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Does anyone listen when politicians talk? the effect of political commentaries on policy rate decisions and expectations

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dc.contributor.coauthorKing, Sharmila
dc.contributor.coauthorScotti, Chiara
dc.contributor.departmentDepartment of Economics
dc.contributor.kuauthorDemiralp, Selva
dc.contributor.kuprofileFaculty Member
dc.contributor.otherDepartment of Economics
dc.contributor.schoolcollegeinstituteCollege of Administrative Sciences and Economics
dc.contributor.yokid42533
dc.date.accessioned2024-11-09T23:38:47Z
dc.date.issued2019
dc.description.abstractThis paper investigates the effects of political commentaries on policy rate decisions and policy expectations in the United States and the euro area. The results suggest that political commentaries do influence policy rate expectations in both regions, even after controlling for macroeconomic releases and immediate interest rate expectations. During the precrisis period, the European Central Bank seems to have steered its policy in line with political commentaries that suggested further easings, consistent with market expectations. Meanwhile, market participants expected the Fed to tighten policy in response to hawkish comments in the post-2007 period.
dc.description.indexedbyWoS
dc.description.indexedbyScopus
dc.description.openaccessYES
dc.description.publisherscopeInternational
dc.description.sponsoredbyTubitakEuN/A
dc.description.sponsorshipEuropean Union [273677]
dc.description.sponsorshipTUBITAK[215K104] Demiralp's research was sponsored by the European Union's Marie Curie International Outgoing Fellowship (Project No: 273677) and TUBITAK(Project No: 215K104). We would like to thank Michael Ehrmann, anonymous referees, seminar participants at the Federal Reserve Board, the University of the Pacific, and the Norges Bank as well as participants of the 2017 International Association for Applied Econometrics (IAAE) conference for their useful comments. For outstanding research assistance we thank Jacob Baumbach, Jason Beal, Karen Kim, Olivia Kim, and Lauren Whyte. The views expressed in this paper are solely the responsibility of the authors and should not be interpreted as reflecting the views of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System or of any other person associated with the Federal Reserve System
dc.description.volume95
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.jimonfin.2019.03.006
dc.identifier.eissn1873-0639
dc.identifier.issn0261-5606
dc.identifier.quartileQ3
dc.identifier.scopus2-s2.0-85063957735
dc.identifier.urihttp://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2019.03.006
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14288/12992
dc.identifier.wos470075800007
dc.keywordsCentral bank independence
dc.keywordsMarket expectations
dc.keywordsUnconventional policy
dc.languageEnglish
dc.publisherElsevier Sci Ltd
dc.sourceJournal of International Money and Finance
dc.subjectBusiness, finance
dc.titleDoes anyone listen when politicians talk? the effect of political commentaries on policy rate decisions and expectations
dc.typeJournal Article
dspace.entity.typePublication
local.contributor.authorid0000-0003-4087-168X
local.contributor.kuauthorDemiralp, Selva
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relation.isOrgUnitOfPublication.latestForDiscovery7ad2a3bb-d8d9-4cbd-a6a3-3ca4b30b40c3

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