Publication: Debating voter defection in Turkey
Program
School / College / Institute
College of Administrative Sciences and Economics
KU-Authors
KU Authors
Co-Authors
Balta, Evren
Demiralp, Seda
Publication Date
Language
Type
Embargo Status
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Alternative Title
Abstract
This study examines patterns of voter defection from Turkey's incumbent AKP amid major economic and democratic decline. As in other electoral autocracies, defectors constitute a small but politically significant group in Turkey, where the opposition's ability to secure a transition from authoritarianism depends on reducing the incumbent's vote share. Based on survey data gathered in November 2021 and February 2022, we find that while the high level of partizanship among AKP voters hinders defection, persistent economic and democratic decline still reduces incumbent support. We also found that defections are higher outside of the lowest income group. Our findings have important implications for opposition strategies in electoral autocracies. Directing public debate away from identity issues to economic and democratic problems increases the likelihood of defection. In addition, offering voters clear superior alternatives decreases the cost of uncertainty that comes with change and increases the likelihood of defection.
Source
Publisher
Routledge Journals, Taylor & Francis Ltd
Subject
Area studies
Citation
Has Part
Source
Turkish Studies
Book Series Title
Edition
DOI
10.1080/14683849.2023.2200941