Researcher:
Altuğ, Sumru

Profile Picture
ORCID

Job Title

Faculty Member

First Name

Sumru

Last Name

Altuğ

Name

Name Variants

Altuğ, Sumru

Email Address

Birth Date

Filters

Advanced Search

Filter by

Settings

Researcher Of Publications: search.filters.isAuthorOfPublication.cccfb751-1b70-407d-a2a4-fa81a26fb500

Search Results

Now showing 1 - 10 of 25
  • Placeholder
    PublicationMetadata only
    Guest Editor's introduction
    (Taylor & Francis, 2014) Department of Economics; Altuğ, Sumru; Faculty Member; Department of Economics; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; N/A
  • Placeholder
    PublicationMetadata only
    Cost uncertainty, taxation, and irreversible investment
    (Springer-Verlag Berlin, 1999) Demers, FS; Demers, M; Department of Economics; Altuğ, Sumru; Faculty Member; Department of Economics; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; N/A
    We examine the impact of learning about the unknown costs of investment on irreversible investment decisions, and show that the presence of:learning increases the endogenous cost of adjustment and depresses investment. We demonstrate convergence of the state of information and capital stock to the ergodic set. Once learning is complete, in-contrast to the exogenous cost-of-adjustment model, a mean-preserving increase in risk raises the endogenous marginal adjustment cost, reducing investment and the steady-state capital stock. We use data on the U.S. economy to study the impact of uncertainty and risk in the determinants of the costs of investing. Among our Salient findings is that increases in uncertainty have a much larger impact quantitatively on investment than increases in risk. Thus, if firms are unsure about various aspects of the stochastic environment that they face, the reduction in investment is much larger compared to the case in which there are increases in the riskiness in the price of capital or Other determinants of the costs of investing.
  • Placeholder
    PublicationMetadata only
    Forecasting inflation using survey expectations and target inflation: evidence for Brazil and Turkey
    (Elsevier, 2016) Department of Economics; Department of Economics; Altuğ, Sumru; Çakmaklı, Cem; Faculty Member; Faculty Member; Department of Economics; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; N/A; 107818
    In this paper, we formulate a statistical model of inflation that combines data on survey expectations with the inflation target set by central banks. Our model produces inflation forecasts that are aligned with survey expectations, thus integrating the predictive power of the survey expectations into the baseline model. Furthermore, we incorporate the inflation target set by the monetary authority in order to examine the effectiveness of monetary policy in forming inflation expectations, and therefore, in predicting inflation accurately. The results indicate that the predictive power of the proposed framework is superior to that of the model without survey expectations, as well as to the performances of several popular benchmarks, such as the backward- and forward-looking Phillips curves and a naive forecasting rule. (C) 2015 International Institute of Forecasters. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
  • Placeholder
    PublicationMetadata only
    Business cycles in developed and emerging economies: evidence from a univariate markov switching approach
    (Routledge Journals, Taylor & Francis Ltd, 2012) Bildirici, Melike; Department of Economics; Altuğ, Sumru; Faculty Member; Department of Economics; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; N/A
    This paper characterizes business cycle phenomena in a sample of twenty-seven developed and emerging economies using a univariate Markov regime-switching approach. It examines the efficacy of this approach for detecting business cycle turning points and for identifying distinct economic regimes for each country in question. The paper also presents results on business cycle synchronization for the sample of countries under consideration. The findings of the paper have implications for understanding the commonalities and differences in cyclical phenomena for a diverse set of developed and emerging economies.
  • Placeholder
    PublicationMetadata only
    Real business cycles after three decades a panel discussion with Edward Prescott, Finn Kydland, Charles Plosser, John Long, Thomas Cooley, and Gary Hansen
    (Cambridge Univ Press, 2015) Young, Warren; Department of Economics; Altuğ, Sumru; Faculty Member; Department of Economics; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; N/A
    The transcript of a panel discussion marking three decades of the real business cycle approach to macroeconomic analysis as manifested in Kydland and Prescott's "Time to Build" (Econometrica, 1982) and Long and Plosser's "Real Business Cycles" (Journal of Political Economy, 1983). The panel consists of Edward Prescott, Finn Kydland, Charles Plosser, John Long, Thomas Cooley, and Gary Hansen. The discussion is moderated by Sumru Altug and Warren Young. The panel touches on a wide variety of issues related to real business cycle models, including their history and methodology, starting with the work of Prescott and Kydland at Carnegie Tech and Plosser and Long at Rochester; their applications to policy; and their role in the recent financial crisis and likely future. The panel discussion was held in a session sponsored by the History of Economics Society at the Allied Social Sciences Association (ASSA) meetings in the Randle A Room of the Manchester Grand Hyatt Hotel in San Diego, California.
  • Placeholder
    PublicationMetadata only
    The investment tax credit and irreversible investment
    (Louisiana State Univ Pr, 2009) Demers, Fanny S.; Demers, Michel; Department of Economics; Altuğ, Sumru; Faculty Member; Department of Economics; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; N/A
    We examine the impact of random changes in investment tax credit (ITC) policy on the irreversible investment decisions of a monopolistically competitive firm facing demand uncertainty. We examine the impact of increases in risk and changes in persistence in the ITC policy on investment behavior. Our results indicate that a temporary ITC (lower policy persistence) generally increases the variability of investment both in the short and the long-run. It lowers investment in the short-run and raises it in the long-run. Thus, perhaps surprisingly, a temporary ITC does not always lead to higher investment but always leads to more volatile investment. Policy-makers may thus face a long-run trade-off between the level and the volatility of investment. We also find that increases in risk defined in terms of mean-preserving spreads may lead to lower investment. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
  • Placeholder
    PublicationMetadata only
    Political risk and irreversible investment
    (Oxford University Press (OUP), 2007) Demers, Fanny S.; Demers, Michel; Department of Economics; Altuğ, Sumru; Faculty Member; Department of Economics; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; N/A
    The objective of this article is two-fold. First, we develop a theoretical model to investigate the impact of political risk on irreversible investment. Second, we apply our model to an analysis of the effects of risk of separation of the province of Quebec from the Canadian federation. We model the probability of a regime switch using the properties of the electoral process and examine the response of investment to changes in the risk of separation. We consider the impact of investors' perception of the risk of separation and financial market volatility separately. We show that political risk has a depressing impact on investment even if the "bad" regime has never been observed in the sample.
  • Placeholder
    PublicationMetadata only
    Productivity and growth, 1923-2003
    (Routledge, 2006) Filiztekin, Alpay; Department of Economics; Altuğ, Sumru; Faculty Member; Department of Economics; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; N/A
    N/A
  • Placeholder
    PublicationMetadata only
    What has been the role of investment in Turkey’s growth performance?
    (Taylor and Francis, 2009) Zenginobuz, Ünal; Department of Economics; Altuğ, Sumru; Faculty Member; Department of Economics; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; N/A
    Introduction Investment decisions occupy a central role among the determinants of growth. As empirical studies such as Levine and Renelt (1992) have revealed, fixed investment as a share of gross domestic product is the most robust explanatory variable of a country’s growth. DeLong and Summers (1991) also provide evidence emphasizing the correlation of investment in equipment and machinery with growth. New growth theories have been developed that assign a growthsustaining role to investment. Barro (1990) considers a simple endogenous growth model with infrastructure investment. Rebelo (1991) shows that differences in growth rates across countries may be explained by differences in government policy in an endogenous growth model. In Rebelo’s model, changes in certain policy variables such as an increase in the income tax rate decrease the rate of return to investment activities in the private sector and lead to a permanent decline in the rate of capital accumulation and in the rate of growth. Easterly and Rebelo (1993) study the implications of models that link fiscal policy to growth, and find a positive impact of infrastructure investment on growth. Investment is also the most variable component of GDP, and therefore an understanding of its determinants may shed light on the source of cyclical fluctuations. Policy-makers are typically concerned about the ultimate impact of alternative policy measures on investment. In this chapter, we will examine the record of investment and growth for the Turkish economy over the period 1950-2007 in the light of both the neoclassical growth framework and also new growth theories that assign a growth-sustaining role to investment. Until recently, Turkey’s growth performance has been examined in terms of alternative economic policy regimes such as state-led growth, import-substituting industrialization, and economic liberalization including trade and financial liberalization.1 More recently, attention has turned toward understanding the fundamental determinants underlying this performance.2 This analysis has revealed that total factor productivity (TFP) growth has been typically low in Turkey, and that Turkey’s growth has been driven primarily by capital accumulation. Yet a detailed study understanding the factors determining investment performance in Turkey is not readily available. This is an important deficiency because most if not all of the policy proposals regarding the future of the Turkish economy - be they proposals regarding macroeconomic stability or those aimed at ensuring greater competitiveness - have to do with improving the investment environment in Turkey. Various factors affect investment including macroeconomic instability, corruption, the existence of the informal economy, regulatory and tax policy, to name just a few. In an early paper, Mauro (1995) examines the relationship between corruption and growth for a cross-section of countries (including Turkey). He takes into account the endogeneity of various corruption indicators, and finds that corruption and lack of bureaucratic efficiency lower investment, thereby also lowering growth. Farrell (2004) argues that the existence of a large informal sector tends to create an uneven playing field for firms, thereby deterring investment. Tax policy can also affect the level and composition of investment expenditures. New studies for the US show that tax changes have a much stronger impact on real GDP than previously found, and they trace the source of this effect to the strong (negative) impact of the tax change on investment. (Romer and Romer 2007). The investment tax credit (ITC) has been a popular fiscal tool to influence the level of investment for reasons of macro-stabilization or to stimulate specific sectors. In Turkey, incentives of various forms have been implemented to spur exports, to promote a more equal distribution of investment, and to aid regional development. As we describe below, the record of such incentive schemes is decidedly mixed. Furthermore, high tax and regulatory burdens on the formal economy co-exist side-by-side with a large informal economy, creating a negative incentive structure and impeding efforts at creating a more efficient tax and regulatory system. In this chapter, we will study the record of Turkey’s past investment performance over the period 1950-2007. We will also study the sectoral decomposition of investment. We will examine in depth the factors that are thought to be important for determining investment behavior in Turkey. Given the central role that investment plays in growth, the results of our study will have implications for Turkey’s future economic performance, for its ability to converge to per capita income levels of developed countries, and for the viability of its current bid for European Union membership. © 2009 Selection and editorial matter, Ziya Önis and Fikret Şenses.
  • Placeholder
    PublicationMetadata only
    Sources of long-term economic growth for Turkey, 1880-2005
    (Oxford Univ Press, 2008) Filiztekin, Alpay; Pamuk, Şevket; Department of Economics; Altuğ, Sumru; Faculty Member; Department of Economics; College of Administrative Sciences and Economics; N/A
    This article considers the sources of long-term economic growth for Turkey over the period 1880-2005. The period in question covers the decline and eventual dissolution of the former Ottoman Empire and the emergence of the new Turkish Republic in 1923. Hence, the article provides a unique look at the growth experience of these two different political and economic regimes. The article examines in detail the evolution of factors that led to growth in output across broad periods, including the post-World War II period and the era of globalization beginning in the 1980s, It also considers output growth in the agricultural and non-agricultural sectors separately and allows for the effects of sectoral re-allocation. The lessons from this exercise have important implications for Turkey's future economic performance, for its ability to converge to per capita income levels of developed countries, and for the viability of its current bid for European Union membership.