Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction Risk Index predicts one-year mortality in patients with heart failure: an analysis of the SELFIE-TR study

Abstract

Objective: predicting outcomes is an essential part of evaluation in patients with heart failure (HF). While there are multiple individual laboratory and imaging variables, as well as risk scores available for this purpose, they are seldom useful during the initial evaluation. In this analysis, we aimed to understand predictive usefulness of Thrombosis in Myocardial Infarction Risk Index (TIMI-RI), a simple index that is calculated at bedside using three commonly available variables, using data from a multicenter HF registry. Subjects and Methods: a total of 728 patients from 23 centers were included to this analysis. Data on hospitalizations and mortality were collected by direct interviews, phone calls and electronic databases. TIMI-RI was calculated as defined before. Patients were divided into three equal tertiles to perform analyses. Results: rehospitalization for HF was significantly higher in patients within the 3rd tertile, and 33.5% of patients within the 3rd tertile were dead within one-year follow up as compared to 14.5% of patients within the 1st tertile and 15.6% patients within the 2nd tertile (p<0.001, log-rank p<0.001 for pairwise comparisons on survival analysis). A TIMI-RI higher than 33 had a negative predictive value of 84.8% and a positive predictive value of 33.8% for prediction of one-year mortality. This predictive usefulness was independent of other demographic, examination and clinical variables (OR:1.74, 95%CI:1.05-2.86, p=0.036). Conclusion: TIMI-RI is a simple index that predicts one-year mortality in patients with HF, and it could be useful for rapid evaluation and triage of HF patients at the time of initial contact.