities of selected economies by identifying products they currently export and determining which path they should follow to produce more sophisticated and strategic products. A study of the UAE’s product space reveals the country’s future path for development should focus on new opportunities in the chemical and foodstuff clusters. This reports calls for what is termed parsimonious industrial policy or industrial policy ‘in the small’, entailing a focus on providing support and public inputs (such as infrastructure, regulation, etc.) to existing industries with the aim of improving their productivity and ability to jump to nearby opportunities.Publication Open Access Arab country product space report introduction and methodology(The Lebanese Center for Policy Studies, 2017) Bustos, Sebastian; Department of Economics; Yıldırım, Muhammed Ali; Faculty Member; Department of Economics; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; 219280During the decades prior to the Arab spring, Arab countries on average had one of the lowest per capita growth rates compared to other parts of the world. Although countries in the region registered higher growth rates at the beginning of the century, this economic growth did not bring about a structural transformation required to diversify Arab economies. The challenge remains not only in how to ensure these economies grow but also to ensure that growth is inclusive and sustainable. The general objective of the report is to lay out the strategic options Arab countries have in undertaking structural transformation. Using the product space methodology, the existing capabilities of selected economies are analyzed by locating products they currently export, which assists in determining which path they should follow to produce more sophisticated and strategic products.Publication Open Access Saudi Arabia’s manufacturing sector: looking beyond petroleum(The Lebanese Center for Policy Studies, 2017) Bustos, Sebastian; Department of Economics; Yıldırım, Muhammed Ali; Faculty Member; Department of Economics; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; 219280This policy report on Saudi Arabia’s industrial sector is the fourth in a series of reports aimed at identifying strategic options Arab countries have in undertaking structural transformation. Using the product space methodology, this report analyzes existing capabilities of selected economies by identifying products they currently export and determining which path they should follow to produce more sophisticated and strategic products. A study of Saudi Arabia’s product space reveals that the kingdom’s development path should focus on new complex products in the machinery/electrical clusters and a few products in the chemical community. In Saudi Arabia, enhancing production possibilities around existing industries will likely not produce leaps that are desired, meaning it will likely be necessary to place strategic bets or adopt industrial policy ‘in the large’ to ease the transition into new and more complex industries.Publication Open Access Role of institutional, cultural, and economic factors on the effectiveness of the lockdown measures(Elsevier, 2022) Department of Economics; Çakmaklı, Cem; Demiralp, Selva; Ergönül, Önder; Yeşiltaş, Sevcan; Yıldırım, Muhammed Ali; Faculty Member; Faculty Member; Faculty Member; Faculty Member; Faculty Member; Department of Economics; School of Medicine; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; 107818; 42533; 110398; N/A; 219280Objective: this study considered the role of institutional, cultural and economic factors in the effectivemess of lockdown measures during the coronavirus pandemic. Earlier studies focusing on cross-sectional data found an association between low case numbers and a higher level of cultural tightness. Meanwhile, institutional strength and income levels revealed a puzzling negative relationship with the number of cases and deaths. Methods: data available at the end of September 2021 were used to analyse the dynamic impact of these factors on the effectiveness of lockdowns. The cross-sectional dimension of country-level data was combined with the time-series dimension of pandemic-related measures, using econometric techniques dealing with panel data. Findings: greater stringency of lockdown measures was associated with fewer cases. Institutional strength enhanced this negative relationship. Countries with well-defined and established laws performed better for a given set of lockdown measures compared with countries with weaker institutional structures. Cultural tightness reduced the effectiveness of lockdowns, in contrast to previous findings at cross-sectional level. Conclusion: institutional strength plays a greater role than cultural and economic factors in enhancing the performance of lockdowns. These results underline the importance of strengthening institutions for pandemic control.Publication Open Access Iraq’s manufacturing sector: a challenging path to more products(The Lebanese Center for Policy Studies (LCPS), 2017) Bustos, Sebastian; Department of Economics; Yıldırım, Muhammed Ali; Faculty Member; Department of Economics; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; 219280This policy report on Iraq’s industrial sector is the seventh in a series of reports aimed at identifying strategic options Arab countries have in undertaking structural transformation. Using the product space methodology, this report analyzes existing capabilities of selected economies by identifying products they currently export and determining which path they should follow to produce more sophisticated and strategic products. A study of Iraq’s product space reveals that given its limited diversification and strong dependence on oil, the country’s future path for development should focus on new opportunities in the foodstuff and chemical clusters. To meet this goal, industrial policy should focus on selecting a number of new industries or products at which to target public inputs in order to provide temporary public support that will attract and facilitate private investment in new products.Publication Open Access Kuwait’s manufacturing sector: targeting new industries(The Lebanese Center for Policy Studies (LCPS), 2017) Bustos, Sebastian; Department of Economics; Yıldırım, Muhammed Ali; Faculty Member; Department of Economics; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; 219280This policy report on Kuwait’s industrial sector is the fifth in a series of reports aimed at identifying strategic options Arab countries have in undertaking structural transformation. Using the product space methodology, this report analyzes existing capabilities of selected economies by identifying products they currently export and determining which path they should follow to produce more sophisticated and strategic products. Kuwait’s position in the product space suggests that the country’s future path for development should focus on new opportunities in the chemical, plastics, foodstuff, and machinery-electrical clusters. While products in the foodstuff cluster are closer in distance in terms of productive knowledge and capabilities of the country, Kuwait should focus on the chemicals & allied industry since they have a higher Product Complexity Index. Nevertheless, all target products are relatively far away when considering their distance from Kuwait’s product space. In such cases, enhancing production possibilities around existing industries will not produce desired leaps, meaning industrial policy should focus on selecting a number of new industries or products at which to target public inputs.Publication Open Access Algeria’s manufacturing sector: few avenues to diversification(The Lebanese Center for Policy Studies, 2017) Bustos, Sebastian; Department of Economics; Yıldırım, Muhammed Ali; Faculty Member; Department of Economics; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; 219280This policy report on Algeria’s industrial sector is the eighth in a series of reports aimed at identifying strategic options Arab countries have in undertaking structural transformation. Using the product space methodology, this report analyzes existing capabilities of selected economies by identifying products they currently export and determining which path they should follow to produce more sophisticated and strategic products. Algeria’s position in the product space suggests that the country’s future path for development should focus on new opportunities in the chemical and food clusters. Redeploying productive knowledge that already exists within the country into other more complex products would prove difficult but the current position implies that, unaided, the economy is unlikely to diversify. This suggests the need to adopt proactive industrial policies entailing a number of new industries or products at which to target public inputs.