Machine learning-assisted plasma PEA proteomics enables differential diagnosis of melancholic depression and bipolar disorder

Abstract

Differentiating bipolar disorder (BD) from major depressive disorder (MDD) remains a critical unmet need in psychiatry due to overlapping clinical presentations and the absence of reliable biological markers. In this study, we assessed the capacity of multivariate machine learning models to accurately differentiate BD from MDD with melancholic features using plasma proteomic profiles obtained via Proximity Extension Assay (PEA) technology. A total of 67 participants were included (23 BD, 20 MDD, and 24 HC), and plasma protein expression was assessed using the Olink Target 96 Neurology panel. Differential proteomic analysis revealed distinct disorder-specific expression patterns, identifying 21 differentially expressed proteins in BD versus MDD, 18 in BD versus healthy controls, and 7 in MDD versus healthy controls. Using a stepwise feature reduction strategy, machine learning models were trained on three feature sets comprising all proteins, the top 20 most informative proteins, and the top 5 most beneficial proteins, and evaluated across BD-MDD, BD-HC, and MDD-HC classification tasks using five algorithms. For BD-MDD discrimination, the Random Forest model achieved the highest performance when trained on the top 5 protein set (LXN, HAGH, MATN3, PLXNB1, and CTSC), yielding an AUC of 0.905, with similarly strong performance observed using the top 20 protein set. Feature importance analysis highlighted proteins involved in neurodevelopmental processes, immune regulation, and extracellular matrix organization. Overall, these findings demonstrate that integrating plasma proteomics with machine learning enables robust differentiation between BD and MDD with melancholic features, supporting the development of scalable and biologically informed diagnostic tools for precision psychiatry.