Publication: Identifying leading indicators of real activity and inflation for Turkey, 1988-2010: a pseudo out-of-sample forecasting approach
Program
KU-Authors
KU Authors
Co-Authors
Uluceviz, Erhan
Publication Date
Language
Type
Embargo Status
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Alternative Title
Abstract
This paper develops a set of leading indicators for industrial production growth and changes in consumer price inflation by accounting for changes in the policy regime that have occurred for the Turkish economy over the sample period 1988-2010. The choice of indicators is based on a pseudo out-of-sample forecasting exercise that is implemented by Leigh and Rossi (2002), and Stock and Watson (2003), amongst others. Our findings provide evidence on the factors determining changes in real activity and inflation over an extended sample period that encompasses episodes of volatile inflation and output growth as well as the recent experience of disinflation and normalisation for the Turkish economy.
Source
Publisher
Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD)
Subject
General business, Management, Accounting
Citation
Has Part
Source
OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis
Book Series Title
Edition
DOI
10.1787/jbcma-2013-5k4221j86n8v