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Causal loop diagrams as a de-escalation technique

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Vriens, Dirk J.
Vennix, Jac A. M.

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Abstract

Escalation of commitment, the tendency of decision makers to keep on investing in losing courses of action, has been shown to be a costly decision bias that affects many areas of decision making. Even though escalation is a widely studied phenomenon, there has been comparatively little research on how to avoid this bias. The present study focuses on de-escalation of commitment and proposes that causal loop diagrams (CLDs) can help to decrease escalating commitment to a failing course of action. By means of an experiment, this study shows that using a CLD decreases escalation tendencies.

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Taylor & Francis Ltd

Subject

Management, Operations research, Management science

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Journal of The Operational Research Society

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DOI

10.1057/jors.2014.24

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