Researcher:
Ustaoğlu, Eda

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Eda

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Ustaoğlu

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Ustaoğlu, Eda

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20212

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Researcher Of Publications: search.filters.isAuthorOfPublication.ba0fb3a5-7f4f-4527-9260-5ff73be8bf2a

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    PublicationOpen Access
    The estimation of non-irrigated crop area and production using the regression analysis approach: a case study of Bursa Region (Turkey) in the mid-nineteenth century
    (Public Library of Science, 2021) Department of History; Kabadayı, Mustafa Erdem; Ustaoğlu, Eda; Gerrits, Petrus Johannes; Faculty Member; Department of History; College of Social Sciences and Humanities; 33267; N/A; N/A
    Agricultural land cover and its changing extent are directly related to human activities, which have an adverse impact on the environment and ecosystems. The historical knowledge of crop production and its cultivation area is a key element. Such data provide a base for monitoring and mapping spatio-temporal changes in agricultural land cover/use, which is of great significance to examine its impacts on environmental systems. Historical maps and related data obtained from historical archives can be effectively used for reconstruction purposes through using sample data from ground observations, government inventories, or other historical sources. This study considered historical population and cropland survey data obtained from Ottoman Archives and cropland suitability map, accessibility, and geophysical attributes as ancillary data to estimate non-irrigated crop production and its corresponding cultivation area in the 1840s Bursa Region, Turkey. We used the regression analysis approach to estimate agricultural land area and grain production for the unknown data points in the study region. We provide the spatial distribution of production and its cultivation area based on the estimates of regression models. The reconstruction can be used in line with future historical research aiming to model landscape, climate, and ecosystems to assess the impact of human activities on the environmental systems in preindustrial times in the Bursa Region context.
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    PublicationOpen Access
    Reconstruction of residential land cover and spatial analysis of population in Bursa Region (Turkey) in the mid-nineteenth century
    (Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute (MDPI), 2021) Department of History; Kabadayı, Mustafa Erdem; Ustaoğlu, Eda; Faculty Member; Department of History; College of Social Sciences and Humanities; 33267; N/A
    The historic reconstruction of residential land cover is of significance to uncover the hu-man-environment relationship and its changing dynamics. Taking into account the historical census data and cadastral maps of seven villages, this study generated residential land cover maps for the Bursa Region in the 1850s using a model based on natural constraints, land zoning, socio-economic factors and residential suitability. Two different historical reconstructions were generated; one based on a high density residential model and another based on a low density model. The simulated landcover information was used as an ancillary data to redistribute aggregated census counts to fine scale raster cells. Two different statistical models were developed; one based on probability maps and the other applying regression models including Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) models. The regression models were validated with historical census data of the 1840s. From regression models, socio-economic and physical characteristics, accessibility and natural amenities showed significant impacts on the distribution of population. Model validation analysis revealed that GWR is more accurate than OLS models. The generated residential land cover and gridded population datasets can provide a basis for the historical study of population and land use.