The Polarised electorate: affective polarisation and electoral loyalty in Turkey's 2023 critical election

Abstract

Contemporary politics face rising affective polarisation – hostility and distrust across partisan lines. This study examines the contours and consequences of polarisation in Turkey ahead of the 2023 general election. While Turkey ranks among the world’s most polarised societies, individual-level analyses remain scarce. Using nationally-representative survey data, we reveal significant variation in polarisation across party supporters, with notably high levels among incumbent AKP and pro-Kurdish HDP supporters. Polarisation increases with age, political interest, and social media use, while decreasing with education. Crucially, affective polarisation significantly bolstered AKP voter loyalty, likely contributing to the party’s electoral success despite severe economic and social challenges. These findings have important implications for understanding electoral accountability in polarised societies and affective polarisation’s role in democratic backsliding.