Researcher:
Crossley, Thomas Fraser

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Thomas Fraser

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Crossley

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Crossley, Thomas Fraser

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2013 - 20145

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Researcher Of Publications: search.filters.isAuthorOfPublication.9b4df760-ed9f-4260-b2bc-38d95199a87a

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    Household consumption through recent recessions
    (Wiley, 2013) Low, Hamish; O'Dea, Cormac; Department of Economics; Crossley, Thomas Fraser; Faculty Member; Department of Economics; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; N/A
    This paper examines trends in household consumption and saving behaviour in each of the last three recessions in the UK. The Great Recession' has been different from those that occurred in the 1980s and 1990s. It has been both deeper and longer, but also the composition of the cutbacks in consumption expenditures differs, with a greater reliance on cuts to nondurable expenditure than was seen in previous recessions, and the distributional pattern across individuals differs. The young have cut back expenditure more than the old, as have mortgage holders compared with renters. By contrast, the impact of the recession has been similar across education groups. We present evidence that suggests that two aspects of fiscal policy in the UK in 2008 and 2009 - the temporary reduction in the rate of VAT and a car scrappage scheme - had some success in encouraging households to increase durable purchases.
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    Is there a 'heat-or-eat' trade-off in the Uk?
    (Wiley, 2014) Beatty, Timothy K. M.; Blow, Laura; Crossley, Thomas F.; Department of Economics; Crossley, Thomas Fraser; Faculty Member; Department of Economics; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; N/A
    Do households cut back on food spending to finance the additional cost of keeping warm during spells of unseasonably cold weather? For households which cannot smooth consumption over time, we describe how cold weather shocks are equivalent to income shocks. We merge detailed household level expenditure data from older households with historical regional weather information. We find evidence that the poorest of older households cannot smooth fuel spending over the worst temperature shocks. Statistically significant reductions in food spending occur in response to winter temperatures 2 or more standard deviations colder than expected, which occur about 1 winter month in 40; reductions in food expenditure are considerably larger in poorer households.
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    Financial crisis wealth losses and responses among older households in England
    (Wiley-Blackwell, 2013) Banks, James; Crawford, Rowena; Emmerson, Carl; Department of Economics; Crossley, Thomas Fraser; Faculty Member; Department of Economics; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; N/A
    Prices of real and financial assets fell substantially in the UK during 2008-09. The fourth wave of the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA) was in the field throughout this financial crisis'. We use these data, and earlier ELSA waves, to document the effect of the crisis on those aged 50 and over in England, importantly taking into account that a significant proportion of the wealth of these households is held in forms such as state pensions that will not be directly affected by movements in asset prices. We find that the median fall in wealth among individuals was 8 per cent of total household gross wealth with, on average, richer individuals having experienced a larger decline. We find some evidence that those who experienced greater wealth shocks were more likely to reduce their expected chance of leaving a large bequest and to reduce their spending on certain semi-luxury' items such as clothing and food consumed out of the home.
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    PublicationOpen Access
    Job loss, credit constraints, and consumption growth
    (Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Press, 2014) Low, Hamish W.; Department of Economics; Crossley, Thomas Fraser; Faculty Member; Department of Economics; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics
    We use direct evidence on credit constraints to study their importance for household consumption growth and for welfare. We distentangle the direct effect on consumption growth of a currently binding credit constraint from the indirect effect of a potentially binding credit constraint that generates consumption risk. Our data are focused on job losers. We find that less than 5% of job losers experience a binding credit constraint, but those who do experience significant welfare losses, and consumption growth is 24% higher than for the rest of the population. However, even among those who are unconstrained and are able to borrow if needed, consumption responds to transitory income.
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    PublicationOpen Access
    Pension benefit insurance and pension plan portfolio choice
    (Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Press, 2013) Jametti, Mario; Department of Economics; Crossley, Thomas Fraser; Faculty Member; Department of Economics; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics
    Pension benefit guarantees have been introduced in several countries to protect private plan members from the loss of income associated with the termination of an underfunded plan. Most such schemes face financial difficulty. Consequently, policy reforms are being contemplated. Economic theory suggests that such schemes will suffer moral hazard problems. We test a specific theoretical prediction: insured plans will invest more heavily in risky assets. Our test exploits policy differences across Canadian jurisdictions. We find that insured plans invest about 5% more in equities than do similar plans without benefit guarantees.